Indonesia’s energy transition is entering a crucial phase. As global energy systems rapidly pivot toward decarbonization and coal demand declines, the commodity’s role in Indonesia’s economy, fiscal structure, and electricity system is beginning a fundamental shift.

This report, The Coal Impact Tracker, provides the deep analytical foundation needed to navigate this change. With coal export revenues dropping over 21% in the first half of 2025 and IEA projections showing a stabilization followed by a decline in global demand, Indonesia’s coal sector faces significant structural pressure. Coal’s vital contribution (approximately 3.6% of GDP and cumulative profits of over USD 31 billion from 2019–2023) is now set against structural vulnerabilities, including fiscal dependence, employment concentration, environmental degradation, and infrastructure lock-in.

This IESR study integrates subnational data, scenario-based fiscal projections, and the Coal Transition Vulnerability Index (CTVI). The key finding confirms: Indonesia’s transition will be shaped at the provincial level. Major producing regions in Kalimantan and Sumatra face substantial fiscal risks, while non-producing areas like Banten and East Java remain deeply integrated into coal-based electricity systems.

The report emphasizes the need for regionally tailored strategies, enhanced institutional coordination, and data transparency to ensure a transition that is just, economically viable, and environmentally sustainable.

Indonesia Energy Transition, Coal, Decarbonization, Net-Zero Policy, Coal Transition Vulnerability Index (CTVI), Fiscal Risk, Non-Tax State Revenue (NTSR) Projections, Regional Coal Impact, IESR, Indonesia Electricity System, Just Transition, Kalimantan, Sumatra, Coal GDP.