Jakarta, August 30, 2024 – The Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF) has submitted an initial draft of the Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC) or Second NDC document at a public consultation (07/20/2024). Looking at the SNDC draft, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) assesses that Indonesia’s climate target has not shown the most optimal emission reduction ambition, in accordance with the country’s obligations and capabilities, in line with the 1.5° C global temperature limit. Meanwhile, global temperature rise continues and has caused social and economic losses. Based on Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates, the current 2030 climate targets set by countries, if fully implemented, will trigger a global temperature increase of 2.5°C by the end of this century.

IESR believes that the climate crisis should be seen as an urgent and critical situation that requires ambitious climate action in all sectors. In addition, the SNDC needs to prioritize fair, credible and transparent aspects in its preparation and implementation.

The Executive Director of IESR, Fabby Tumiwa said that the ambitious emission reduction target is reflected in its alignment with the Paris Agreement target to limit global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. For this reason, Fabby encourages the Indonesian government to strengthen the 2030 emission reduction target in accordance with the Paris Agreement and improve the NDC target, especially in the conditional target (conditional, with international assistance). 

Referring to the CAT, to align with 1.5°C, Indonesia needs to set an unconditional NDC target of 817 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2030. Then, in the conditional NDC of 771 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year in 2030, and 647 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2035 (figures in GWP IPCC AR5), outside the forestry and land use (FOLU) sectors. Unfortunately, according to Fabby, in the energy sector, one of the government’s mitigation actions has not been in line with these emission limits. In addition, mitigation actions are also still reluctant to move to clean energy and rely on the use of carbon storage (Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS) technology in coal power plants. This technology is considered a high-efficiency and low-emissions (HELE) plant that is still doubtful in its effectiveness in cutting greenhouse gas emissions.   

“This mitigation action contradicts government policy as outlined in Presidential Regulation 112/2022. This regulation includes a plan to end coal-fired power plants and prohibit the construction of new power plants, except for coal-fired power plants for industry (captive). For this reason, the government needs to clarify this HELE-based mitigation action, specifically stipulating that the application of HELE technology must be in accordance with feasibility and can only be carried out on captive PLTU,” Fabby explained.  He emphasized that the draft SNDC also contains elements of the PLTU early retirement plan in accordance with the road map prepared by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.

In addition, IESR also encourages serious commitments and plans to increase the renewable energy mix to 45 percent by 2030 to meet the targets in the Paris Agreement. Fabby reminded that according to the COP-28 agreement in Dubai, the world must triple global renewable energy capacity equivalent to 11.5 TW and double energy efficiency by 2030. Indonesia should support this agreement. 

Coordinator of Climate Policy Project, IESR, Delima Ramadhani said that besides being ambitious, the SNDC must be fair, credible and transparent. The draft SNDC will contain a sub-chapter on just transition. IESR views that the things that must be included in the sub-chapter include community involvement in participatory dialogue, prioritizing equality, and clarity of implementation in the form of the availability of social safety networks, and support for affected workers. 

“A just transition needs to start by recognizing that there are factors such as gender and age that may prevent a group from participating fairly. This recognition must be accompanied by the implementation of policies that ensure all groups receive fair treatment and the necessary support during the transition,” Delima said.

In terms of credibility, IESR encourages that the draft SNDC is accompanied by a serious and clear political commitment from the government in addressing the climate crisis and removing policies that contradict emission reduction mitigation actions. In addition, the mainstreaming of NDC needs to be done in the planning of all sectoral policies. 

IESR also encourages the government to be transparent in setting and measuring targets as well as in implementation and international cooperation. In terms of implementation and international cooperation, the government, among others, needs to clarify Indonesia’s contribution to methane emission reduction, in accordance with the Global Methane Pledge commitment at COP26 in Glasgow.

“The government announced on August 20, 2024, that the SNDC will be aligned with the 1.5°C target. However, the government needs to be transparent about the assumptions underlying Indonesia’s ‘fair contribution’ to the 1.5°C target. This includes how aspects of equity are reflected in the setting and consideration of the target, whether it is in accordance with the country’s obligations and capacity in global climate mitigation efforts,” Delima explained.

In summary, IESR recommends four key elements that must be considered in the preparation of the SNDC. First, Indonesia’s climate target in 2030 should be ambitious and aligned with the global pathway to zero carbon emissions by 2050. Second, Indonesia needs to communicate in detail and transparently the need for climate finance to achieve a conditional NDC in line with the 1.5°C target, and incorporate the meaning and principles of just transition in the SNDC. Third, the government needs to demonstrate credibility in climate crisis mitigation by showing a strong and clear political commitment to decarbonization efforts. Fourth, the government should increase the transparency of Indonesia’s climate targets by including all GHGs and targeting all economic sectors.  

Also read the CAT article: Indonesia’s new climate goals: positive developments but some red flags