Jakarta, May 27, 2025 – The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (KESDM) has just ratified the PLN Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2025–2034 on Monday (5/26). This latest RUPTL targets an increase in the capacity of new and renewable energy (EBT) power plants by 42.6 GW (61%) and 10.3 GW (15%) of power storage consisting of pumped-state hydroelectric power plants and batteries. In addition, fossil power plants such as 10.3 GW of gas and 6.2 GW of coal-fired power plants are also included in the development planning in this RUPTL.

The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) welcomes the increase in the capacity of renewable energy power plants in the 2025-2034 RUPTL, which is larger than the previous RUPTL. Solar energy occupies the largest portion, namely 17.1 GW, followed by other renewable energy generators, such as water (11.7 GW), wind (7.2 GW), geothermal (5.2 GW), bioenergy (0.9 GW), and nuclear energy (0.5 GW) which has just appeared for the first time in PLN’s RUPTL.

IESR encourages the government to continue to monitor the implementation and support PLN to ensure the achievement of the target for the development of renewable energy generators. This support is in the form of adjusting policies and regulations for the acceleration of renewable energy, tariff policies that support project feasibility, as well as strengthening the capacity and auction mechanism so that it is scheduled and transparent, and PLN’s financial capacity to invest. Thus, the development of renewable energy generators can be realized according to the time period and prevent the emergence of an electricity crisis.

IESR Executive Director Fabby Tumiwa reminded that this target is lower than the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) commitment of 56 GW by 2030 and is not in line with the need to limit global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius according to the Paris Agreement which requires the electricity sector to peak before 2030.

Fabby also highlighted the weak ability of PLN to execute the RUPTL and the weak supervision of the regulator. This can be seen from the realization of COD power plants until the first semester of 2025 which was only 1.6 GW from the planned 10 GW in the 2021-2030 RUPTL.

“One of the factors that threatens Indonesia’s energy transition and the potential for an electricity crisis in the next few years is PLN’s inability to conduct large-scale renewable energy power plant auctions quickly, as well as the long-winded power purchase agreement (PPA) negotiation process. As a result, the realization of renewable energy is low and the security of long-term electricity supply is threatened,” said Fabby.

Fabby also highlighted the still large proportion of coal, gas, and nuclear power plants included in the development plan in the RUPTL. IESR criticized the fact that there are still 2.8 GW of PLTUs operating after 2030 which is not in line with the NZE target of 2060 or earlier. According to him, if consistent with Presidential Regulation 112/2022, all PLTUs should end in 2050.

The entry of PLTN also needs to be studied carefully because there has been no official decision from the president, the lack of a regulatory framework governing operational security, the existence of high security risks, the unclear technology to be used and low public acceptance. In addition, dependence on 10.3 GW of gas has the potential to pose serious challenges to national energy security in the long term due to gas supply constraints and its vulnerable prices due to various factors.

“PLN is currently facing difficulties in meeting the availability of gas for its generators. If demand increases two to three times in the future, the threat and risk to meeting PLN’s gas needs will be even greater. In this situation, the development of larger renewable energy is a lower risk option because it not only strengthens the reliability of the energy system, but also contributes to the creation of more affordable energy costs for the community,” said Fabby.

The RUPTL also highlights the involvement of private power producers (independent power producers, IPPs) in renewable energy generation investments worth IDR 1,341.8 trillion. IESR Energy Transformation System Program Manager, Deon Arinaldo, said that the IESR study showed that there is 333 GW of renewable energy potential that can provide attractive investment returns, with around 60% of this potential having an equity investment rate of return (EIRR) above 10% using the benchmark tariff in Presidential Regulation 112/2022. To accelerate renewable energy development, in addition to the PLN procurement mechanism, facilitating access to Joint Utilization of Transmission Networks (PBJT) can accelerate the renewable energy procurement process.

“The certainty of PBJT will expand renewable energy development options and encourage private participation, including energy consumers, so that it can attract renewable energy investment. PBJT can be arranged to provide additional income that can be used by PLN to manage the development of its network, thereby helping to achieve the RUPTL plan or even exceed it,” said Deon.

IESR has published a study of the potential of 333 GW of financially viable renewable energy. In addition, IESR together with RE100 and IEEFA also provide PBJT recommendations that can be used as a reference by the government in formulating policies, while still placing PLN as the network owner.