Climate Transparency Report 2021: Real Climate Change Impacts, Indonesia Needs to Increase its Climate Action

Jakarta, 28 October 2021 – A few days before COP 26 in Glasgow, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) launched the Climate Transparency Report, Country Profile of Indonesia 2021. In particular, this annual report on climate action by the G20 countries, highlights Indonesia’s climate action. which includes adaptation, mitigation and financial mobilization to address climate change.

IESR Executive Director, Fabby Tumiwa, in his speech said that the launch of the Climate Transparency report is very relevant to COP26 because this report measures whether Indonesia’s climate action achievements are in line with the Paris Agreement targets or not.

“We only have less than a decade left to ensure a global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Indonesia is also highlighted because we are a member of the G20, also because Indonesia is ranked in the top 10 largest emitting countries in the world, “explained Fabby.

For this reason, according to Emil Salim, Professor of the Faculty of Economics at UI who is also an environmentalist, policy makers in Indonesia need to establish political policies that are able to reduce carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 for the survival of future generations.

“The fate of the younger generation in 2050 depends on the political decisions we make now. Don’t just think about the current economic benefits, because it’s the younger generation who will bear the consequences of the choices they don’t make. Think about what will happen to the Indonesian people if the impact of climate change gets worse,” said Emil Salim.

Presenting the report on Indonesia’s climate action, Lisa Wijayani, Green Economy Program Manager, IESR underlined that Indonesia’s climate action is categorized as “highly insufficient” in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The use of fossil energy reaches 82% in 2020 making the energy sector the largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Indonesia (45.7% in addition to emissions from forests and land use).

Based on the findings of Climate Transparency, Lisa explained that 2020 should be the peak of coal use and from 2030-2040 its use should be gradually reduced until it is no longer used. 

“In addition, to reduce emissions from the transportation sector, Indonesia must increase the use of renewable energy by 40-60% in 2040 or 70-90% in 2050,” explained Lisa regarding the second largest emitting sub-sector;  transportation.

The Climate Transparency report also encourages ecosystems that support the development of renewable energy, including by halting subsidies on fossil energy.

“Removal of subsidies will help renewable energy compete with fossil energy,” added Lisa.

In terms of the impact of climate change on health, Budi Haryanto, Epidemiologist at the University of Indonesia, explained the high mortality rate due to the increase in the earth’s temperature.

“It is estimated that in 2030-2050, climate change will cause an additional million deaths per year due to malnutrition, malaria, and stress due to heat waves,” he explained.

Furthermore, Budi encourages the government, especially the Ministry of Health to have health data related to climate change adaptation.

In frequency, climate-related disasters are increasing. This was conveyed by Raditya Jati, Deputy of System and Strategy, National Disaster Management Agency. He added that Indonesia as an archipelagic country has a fairly high risk of natural disasters.

“7 out of 10 disasters that occur are hydrometeorological disasters and the frequency this year is higher than 2020,” said Raditya.

In order to significantly reduce GHG emissions, transformation also needs to be carried out in the economic sector, by shifting to a green economy. Eka Chandra Buana, Director of Macroeconomic Planning and Statistical Analysis, Bappenas said that the green economy is a game changer for the Indonesian economy after Covid-19. According to him, low-carbon development by utilizing renewable energy will be the backbone to achieve Indonesia’s green economy targets and net-zero emissions by 2060.

“Based on our calculation, to achieve net-zero in 2060, Indonesia must increase the use of new and renewable energy to 70% in 2050, and 87% in 2060. This calculation is still in process,” said Eka Chandra. 

The success of low-carbon development certainly requires the participation of all parties, especially the city government. Bernardia Tjandradewi, Secretary General of United Cities and Local Governments Asia Pacific (UCLG ASPAC) said that the responsibility of city governments is vital, especially statistically, 60-80% of greenhouse gas emissions in the world are generated in urban areas.

 

“UCLG ASPAC encourages the role of regional heads (mayors) in dealing with climate change by providing training to city governments on climate action planning, access to climate-related finance, and the adoption and development of monitoring tools,” explained Bernardia.

 

Whatever the solution to reducing GHG emissions, including transitioning energy to renewable energy, it must be done fairly. Desi Ayu Pirnasari, Researcher at the University of Leeds, emphasized that an equitable transition will shape climate resilience and social inclusion in society.

 

“The strategy should prioritize community participation to increase ownership on our agenda, to help us achieve our targets. Climate justice is not only about mitigation or action, but also to improve the living standards of vulnerable people,” she stressed.

Mapping the Potential of Renewable Energy in Indonesia for a More Precise Energy Transition Planning

Jakarta, October 25, 2021 – In order to encourage the acceleration of renewable energy development, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) launched a study entitled “Beyond 443 GW: Indonesia’s Infinite Renewables Energy Potentials”. This study contains data on mapping the technical potential of renewable energy in Indonesia using a Geographical Information System (GIS).

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, in his opening speech hoped that this study could be a constructive input for the government and policy makers in planning and allocating their resources to utilize the potential of renewable energy as much as possible, both in terms of policy regulations and support from the State Budget.

“We hope that this potential mapping will also help local governments who are mandated to take advantage of the potential of renewable energy resources. They are also expected to encourage the use of renewable energy so that efforts to achieve decarbonization can be carried out together,” said Fabby.

This study states a total up to 7,879.4 GW (scenario 1) or 6,811.3 GW (scenario 2) renewable energy potential in Indonesia. It consists of solar (7,714.6 GW scenario 1 and 6,749.3 GW scenario 2), micro hydro ( 28.1 GW scenario 1 and 6.3 GW scenario 2), wind (19.8 GW – 106 GW), and biomass (30.73 GW).

Handriyanti Diah Puspitarini, the author of the ‘Beyond 443 GW’ study, in her presentation explained that the potential data was higher than the one stated in the National Energy General Plan (RUEN) document of 443 GW.

“The potential for renewable energy in Indonesia is very abundant, even more than what is needed to achieve deep decarbonization (or the 2050 zero emission target),” explained Handriyanti.

Through this ‘Beyond 443 GW’ study, IESR recommends the government to (1) update and review data on the technical potential of renewable energy on a regular basis as technology develops; (2) complete the necessary technical potential map with a brief analysis of the intermittent, variability, and network readiness; (3) consider a decentralized system and inter-island connections to ensure access and availability of electricity from renewable energy; (4) provide support for renewable energy technology innovations in order to open up greater utilization opportunities. 

Present as a responder, Hariyanto, Head of the Center for Research and Technology Development (P3TEK) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, stated that the results of this study could enrich the data on renewable energy potential because the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is currently updating the technical potential data for renewable energy in Indonesia including solar, wind and solar, hydro, and bioenergy.

“From the results presented, currently there are the same numbers and there are different ones because I see there are different assumptions and scenarios. For example, the solar potential, which was originally 207.8 GW when updated, has a potential of 189 – 3,294.4 GW with various assumptions. We will still discuss with all stakeholders whether this figure can be put into practice,” explained Hariyanto.

Djoko Siswanto, Secretary General of the National Energy Council, welcomed this study and stated that the results of this study and the data currently being updated by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources could be the basis for national and local governments in developing renewable energy. According to him, the national government can use the results of the latest renewable energy technical potential mapping as a consideration in the preparation of the National Grand Strategy Energy (GSEN), which is currently being carried out by the DEN.

Meanwhile, for local governments, the results of this mapping can be used as a basis for preparing the General Regional Energy Plan (RUED).

“DEN is currently facilitating the regions to draw up Perda RUED. The results of this mapping will be very useful in drafting Perda RUED which will later become the basis for Regional Governments in developing renewables in their respective regions,” Djoko added.

Still on the same occasion, Chairman of the Indonesian Renewable Energy Society (METI), Surya Darma stressed the importance of always updating data on potential renewable energy on a regular basis.

“The rapid development of technology and the different assumptions used can make the numbers fluctuate, but that’s okay. Our task is to find alternatives so that these potentials can be realized and really utilized,” said Surya Darma.

IESR: Beware of Emissions in the Energy Sector, Special Strategies Are Needed to Reduce Emissions

Jakarta, 21 October 2021 – In the 26th Conference of Parties to be held in Glasgow on 31 October – 10 November 2021, the Government of Indonesia carries four main agendas, namely NDC Implementation, Fulfillment/Completion of the Paris Rule Book, Long Term Strategy 2050, and Net-Zero Emission goal.

On this occasion, Indonesia will highlight the reduced rate of deforestation in the last 5 years and efforts to restore peatlands. In addition, efforts to reduce emissions in the energy sector will also be discussed, such as providing a larger portion of renewable energy in the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL).

Hari Prabowo, Director of Development, Economy and Environment, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in the webinar entitled “The Road to COP26 A Climate Superpower Indonesia; Collaborative Efforts to Tackle Climate Crisis” organized by Katadata and Landscape Indonesia, explained that Indonesia will bring a positive and openness to take part in efforts to control climate change.

“Basically, Indonesia is ready to be part of the solution and will be leading by example. We have good achievements in the forestry sector and continue to strive to reduce emissions in various fields,” he explained.

Hari Prabowo emphasized that in overcoming the climate crisis it is time for us to avoid naming and shaming, i.e feeling that our country is better at dealing with climate change than other countries.

“We must show the initiative to play a role in tackling climate change without blaming which party should be more responsible. This climate change requires the collaboration of all parties to ensure that our big goals are achieved,” he concluded.

On the other hand, on the same occasion, the Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Fabby Tumiwa stated that Indonesia should be more ambitious in setting targets for climate control and emission reduction.

“If we look at the latest NDC document that was submitted to the UNFCCC, Indonesia’s main target for the energy sector is still not ambitious. To suppress the increase in the earth’s temperature to only 1.5 degrees, in 2030 IESR calculates that 70% of the power generation mix must be from renewable energy, if we look at the NDC or other plans such as the RUPTL, it seems that this target has not been achieved, “said Fabby. 

Fabby agreed that the forestry and land use change (AFOLU) sector as the largest emitter (60%) in Indonesia is a priority sector to reduce emissions. However, other sectors such as energy are predicted to produce greater emissions than the AFOLU after 2024-2025, and by 2030 will become the dominant emission source in Indonesia, thus it requires special attention and strategies for reducing emissions in the energy sector.

Fabby also mentioned that the financial need for climate management is huge. In the energy sector alone, it takes USD 30-40 billion per year until 2030. The next period, 2030-2050 investment needs will increase to USD 50-60 billion per year. Indonesia must pursue the commitment of developed countries to provide financial assistance for the climate crisis to developing countries.

Dharsono Hartono, President Director of Rimba Makmur Utama, added that Indonesia has a strategic role in climate crisis control diplomacy. According to him, as a country that has a large tropical rain forest and the largest peatland area, Indonesia’s responsibility in maintaining the increase in the earth’s temperature is very crucial.

“Without Indonesia contributing to global efforts to tackle climate change, the target of the Paris Agreement will not be achieved,” said Dharsono. 

Climate Change: An all aspects of life crisis requires all parties participation

Jakarta, 19 October 2021 – Two weeks before the Conference of the Parties (COP) 26 in Glasgow, climate issues are widely discussed in Indonesia, one of which is to raise public voices and provide input to the Indonesian government, which is planned to be attended by President Joko Widodo to increase Indonesia’s climate ambitions.

Indonesia has renewed its climate commitments through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) document which is complemented by the LTS-LCCR (Long Term Strategy – Low Carbon Climate Resilience) document. In terms of numbers, Indonesia did not raise its ambition any further, namely to stay at 29% with its own efforts and 41% with international assistance. Indonesia is also committed to becoming net-zero emissions by 2060 or sooner. Unfortunately, this effort is not enough to bring Indonesia to keep the earth’s average temperature increase of no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In a webinar entitled “Towards COP26: Climate change and the role of the public in preserving the earth”, Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute of Essential Services Reform (IESR) explained that since the 1880s Indonesia has always been included in the top 10 largest emitting countries (Carbon Brief).

“We should see this responsibility to reduce emissions not as a burden but also as an opportunity to carry out a low-carbon economic transformation. The results of the IESR study show that decarbonization in 2050 will actually bring greater economic benefits, because in addition to creating new industrial opportunities and greater employment, Indonesia’s energy prices will be more affordable as well as social and economic benefits that can be felt such as cleaner air and reduce the threat of hydrometeorological disasters due to climate change,” explained Fabby.

Muhamad Ali Yusuf, Chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Disaster Management and Climate Change Institute, explained that in terms of religious-based community organizations communicating the issue of climate change is challenging because the public in general will care about the problems that are in front of their eyes, so we need down to earths and contextual way to talk about climate change in the community.

“On the other hand, our religious discourse is still far from ecological issues such as climate change. Even if it already exists, it has not become a priority issue. So actually literacy on climate change is also necessary for religious leaders,” he explained.

Executive Secretary for Witness and Integrity of Creation, Communion of Indonesian Churches (PGI), Pastor Jimmy Sormin added that religious leaders and figures have a strategic role to influence the views and behavior of the people and have a significant impact on influencing people’s mindsets and perspectives.

“So you must be creative to convey climate change,” explained Pastor Jimmy.

Information on climate change must be disseminated to the wider community without exception, because when the impacts of climate change such as hydrometeorological disasters appear, all residents will be affected.

Mike Verawati, Secretary General, Indonesian Women’s Coalition, explained that women are the ones most affected by climate change because our policies and systems are not inclusive. Citizens’ needs are seen as neutral needs.

“Climate, infrastructure, and nature issues are usually considered as big narratives or masculine issues, so in the end this issue is considered not a women’s issue even though they know the details and are actively advocating, even though sometimes they can’t explain it scientifically,” explained Mike.

Not only women but young people also need to be involved in policy-making efforts to tackle climate change. As the generation that will live in the future, it is these young people who will bear the impact of the climate crisis that is not taken seriously in the future.

“The Indonesian government already has a commitment to reduce emissions, become net-zero by 2060, and overcome the climate crisis. However, this commitment is not enough to overcome this climate crisis, several policy products issued by the government such as the Minerba Law, Food Estate, and the Omnibus Law are counter-productive to efforts to tackle the climate crisis,” explained Melissa Kowara, Extinction Rebellion Indonesia’s Activist.

Melissa also highlighted the lack of literacy about climate change for the wider community. This makes people seem silent or passive because they do not understand the context.

Anticipating rising emissions, Indonesia climate action is considered highly insufficient

Jakarta, 28 Oktober 2021– Indonesia has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) document. However, Indonesia’s target to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 is assessed as “highly insufficient”. This shows that Indonesia’s climate policies and actions are still leading to increased emissions. To be compatible with the Paris Agreement, Indonesia needs to set more ambitious targets and policies, notably in sectors that contribute to increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost the flow of international climate-related finance.

Throughout 2019, the energy sector was still the largest contributor to GHG emissions (45.7% except for the FOLU or forest and land-use sector). The power generation sub-sector is responsible for 35% of GHG emissions, followed by transportation and industry with 27% each. The Climate Transparency Report 2021 states that although Indonesia has proposed increasing renewable energy in terms of electricity, transportation, and industry, there is no strategy to phase out coal gradually and unavailable policies that encourage competition for renewable energy with coal. Climate Transparency Report 2021- the world’s most comprehensive annual record and comparison of G20 countries’ climate action, even projecting that Indonesia’s post-pandemic GHG emissions will soar beyond the emission level in 2019 as the revival of economic activity.

“Based on the IESR study, at the very least, to be compatible with the Paris Agreement, the reduction of carbon emissions in the energy sector should be above 500 million tons,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) at the launch of the Climate Transparency Report, Country Profile of Indonesia 2021.

Fabby explained that there are three strategies that the Indonesian government can take to reduce GHG emissions from the emission sector.

“First, increasing the renewable energy mix. It must reach 50% in 2030. Second, fostering energy efficiency, remarkably from the transportation sector. Our energy consumption per capita for electricity is relatively low, while the demand for transportation fuels is very high, and it is a contributor to highest emissions,” he said.

Furthermore, Fabby said that early retirement of at least 10 GW of coal-fired power plants (CFPP) or not extending the contract would be effective in reducing emissions.

Until 2020, Indonesia’s electricity sector will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels (82%), with coal accounting for the highest share (62%) in electricity generation 2020. As a result, the emission intensity of the electricity sector for five years from 2015-2020 has not changed significantly, only decreasing by 1%. Meanwhile, the average of G20 member countries has declined 10 times faster.

The Indonesian government has not yet fully implemented its commitment to reduce emissions from coal. To meet the carbon-neutral goal by 2060, the government has announced that they would not build a new coal-fired power plant after 2023. However, at the same time, around 2 GW of coal capacity has started operating. Moreover, in the NDC, Indonesia promised to reduce coal by 30% by 2025 and 25% by 2050. Meanwhile, according to the analysis of the Climate Transparency Report 2021, electricity generation from coal must even reach its peak in 2020 and need to stop coal completely by 2037 to align with the temperature rise limiting path at 1.5°C.

To reduce GHG emissions, a large amount of funding is needed. Therefore, public funding must have started to lead to actions that can tackle climate change more seriously.

“Therefore, subsidies in the fossil energy sector must begin to stop and accelerate the energy transition through renewable energy funding,” said Lisa Wijayani, Green Economy Program Manager, IESR.

In her opinion, investment in green energy and its infrastructure needs to be greater than in fossil fuels in 2025. So far, Indonesia has spent 8.6 billion USD on fossil fuel subsidies in 2019, 21.96% of them on petroleum and 38,48% on electricity.

Furthermore, Lisa added that the implementation of a carbon tax can be a good start in encouraging efforts to reduce GHG emissions, which are mainly contributed by the electricity, transportation, and industrial sectors as the largest emitters in Indonesia in the energy sector.

“However, there needs to be a more feasible mechanism so that the implementation of a carbon tax can reduce emissions significantly and promote a climate-resilient economy through even greater efforts, for instance, through carbon trading,” Lisa said

IESR Launches the Study of Renewable Energy Technical Potential Map Study in Indonesia

Jakarta, October 25, 2021 – A comprehensive renewable energy potential map needs to be prepared to support the energy transition towards utilizing 100 percent renewable energy and achieving zero emissions in Indonesia by 2050.

Indonesia’s renewable energy technical potential data still refers to the General National Energy Plan (RUEN) of 443.2 GW. This data has not been updated since 2014. Moreover, the RUEN data is also much lower than the actual potential of renewable energy.

“The suboptimal data on the potential for renewable energy will affect the perspective, strategy, and decision making on the use of renewable energy in Indonesia. This data confusion will make the government and business actors unable to plan optimally the energy transition in Indonesia, and formulate policies to accelerate the use of renewable energy. Updating data is significantly strategic for the executives to plan Indonesia’s energy transition,” explained Fabby Tumiwa, Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR).

IESR uses GIS to update solar, wind, and water technical potential data. Considering the variability and intermittent issues of these three types of renewable energy, IESR also examines the potential of biomass and pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) for complementing it. As a result, Indonesia has a total technical potential of solar, wind, hydro, and biomass energy of 7,879.43 GW and 7,308.8 GWh for PHES. 

“Biomass and PHES can be used as complementary sources to overcome the intermittent and variability issues of solar, wind, and water energy. Our calculation results show that the biomass potential reaches 30.73 GW. However, its efficiency is only 20-35%, so it requires PHES,” said Handriyanti Diah Puspitarini, Senior Researcher and Lead Author of the Study “Beyond 443 GW Indonesia’s infinite renewable energy potentials”.

This magnificent potential if utilized optimally will be able to meet all energy needs in Indonesia. The study of Decarbonization of Energy Systems in Indonesia, conducted by IESR and published last May, projected that energy capacity needs will reach 1600 GW by 2050. By utilizing 100% renewable energy, Indonesia can meet the electricity demand of 1600 GW and achieve zero emissions by 2050. Based on the study, its main contribution comes from 1,492 GW of solar PV (88% of the primary energy mix), 40 GW of hydropower, and 19 GW of geothermal and supported by optimal storage capacity.

The study “Beyond 443 GW Indonesia’s infinite renewable energy potential” also contains detailed data on the technical potential of solar, wind, water, biomass, and PHES in 34 provinces in Indonesia. This data can be adopted by the central and provincial governments to more aggressively promote and develop renewable energy projects that are decentralized according to their most prominent potential. Yet, it is still interconnected between islands and provinces to balance their energy supply.

“This renewable energy potential map can be further developed by considering the development to operational costs so that it can provide a more precise outline to stakeholders about the optimal location of renewable energy to be developed. Furthermore, the development of renewable energy can be realized with the support of the right policies and regulations,” added Handriyanti.

Through this study, IESR recommends that the government, first, improve data on renewable energy potential as the reference for planning in the energy and development sector, and conduct regular reviews as renewable energy technology matures. Second, the government and experts need to complete the technical potential map with a brief analysis of the network’s intermittent, variability, and grid readiness, including predictions of climate conditions in the next few years. Third, the government and stakeholders should start considering the development of the decentralized system and inter-island connections as a way to provide electricity from renewable energy that is accessible to communities throughout the island, especially remote areas. Fourth, the government needs to give more support to various renewable energy technology innovations so that they can open up opportunities for utilizing the huge potential of renewable energy.

Table : Technical Potential of Renewable Energy in Indonesia

Type

Technical potential

Scenario 1

Scenario 2
Solar photovoltaic (rooftop, ground mounted, and floating)

7,714.6 GW

6,749.3 GW
Micro- to small-hydropower, with capacity ≤ 10 MW

28.1 GW

6.3 GW
Onshore wind power

106 GW at 50 m hub height and 88 GW at 100 m hub height

25 GW at 50 m hub height and 19.8 GW at 100 m hub height
Biomass power (only from crop wastes and wooden biomass)

30.73 GW
Pumped Hydro Energy Storage

7,308.8 GWh

The study “Beyond 443 GW Indonesia’s infinite renewable energy potential” can be downloaded at the link s.id/Beyond443GW

The video of launch of the study “Beyond 443 GW Indonesia’s infinite renewable energy potential” can be watched on Youtube IESR Indonesia at https://youtu.be/eS_PQD3gEIs

The G20 is Progressing yet far from the 1.5 degree Plan

2021 is marked as the year of the rebound of emission especially in the G20 countries as the economic and social activity is restarting. Previously, emission in the G20 recorded a decrease due to government regulation to overcome the Covid-19 outbreak. Although 14 G20 states have proposed net zero targets which covers around 61 percent of GHG emissions in the world, it is still not aligning with the 1.5 degree Celsius pathway. Climate Transparency Report 2021 finds that some countries such as Argentina, China, India, and Indonesia are projected to exceed their 2019 emissions level. As the window of opportunity to comply with the Paris Agreement is getting narrow, the G20 countries need to raise their climate ambition higher and to move together fighting the climate crisis.

The Climate Transparency Report, an annual report reviewing the climate ambition and policy of the G20 countries, stating several key findings for the 2021 report that was launched on October 14, 2021. They are:

  • Raised ambitions are not complying with the Paris Agreement yet

In the year of 2021, 14 G20 countries are updating their climate ambition and proposing a net-zero target. 13 updated NDC were submitted to UNFCCC and 6 of those countries i.e Argentina, Canada, EU (including France, Germany and Italy), South Africa, the UK and The US increased their NDC target, and that is good news. Unfortunately, all of them are not enough yet to comply with the 1.5 degree plan. By following the current ambition the global temperature will still rise up to 2.4 degrees. A more holistic and communal effort is definitely needed to keep the global temperature in the 1.5 degrees level.

“If the G20 were to align its targets and policies with one and a half degree pathways and implement those policies,  the global emissions gap of around 23 gigatons can be reduced significantly,” said  Justine Holmes, Solutions For Our Climate


  • Fossil fuel subsidy is still remaining

During the economic recovery, most of the G20 countries are injecting subsidies for the fossil fuel sector. In fact, the amount of fossil fuel subsidies are way bigger than the green recovery package prepared by the G20 governments. From January 2020 to August 2021 the G20 committed USD 298 billion to subsidise the fossil fuel industry. USD 248 billion of the USD 298 billion has gone without the ‘green pact’ attached. Meaning the fossil fuel industry has no obligation to for instance lowering their emissions, or other deals to consider the environment or climate change situation.


  • Emission is rebounding

As the economic activity is restarting, emission in the G20 country is rebounding again. Total emissions in 2020 were decreased up to 6% and it is projected to rise 4% this year. Countries like Argentina, China, India, and Indonesia are even projected to exceed the 2019 emissions level. This is actually predicted, that the decreased emissions in 2020 are closely related to the social activity restriction during the pandemic outbreak.


  • It is urgent to phase out coal power plant

Coal-fired power plants are known for their intense carbon emissions. As of 2020, China (163 GW), India (21 GW), Indonesia (18 GW), and Turkey (12 GW) still have coal power plants on the pipeline. All G20 members will need to phase out coal between 2030 – 2040 to limit global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, during his presentation explained that currently Indonesia is still dominated by coal in its energy mix. In October, the Indonesian government issued a new RUPTL which accommodates more renewables share rather than thermal power plan, plus PLN plan to decommission the supercritical coal power plant starting from 2030.

“Recently we are also discussing the possibility to do an early coal moratorium before 2025 but it’s still the plan, not yet settled and we still provide subsidies on fossil fuel. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies will help to expedite the energy transitions,” he concluded.

Towards COP 26, Community Leaders Demand Climate Emergency Declaration

Jakarta, 19 October 2021– Indonesia has updated its climate commitments through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 or sooner. Indonesia’s commitment which is ten years behind the target of the Paris Agreement implies the government’s unambitious efforts in responding to the climate crisis that threatens the lives of the Indonesian people.

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) said that the problem of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) should not be seen as a burden but as an opportunity to transform into a low carbon economy.

“Based on our study entitled Deep decarbonization of Indonesia’s energy system, deep decarbonization of the energy system in 2050 will bring greater economic benefits,” said Fabby in the webinar “Towards COP 26: Climate change and the role of the society to preserve the earth” held by IESR (19/10/2021).

Fabby added that the community will feel the economic benefits by the creation of new industrial opportunities that can absorb a larger workforce. Moreover, Indonesia’s energy prices will be more affordable by using cheaper renewable energy technologies and cleaner air. He said that the compatible climate ambitions with the Paris Agreement will lessen the threat of hydrometeorological disasters as a consequence of increasing the earth’s temperature exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Highlighting policies and the level of public literacy on the climate crisis, community leaders in the event stated that unintegrated climate-related policies and the lack of access to climate change information make the climate change mitigation efforts in Indonesia keep decelerating.

The absence of a climate emergency declaration by the government, according to Melissa Kowara, Activist, Extinction Rebellion Indonesia, indicates the government’s low level of seriousness in dealing with the climate crisis.

“There has not been a firm stance from the highest levels of the country to say that we are in a crisis. (There is no declaration that says-ed) that we will do everything by the private sector, civil society, and government to overcome problems that affect the lives and survival of all of us,” said Melissa. She said this is also the cause of low public literacy regarding climate change.

Muhammad Ali Yusuf, Chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama Disaster Management and Climate Change Institute (LPBI NU), Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), also revealed that religious discourse in Indonesia itself is still far from ecological issues or climate change.

“Even if there is (climate discourse-ed), yet it is not the top priority issue. Therefore, climate change literacy is also necessary for religious leaders because religious life is impossible to prevail in the climate crisis,” he explained.

Furthermore, Jimmy Sormin, Executive Secretary for Witness and Integrity of Creation, Communion of Churches in Indonesia (PGI), encouraged religious leaders to play their role in increasing people’s understanding of climate issues by discussing them according to the local context.

“In the regions, the impacts of climate change, such as the emergence of new pests, crop failure, are experienced by the community, but they do not understand it. It is necessary to ‘rationalize’ it according to their perspective (the local community-ed),” said Jimmy.

Looking at the issue of climate change from a woman’s perspective, Mike Verawati Tangka, Secretary-General, Indonesian Women’s Coalition (KPI) believes that the climate change effect has a close impact on women’s lives. However, Mike regrets that environmental issues and change tend to be considered as masculine issues that override the role of women in caring for nature and advocating for climate issues.

“The impact of climate change is perceived the most laborious by women because our policies and systems are not prepared inclusively. Positive initiatives taken by women by advocating for climate change must also be recognized by the state,” said Mike

IESR: Renewable Energy Portion in “Green” RUPTL Could Be Bigger

Jakarta, 14 October 2021– Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) appreciates the government’s commitment to making an energy transition towards decarbonization in 2060 or earlier by issuing the PLN 2021-2030 Electricity Supply Business Plan  (RUPTL), which has a larger portion of renewable energy generation. The government claims that this RUPTL is the greenest because it contains a portion of new and renewable energy generation capacity (EBT) of 51.6% or 20.923 MW in 2030. However, the 2021-2030 RUPTL still indicates the dependence of fossil energy on the energy system in Indonesia.

Pamela Simamora, IESR Research Coordinator who is also the main author of the Deep decarbonization of Indonesia’s energy system study, believes that the 2021-2030 RUPTL still shows a small renewable energy electricity mix, which is only 24.8% in 2030. This means that from 2025 to 2030, the increase in the renewable energy mix was only 1.8%. This number is much lower than the target mix increase from 2021 to 2025 which is 8% (from 15% today to 23% in 2025).

“The renewable energy mix should be higher in 2030 considering that the price of renewable energy in that year is predicted to be more competitive than fossil energy,” she says.

Indonesia itself has declared to achieve decarbonization by 2060 or earlier. IESR Executive Director, Fabby Tumiwa said that the target will be realized if, by 2030, around 70% of power generation capacity or around 80-85 GW comes from renewable energy so that energy sector emissions can reach their peak in 2030.

“To achieve this mix, it is necessary to reduce fossil energy generating capacity to open up more space for renewable energy plants to be included in the electricity system. The reduction in thermal generating capacity must be followed by the development of renewable energy. With this need, renewable energy in 2022-2025 should ideally reach 25-30 GW and accelerate to 45-50 GW from 2025 to 2030, in line with the plan for early retirement of PLTU, “he explains.

Responding to the government’s plan in the 2030 RUPTL to retire 1.1 GW of subcritical steam power plants in Muara Karang, Tanjung Priok, Tambak Lorok, and Gresik by 2030, the Transformation Energy Program Manager, Deon Arinaldo assessed that this step is still following the business as a usual plan because the PLTU is entering retirement age.

Moreover, the government’s intention to maintain fossil fuels by co-firing biomass at PLTU will set a greater risk of stranded assets and the environment when compared to focusing on developing renewable energy such as solar energy. PLN has even identified challenges such as the sustainability of the required biomass supply of 8-14 million tons per year, the impact on the efficiency of the power plant, and the increase in the basic cost of electricity supply.

On the other hand, RUPTL 2030 has also planned the development of electricity interconnection within islands and between islands to improve electricity reliability and distribute new renewable energy whose sources are far from load centers. The government targets that by 2024 the interconnection within the islands of Kalimantan and Sulawesi has been accomplished in the super grid system to overcome the oversupply in a large system. The government is also reviewing the development of the interconnection network between Sumatra-Java and Bali-Lombok. Referring to the study of Deep decarbonization of Indonesia’s energy system, this within-island, and inter-island interconnection network plan is a good thing and should be monitored for its development.

Furthermore, the development of varied renewable energy (VRE), especially solar energy, is focused on three strategies: solar PV for rural electricity, de-dieselization, and network connection (both PLN and IPP). However, de-dieselization by converting diesel power plants to solar PV equipped with a battery with a total capacity of 1.2 GWp is only intended for isolated systems that are not possible to be connected to PLN transmission.

“If it is intended to encourage a more aggressive penetration of renewable energy, the use of local renewable energy, either solar or other renewable energy sources, should be the main strategy for providing energy access, not a substitute, and must concentrate on to aspects of sustainability and reliability,” said Marlistya Citraningrum, Manager Sustainable Energy Access Program, IESR

Besides, the target of 4.7 GW of PV mini-grid by 2030 listed in the latest RUPTL does not reflect the much larger potential and pipeline project of PV mini-grid. The Scaling Up Solar in Indonesia report even shows that it requires at least 18 GW until 2025 to realize the target of 23% of the renewable energy mix. Meanwhile, according to the IESR Deep decarbonization of Indonesia’s energy system study to pursue emission-free Indonesia in 2050, 107 GW of solar PV is needed in 2030 with a storage system.