Study Launching Results of 100% Renewable Energy Based Island and Flexibility in Electric Power System
Background
In the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC) report, the Indonesian government targets that by 2030, emission reduction in the energy sector will reach 358 million tons of CO2eq with its own efforts (CM1). In line with this goal, the Indonesian government is also committed to achieving Net-Zero Emission in the energy sector by 2060 or sooner. To achieve this target, in the electricity sub-sector, the government has issued the National Electricity General Plan (RUKN). Based on the RUKN, the installed capacity needed to achieve NZE in 2060 is around 443 GW consisting of 41.5% variable renewable energy (VRE) generators, equipped with energy storage reaching 34 GW, and 58.5% dispatchable generators (not VRE). To achieve the target in the RUKN, the government needs to build a super grid that connects all national electricity systems, which are currently isolated due to geographical conditions.
However, based on the achievement report of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the installed capacity mix of renewable energy (ET) in the electricity system at the end of 2024 only reached 14.89 GW (15% of the total national capacity), of which around 1.1 GW came from VRE power plants. The slow development of ET needs to be accelerated so that the target in the RUKN can be achieved. In addition, the intermittency inherent in VRE power plants is often used as an excuse for the slow development of VRE in Indonesia. Therefore, a solution through strengthening the electricity infrastructure must be sought first so that massive integration of VRE power plants can be accommodated. In accordance with the RUKN, the investment needed to strengthen the national electricity network, including interconnection between provinces or between islands, reaches 2.87 billion USD/year.
As a think tank, IESR has currently completed a study on the potential of islands in Indonesia that independently, not connected to the main system, can be fully supplied (100%) by renewable energy power plants. The results of the study, with the best scenario, on Timor Island in East Nusa Tenggara Province (NTT) and Sumbawa Island in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) show that both islands are able to be fully supplied by RE power plants and achieve the target of net zero emissions in 2050. For Timor Island in NTT, the total installed capacity of RE power plants in 2050 reaches 6.2 GW with 97.1% dominated by solar and the rest consisting of wind (1.3%), hydro (0.7%), biomass (0.7%), and geothermal (0.2%). To support the full supply of renewable energy, the system on Timor Island needs to be equipped with a battery energy storage system (BESS) with a total capacity of 14.14 GW. The investment needed for Timor Island to be independent with 100% renewable energy is around 186 million USD/year from 2026-2050.
Meanwhile, for Sumbawa Island in NTB, the total installed capacity of RE generators in 2050 will reach 2.23 GW, dominated by solar (65.31%), wind (21.52%), hydrogen (5.84%), biomass (2.69%), mini hydro (2.21%), geothermal (1.35%), waves (0.45%), and ammonia (0.63%). Meanwhile, the total BESS capacity required is 1.96 GW. Every year, the investment required so that Sumbawa Island can be 100% supplied by RE generators in the period 2026-2050 is 197 million USD/year.
In addition, to ensure that the massive integration of VRE generators can be accommodated by the electric power system, IESR has also completed a study on flexibility analysis in the electric power system that focuses on the generation side. Taking a case study on Sulawesi Island, the results of the study on the flexibility of electricity show that in 2060 the total energy generated in the Sulawesi system will reach 119 TWh with 42%, or around 49.6 TWh, coming from VRE generators in the form of solar and wind. With the dominance of electricity generated by VRE, the role of BESS becomes very crucial in maintaining the reliability of the Sulawesi system, with a share reaching 72% of the total flexibility supply, on a daily time scale. Meanwhile, interconnection (electricity imports from the Kalimantan and Nusa Tenggara systems) and other dispatchable generators, such as hydro and bioenergy, also play a major role in meeting flexibility needs on a weekly and seasonal time scale. The flexibility cost to maintain reliability in the Sulawesi system in 2060 ranges from 3.59 – 9.64 c-USD / kWh. This price is greatly influenced by the percentage of flexibility supply that can be provided by interconnection or dispatchable generators. The greater the percentage of flexibility supply from interconnection, the cheaper the system flexibility cost will tend to be.
Based on the findings obtained from the two studies, IESR intends to launch and disseminate a study entitled Launch of the Results of the Study on Islands Based on 100% Renewable Energy and Flexibility in the Electric Power System.
Objective
This event was held with the following objectives:
- Disseminating the results of the study on 100% Renewable Energy Based Islands (Timor Island in NTT and Sumbawa Island in NTB) and Flexibility in the Electric Power System in Sulawesi.
- Discussing and exploring opinions from each relevant stakeholder regarding the recommendations from the study results.
Speakers
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Fabby Tumiwa - Direktur Eksekutif IESR
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Prof. Dr. Eng. Eniya Listiani Dewi - Director General of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
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Dr. Farah Heliantina - Assistant Deputy for Energy Transition Acceleration
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Isaac Portugal - Renewable Integration Security Unit - IEA
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Alvin Sisdwinugraha - Power Systems and Renewable Energy Analyst - IESR
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His Muhammad Bintang - Power and Energy Resources Coordinator - IESR
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Abraham Octama - Power System Analyst - IESR
