Civil Society Recommendations for the Development of Indonesia’s Second NDC

press release

Jakarta, February 2, 2024 – Indonesia, under the coordination of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF), has initiated the drafting process for its Second National Determined Contribution (SNDC) aimed at emissions reductions by 2030 and 2035. The MoEF intends to submit the SNDC to the UNFCCC in 2024.

The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) along with several civil society organizations have requested for revisions in the SNDC, proposing updated scenarios and targets aligned with the objective of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius. They advocate for striving to achieve the ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, as set forth by the Paris Agreement and reinforced by the Global Stocktake decision at COP 28.

IESR also urges the government to engage public participation in the preparation process of the SNDC. Furthermore, it is essential for the government to adhere to the principles outlined in Article 4, Line 13 of the Paris Agreement and the provisions of the COP series during SNDC preparation.

Currently, the government continues to utilize the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for calculating emission reductions. However, civil society deems this scenario irrelevant as a basis for emission calculations. Indonesia must transition to a more accurate calculation system that references relative emissions in a given year, considering a realistic trajectory of global and Indonesian economic growth.

“While the emission reduction target in the Enhanced NDC (ENDC) appears to be increasing, it still does not align with the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Presently, the ENDC target only aims for a 31-43 percent reduction below BAU. If using the BAU calculation method employed thus far for setting emission reduction targets in the NDC, Indonesia’s target should be at least a 60 percent reduction from BAU for unconditional efforts and a 62 percent reduction from BAU for conditional efforts with international assistance. These figures do not include emission reductions from the agriculture, forestry, and land sectors,” remarked IESR Executive Director Fabby Tumiwa.

According to the analysis conducted by IESR, using 2022 emissions as the benchmark for target setting, Indonesia must establish an unconditional emissions reduction goal of 26 percent, equivalent to 859 MtCO2e by 2030, and a conditional reduction target of 28 percent, amounting to 829 MtCO2e with international assistance. These targets are crucial for contributing to the objective of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In addition to increasing emission reduction targets, Indonesia must also diminish the reliance on fossil energy sources such as coal and gas within its energy system. Based on calculations from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), the coal component in Indonesia’s electricity system should be reduced to 7 to 16 percent by 2030, with the phasing-out of PLTU operations before 2040. Similarly, gas usage needs to be curtailed to 8 to 10 percent by 2030, with phasing-out operations by 2050.

Deon Arinaldo, IESR’s Energy Transformation Program Manager, emphasized that the reduction in the fossil energy mix should be accompanied by an increase in the share of renewable energy, ranging from 55 to 82 percent by 2030. However, it is worth noting that the target listed in the ENDC pertains to the installed capacity of renewable energy rather than the actual mix. IESR contends that solely focusing on installed capacity does not adequately reflect the relationship with emission reduction objectives.

“With the clarity of the renewable energy mix target in the electricity sector, it becomes possible to anticipate and even calculate the emission intensity of the electricity sector by 2030 to achieve the SDNC target. Furthermore, a significant presence of renewable energy will offer a clearer roadmap for electricity planning, specifying the types of renewable energy that should be prioritized to bridge the existing gap. With only 7 years remaining, it’s evident that solar and wind power plants, known for their shorter construction periods, should take precedence in development efforts to meet the mix target. Additionally, interventions are necessary for fossil fuel power plants, emphasizing the importance of reducing the reliance on fossil energy through various strategies such as terminating the operation of PLTU or reducing its utilization,” stated Deon.

Furthermore, IESR and other civil society organizations criticize the ENDC document for neglecting to incorporate the principle of climate justice. Civil society advocates for the SNDC preparation process to be more inclusive, ensuring climate protection for vulnerable groups and transparency throughout.

Wira Swadana, IESR Green Economy Program Manager, emphasized that the government must ensure fair distribution of the burden of emission reduction.

“Entities responsible for the highest emissions must shoulder a larger portion of the emission reduction efforts. Furthermore, the formulation of the SNDC should prioritize the principle of climate justice, which aims to mitigate both short-term and long-term risks while ensuring fair distribution of benefits, burdens, and risks, particularly for marginalized communities,” remarked Wira.

IESR and other civil society groups have outlined six recommendations for the preparation of the SNDC. First, the government should adhere to the principles of the Paris Agreement as outlined in Article 4, Line 13, and the guidelines set forth by the COP. Second, there should be a focus on integrating measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems tailored for developing country parties. Third, the government should abandon the use of the BAU scenario as the basis for emission reduction calculations and instead adopt a method based on relative emissions in a given year, which takes into account more precise global and Indonesian economic growth projections. Fourth, climate targets should be established in alignment with the Paris Agreement. Fifth, there should be transparent and publicly accessible monitoring and evaluation mechanisms put in place. Sixth, principles of climate justice should be incorporated and implemented throughout the process. These recommendations for the preparation of the Second NDC have been submitted to relevant ministries and institutions.

Understanding Climate Justice in Global Climate Action and Its Implementation in Indonesia

Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) Fabby Tumiwa

Climate justice is the most urgent issue of a generation. Especially for those who have a mission to free Indonesia from the threat of climate crisis and ecological crisis in a democratic political order based on human rights principles. Torry Kuswardono, Executive Director of the PIKUL Foundation, emphasized the importance of understanding climate justice that written in the Paris Agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), Working Group II assesses the impacts of climate change, looking at ecosystems, biodiversity, and human rights. Torry explained that the sixth assessment report (AR 6) had expanded attention to vulnerability, response, power, participation, and climate justice inequality.

“It also explains the view that a just society will adapt successfully. On the other hand, successful adaptation will produce a just society,” said Torry in a discussion held by the Madani Foundation, Walhi, Kemitraan, Pikul, and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) on Monday (3/10/2022).

Torry said that the issue of climate-resilient development needs to be considered to reduce inequality, synergize adaptation and mitigation and provide benefits for the poor and vulnerable groups. Climate justice has been conceptualized in multiple ways, composed of three overarching tenets (procedural justice, distributive justice, and solid but flexible institutions).

“There are at least four things that must be done, namely recognizing agencies that represent vulnerable groups, there needs to be procedures for vulnerable groups to speak up and solutions and distribute justice,” said Torry.

Torry stated that distributive justice has the principle that the more vulnerable parties should get more justice. To implement climate justice, at least Indonesia must have strong and flexible institutions. Meanwhile, Bivitri Susanti, Founder and Senior Researcher of the Center for Indonesian Law and Policy Studies (PSHK) emphasized that every party, including the community, has an essential role in climate justice, so grassroots and youth participation in discussions is significant.

“Three things must be highlighted (for implementing climate justice in Indonesia, ed), namely political decision-making, the judiciary, and civil society. We need to involve more civil society so they can also understand the context of climate change,” said Bivitri.

Climate Justice Discussion
Climate Justice Discussion held in Jakarta by Yayasan Madani Berkelanjutan, Kemitraan, WALHI, Yayasan PIKUL, and IESR

Climate change will harm the people of Indonesia, especially coastal communities. Parid Ridwanuddin, Coastal and Marine Campaign Manager, Walhi, explained that the annual tidal flood will threaten a total of 199 coastal cities in Indonesia in 2050. In addition, around 118,000 hectares of the area will be inundated by seawater, 23 million residents will be affected, and losses are estimated at Rp1,576 trillion.

“We also need to realize that fishermen can only go to sea for six months in one year. Every year on average, 100 fishermen are lost/died at sea due to fishing during bad weather,” explained Parid.

Climate change, Parid continued, also has an impact on increasing temperatures, which makes fish move from the tropics. Thus, this condition can reduce the income of traditional fishermen. Reflecting on various climate changes and the role of society, Parid emphasized the importance of the Climate Change Bill as a way to promote climate justice in Indonesia.

“This bill must become a priority for the civil society movement in Indonesia and invite international networks,” said Parid.

The Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Fabby Tumiwa, explained that the impact of the worsening climate is increasingly being felt today. Based on the Indonesian Disaster Information Data (DIBI)-BNPB for 2005-2017, disaster events in Indonesia are more related to hydrometeorology. In 2016, there were 2,287 hydrometeorological disasters, while 26 geological disasters occurred. In 2017, there were 2,139 hydrometeorological disasters and 18 geological disasters.

“This is an important context; who pays for the impact of this incident? It has also been related to tax justice reform. For example, those who produce more emissions should be charged more because of the climate crisis,” said Fabby.