COP30 Debrief Webinar: Assessing Indonesia’s Climate Ambition, Climate Finance, and Just Transition

The UNFCCC COP30, held in Belém, Brazil, is significant because it coincides with the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement. Although progress has been made since its signing in 2015 in efforts to limit global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, or to achieve the 1.5-degree target, these efforts are still considered insufficient from various perspectives. The Climate Analytics (2025) report assesses a significant gap between the national commitments of UNFCCC parties and the emission reductions required to achieve the Paris Agreement target. Furthermore, funding is needed to align with the 1.5-degree target, namely $7.5 trillion per year from 2025 to 2030, and $8.8 trillion per year from 2031 to 2050 (CPI, 2025). Furthermore, the just transition aspect is crucial to ensure that no one is left behind in the implementation of climate policy. Therefore, the draft text of the COP “Global Mutriaou” decision is expected to produce guidelines that can provide direction for more ambitious climate support and implementation and serve as a reference for the world, including Indonesia.

In the context of global climate commitments, there is an expectation that all parties will submit their latest climate commitments (NDC 3.0) by 2025. The UNFCCC Secretariat report indicates that 64 of the 194 parties have submitted their latest climate commitments, concluding that efforts to achieve the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement still need to be pushed forward (UNFCCC, 2025). Indonesia submitted its Second Nationally Determined Contributions (SNDC) document in October 2025, but this latest climate document needs to be improved as it is deemed not yet in line with the 1.5-degree target of the Paris Agreement and does not reflect the President’s commitment to 100% renewable energy by 2035 (DPR, 2025). Several elements need to be improved, such as accelerating peak emissions in the energy sector, increasing the percentage of renewable energy, and including the Global Methane Pledge as a component of the SNDC.

In the context of climate finance, the negotiation agenda focused on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which agreed to mobilize funding for developing countries of $300 billion per year by 2035, leading to discussions on the Roadmap to Belem to $1.5 trillion (Carbon Brief, 2024; COP30, 2025). Although the figures are indicative, several reports state that these commitments fall far short of what Global South countries need to implement climate plans, adapt to the impacts of climate change, and transition to a green economy (CPI, 2025; UNDP, 2025). Beyond the negotiation aspect, Brazil, as host of COP30, launched the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), a global initiative to provide a sustainable financing platform for tropical forest countries, supported by Indonesia (Ministry of Forestry, 2025). Indonesia’s involvement in the TFFF can be interpreted as a major effort to close the climate finance gap, with a requirement of $285 billion for 2018-2030 (Indonesia’s 3rd BUR, 2021) and $427 billion for the implementation of the SNDC (SNDC, 2025).

Furthermore, equity needs to be highlighted to ensure that climate change mitigation actions take into account vulnerable and affected groups (World Bank, 2025). As a follow-up, to ensure the transition to a low-carbon economy does not increase inequality, COP28 produced the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) – this program is designed to be people-centered, encourage social dialogue, and create quality jobs while mitigating undesirable socioeconomic impacts, such as workforce displacement (WRI, 2024). Outstanding issues currently being negotiated in the JTWP include: funding and institutional frameworks, trade disputes (for example, the existence of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), and implementation to ensure inclusiveness and equity.

Considering this background, the Institute for Essential Services Reform intends to hold a discussion entitled “COP30 Debrief: Measuring Indonesia’s Climate Ambition, Climate Finance, and Just Transition” as a dialogue platform to discuss the COP30 outcomes, their implications for Indonesia, and what Indonesia needs to do immediately.

Objective

1. Serve as a platform to share views on the COP30 outcomes related to climate ambition, climate finance, and a just transition.
2. To discuss the implications of the COP30 outcomes for climate policy in Indonesia, including identifying key elements of COP30 that can be promoted to strengthen Indonesia’s climate commitments and implement a more ambitious climate plan.
3. To analyze and disseminate key COP39 findings to the public.