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Indonesia’s Emission Reduction Ambition Needs to Increase

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Jakarta, December 4, 2023 – The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) hopes the United Nations Climate Summit (Conference of the Parties, COP-28) will strengthen the commitment of all countries, including Indonesia, to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. According to the results of the Global Stocktake, the promise and realization of emission reductions are still far from achieving the Paris Agreement target. Therefore, after COP-28, all countries must review their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and set more ambitious targets for mitigating the climate crisis.

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), in his remarks at COP-28, said that Indonesia is committed to achieving net zero emission (NZE) in 2060 or earlier. Jokowi hopes that COP-28 will foster inclusive cooperation and collaboration to support the achievement of Net Zero Emissions (NZE). He explained that Indonesia is accelerating the energy transition by developing renewable energy and reducing the use of coal-fired power plants. Achieving the 2060 NZE target requires more than USD 1 trillion in financing. He invited more collaboration and investment to support low-interest energy transition financing. He believes solving the energy transition financing problem is a way to solve the world’s problems.

The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) believes having supportive policies to facilitate large investments in energy transition is crucial. As per the Paris Agreement, Indonesia needs to implement more ambitious policies and commitments as time is running out to limit the earth’s temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

Based on the UNFCCC Global Stocktake discussion report for 2023, the responsibilities of countries listed in their NDCs are not aligned with the Paris Agreement. This misalignment will make it difficult to achieve the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 from 2010 levels, 60 percent by 2035, and zero emissions by 2050. Moreover, the NDC target submitted at COP27 indicates that the earth’s temperature in 2050 will likely exceed the Paris Agreement target.

“Indonesia needs to submit a more ambitious target for reducing emissions and increasing its resilience to climate change in the Second NDC (SNDC), which is scheduled to be introduced in 2025. To align with the 1.5°C target, the maximum emission level for all sectors in 2030 should be 850 million tons. In the electricity sector, the energy transition is characterized by a target of 44% renewable energy mix in 2030. However, even if the renewable energy mix target is achieved, it will not be sufficient to bring electricity sector emissions below 200 million tons of CO2 by the 1.5°C pathway. Therefore, in addition to increasing the use of renewable energy, there is still a need to strengthen the power sector’s capacity,” said Fabby Tumiwa, the Executive Director of IESR. 

By 2025, Indonesia needs to increase its ambition in the Enhanced NDC, which currently only aims for an emission reduction target of 31.89% with its efforts (unconditional) and 43.2% with international assistance (conditional) by 2030. This target is made by comparing business as usual (BAU) 2010 projections. Meanwhile, IESR, using points from 2020 emissions data, found that Indonesia could set an unconditional NDC target of 26% by 2030. This increase is higher than the current target. It aims to keep the Indonesian government setting a more relevant climate ambition target in line with the Paris Agreement’s target of no more than 1.5°C of global warming.

 

“There are many opportunities for Indonesia to improve its renewable energy mix target by the Paris Agreement. For example, by aligning the preparation of the SNDC with the NDC principles in Article 4 Line 13 of the Paris Agreement, namely promoting environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, wholeness, comparability, consistency, and ensuring avoidance of double counting, using feasible methods to achieve decarbonization efforts, and accelerating decarbonization out of fossil fuel use,” said Wira A Swadana, Green Economy Program Manager, IESR.

Wira added that Indonesia needs to attract international support, collaborate on technology and knowledge, and encourage renewable energy development to implement the key findings of the Technical Dialogue of the first GST, particularly in climate mitigation. Notably, at COP-28, there is a call to triple the renewable energy target to 11 TW by 2030.

He mentioned that Indonesia has the opportunity to enhance collaboration and strengthen cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Masdar, a company from the UAE, has played a significant role in constructing the Cirata floating solar power plant and has invested in the geothermal energy sector. Additionally, Masdar is a strategic investor in the initial public offering (IPO) of PT Pertamina Geothermal Tbk (PGEO) in February 2023.

“Cooperation between Indonesia and other countries, including the UAE, can help Indonesia’s decarbonization efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Indonesia has established climate cooperation through mechanisms like JETP and various bilateral agreements. However, gaps still need to be addressed to encourage more ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Specifically, there is a need for increased funding and capacity building,” Wira explained.

A Glimpse of Global Stocktake can be found here

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