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1.5°C-Aligned Coal Power Transition Pathways in Indonesia-images-0

1.5°C-Aligned Coal Power Transition Pathways in Indonesia

Additional Strategies Beyond the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP)

Indonesia, one of the world’s largest coal producers, aims to transition away from coal, boost renewable energy production, and align with global climate goals. To accelerate the coal transition, several financial mechanisms have been developed to facilitate financial resources, including the Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) led by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), supported by the International Partners Group led by the U.S. and Japan, with participation from several other G7 countries.

In November 2023, the Government of Indonesia published the first version of the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP), outlining the country’s power sector emissions reduction roadmap and strategies. While the plan was expected to detail how the emissions reduction and renewable targets envisioned by the JETP will be delivered with investment and policies, we find that critical elements of a successful coal power transition are missing from the current version.

To address the gaps, this research develops a comprehensive, high-ambition pathway for Indonesia’s coal power transition by combining a global integrated assessment model (GCAM), a power system dispatch model (PLEXOS), and bottom-up analyses. It expands the existing version of the CIPP in several dimensions, including (1) assessing the pathway that is 1.5°C aligned through 2050, (2) covering both on-grid plants and off-grid captive plants, (3) exploring a larger set of transition options for different coal plants, and (4) conducting plant-by-plant assessments to better understand the technical and economic suitability for individual plants, using the best available data.

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