Since signing the Paris Agreement in 2016, Indonesia has actively engaged in international climate diplomacy, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 31.89% unconditionally, and up to 43.2% conditionally compared to 2010 levels (Indonesia’s Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution, ENDC). The energy sector is expected to contribute 12.5% of these reductions, with the waste sector, IPPU, and agriculture & FOLU sectors contributing 1.4%, 0.2%, and 17.7% respectively. In the new update, it is expected that the second ENDC will align to the Long-Term Low Carbon and Climate Resilience Strategy (LTS-LCCR) 2050 that vision Indonesia to reach net-zero by 2060 or sooner. Nevertheless, it has been revealed that the existing and upcoming plans, whether conditional or unconditional, are far from what Indonesia should have achieved based on the 1.5°C warming limit of the Paris Agreement. According to the Climate Transparency Report, current pathways could result in a 4°C temperature increase by 2060.

As Indonesia embarks on a new national planning called Indonesia Emas 2045, there are changes in terms of economic growth as well as emission reduction targets stated in the document of Long Term National Planning (RPJPN) 2025-2045. It has been declared that the government aims for robust economic growth—targeting a gross national income of USD 30,300 by 2045—and expects the manufacturing and maritime sectors to increase their GDP contributions to 28% and 15% respectively. Concurrently, Indonesia targets a 93.5% reduction in emissions by 2045 compared to 2025 levels.

The Ministry of Industry, as the lead technical ministry that governs industrial sectors’ operation, addresses this dual challenge by starting development of a net zero emission industry roadmap that considers the economic and emission reduction targets, strengthening the emission reporting regulation, developing green industry standards, as well as preparing the framework for market driven decarbonization. However, these efforts remain in the planning phase and require accelerated implementation.

IESR sees continuous monitoring on decarbonization progress by the industrial sector as key to ensure its achievement towards net zero and ensuring its competitiveness in the global market. The industry players’ past, ongoing and future initiatives and pipeline projects are often overlooked to be calculated in the planning stages of national roadmap development. Hence, IESR is currently inviting experts to help assess the industry sector’s business-as-usual emission baseline following the new economic target in Indonesia Emas 2045 and 8% growth at the end of Prabowo’s presidency in 2029, as well as to develop a results-focused decarbonization action plan based on proven technologies to help decision making process by policymakers.