After Global Stocktake of COP28: Decarbonizing the Energy Sector in Southeast Asia toward Post ASEAN Vision 2025

Jakarta, April 26, 2024 – At COP28, a decision was made to adopt a global stocktake (GST). The decision acknowledged that the world is facing challenges in meeting the Paris Agreement target and projected that the global temperature may exceed 2.1 to 2.8°C by the end of this century even with full implementation of the current Nationally Determined Contributions. While current climate action may not be sufficient to fully address the global challenges we face, decarbonisation of the energy sector , including power generation, industry, transport, and buildings in the mid of this century, could make significant contribution to climate mitigation action, as the energy sector is responsible for a significant proportion of global greenhouse gas emissions around 79% of global GHG emissions, according to the IPCC AR6 report of 2023. 

As parties to the UNFCCC, ASEAN Member States (AMS) have also agreed to support a just, orderly and equitable transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. This includes tripling renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, phasing out unabated coal power, phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies and reducing emissions from road transport. In essence, this GST decision can be used as a starting point to strengthen regional progress towards a more ambitious renewable energy target in Post ASEAN Vision 2025. 

Although Southeast Asian countries have demonstrated their commitment to climate and energy transition issues, their support for the energy transition agenda in line with the Paris Agreement could be further strengthened with more ambition (Eco, 2022-24). According to IRENA (2022), ASEAN has significant renewable energy potential of around 17 TW. ASEAN could become net-zero with 90% – 100% renewable energy by 2050 (IRENA and ACE, 2022).

While the region has significant renewable energy potential, it is worth noting that the ASEAN Plan of Action on Energy Cooperation (APAEC) (2016-2025) sets a modest target of 35% installed capacity and 23% energy mix by 2025. At present, only 28.2 GW of utility-scale solar and wind power is being generated in ASEAN (GEM, 2024), suggesting that the region’s renewable energy potential remains largely untapped. 

It is also worth noting that some ASEAN Member States (AMS), such as Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, have policies that allow for the growth of fossil fuels (Climate Action Tracker, 2024), including the development of captive coal plants, which account for around 13 GW of the 18.8 GW of new coal power in the pipeline (Mongabay, 2023), and the continuation of new coal plants until 2030 (Climate Home News, 2023). It concluded that there is room for improvement and acceleration in the implementation of ASEAN’s energy transition. Additionally, since the region is in the middle of development its vision more integrated community (ASEAN, 2025) and aligning with Paris Agreement, proposing a more ambitious renewable energy target could be beneficial for driving long term economic growth e.g. can generate USD 90 to 100 billion from renewable energy manufacturing and generating job creation (ADB, 2023). 

The two-year time span will be a crucial moment for the Southeast Asian region. It will be a period of significant change, not only in the context of the UNFCCC Global Stocktake 1 decision, but also in the context of ASEAN’s ongoing efforts to develop the New ASEAN Vision after 2025 and the ASEAN Plan of Action on Energy Cooperation Phase (APAEC) five years later. It will be important for the region to adapt to the changing times.

The former document will serve as a foundation and reflection of the political commitment of AMS leaders to take the region forward over the next twenty years. In the ASEAN Vision 2025, the term “climate change” is only mentioned once and does not seem to be considered a priority. Hopefully, in the new ASEAN Vision, the issue of climate change and energy transition can be addressed more strategically and become a priority issue, given its urgency and low-hanging fruit that can contribute to regional economic growth (IRENA, 2023). It would be beneficial for the region if this could become the North Star of national policies in ASEAN.

On the other hand, the development of the ASEAN Long-Term Renewable Energy Roadmap (ACE, 2023) is a positive step towards harmonising the achievement of a more targeted and ambitious collective renewable energy target. However, it is worth noting that in regional energy planning documents there is room for Clean Coal Technology (including CCUS), whose economics, effectiveness and safety are still questionable (CNBC, 2021) and could potentially lead to carbon lock-in.

It is worth noting that the path to accelerating the energy transition and increasing renewable energy targets in ASEAN is a long one, with many challenges to overcome in terms of policy design, implementation, and funding sources. However, there is great potential for economic growth in this area, including the market for energy storage (Mordor Intelligence, 2023), the electric vehicle market (FDI Intelligence, 2023), and solar PV manufacturing (REGlobal, 2023).. It would be beneficial for ASEAN to consider incorporating the results of GST1 into a regional vision that emphasizes green and low-carbon development, as well as more ambitious renewable energy targets. This could help to achieve optimal economic benefits at this crucial moment.

Jakarta Post | Indonesia’s Call for Support in COP28 shows ‘No New’ Commitment

President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s call for more support from rich countries for their developing counterparts in tackling the climate crisis has left environmentalists unimpressed, who criticize the speech for “giving nothing new” despite global putting pressure on countries to do more to avoid the worst impacts of the crisis.

Read more on Jakarta Post.

Indonesia’s Emission Reduction Ambition Needs to Increase

press release

Jakarta, December 4, 2023 – The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) hopes the United Nations Climate Summit (Conference of the Parties, COP-28) will strengthen the commitment of all countries, including Indonesia, to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. According to the results of the Global Stocktake, the promise and realization of emission reductions are still far from achieving the Paris Agreement target. Therefore, after COP-28, all countries must review their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and set more ambitious targets for mitigating the climate crisis.

President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), in his remarks at COP-28, said that Indonesia is committed to achieving net zero emission (NZE) in 2060 or earlier. Jokowi hopes that COP-28 will foster inclusive cooperation and collaboration to support the achievement of Net Zero Emissions (NZE). He explained that Indonesia is accelerating the energy transition by developing renewable energy and reducing the use of coal-fired power plants. Achieving the 2060 NZE target requires more than USD 1 trillion in financing. He invited more collaboration and investment to support low-interest energy transition financing. He believes solving the energy transition financing problem is a way to solve the world’s problems.

The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) believes having supportive policies to facilitate large investments in energy transition is crucial. As per the Paris Agreement, Indonesia needs to implement more ambitious policies and commitments as time is running out to limit the earth’s temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

Based on the UNFCCC Global Stocktake discussion report for 2023, the responsibilities of countries listed in their NDCs are not aligned with the Paris Agreement. This misalignment will make it difficult to achieve the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent by 2030 from 2010 levels, 60 percent by 2035, and zero emissions by 2050. Moreover, the NDC target submitted at COP27 indicates that the earth’s temperature in 2050 will likely exceed the Paris Agreement target.

“Indonesia needs to submit a more ambitious target for reducing emissions and increasing its resilience to climate change in the Second NDC (SNDC), which is scheduled to be introduced in 2025. To align with the 1.5°C target, the maximum emission level for all sectors in 2030 should be 850 million tons. In the electricity sector, the energy transition is characterized by a target of 44% renewable energy mix in 2030. However, even if the renewable energy mix target is achieved, it will not be sufficient to bring electricity sector emissions below 200 million tons of CO2 by the 1.5°C pathway. Therefore, in addition to increasing the use of renewable energy, there is still a need to strengthen the power sector’s capacity,” said Fabby Tumiwa, the Executive Director of IESR. 

By 2025, Indonesia needs to increase its ambition in the Enhanced NDC, which currently only aims for an emission reduction target of 31.89% with its efforts (unconditional) and 43.2% with international assistance (conditional) by 2030. This target is made by comparing business as usual (BAU) 2010 projections. Meanwhile, IESR, using points from 2020 emissions data, found that Indonesia could set an unconditional NDC target of 26% by 2030. This increase is higher than the current target. It aims to keep the Indonesian government setting a more relevant climate ambition target in line with the Paris Agreement’s target of no more than 1.5°C of global warming.

 

“There are many opportunities for Indonesia to improve its renewable energy mix target by the Paris Agreement. For example, by aligning the preparation of the SNDC with the NDC principles in Article 4 Line 13 of the Paris Agreement, namely promoting environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, wholeness, comparability, consistency, and ensuring avoidance of double counting, using feasible methods to achieve decarbonization efforts, and accelerating decarbonization out of fossil fuel use,” said Wira A Swadana, Green Economy Program Manager, IESR.

Wira added that Indonesia needs to attract international support, collaborate on technology and knowledge, and encourage renewable energy development to implement the key findings of the Technical Dialogue of the first GST, particularly in climate mitigation. Notably, at COP-28, there is a call to triple the renewable energy target to 11 TW by 2030.

He mentioned that Indonesia has the opportunity to enhance collaboration and strengthen cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Masdar, a company from the UAE, has played a significant role in constructing the Cirata floating solar power plant and has invested in the geothermal energy sector. Additionally, Masdar is a strategic investor in the initial public offering (IPO) of PT Pertamina Geothermal Tbk (PGEO) in February 2023.

“Cooperation between Indonesia and other countries, including the UAE, can help Indonesia’s decarbonization efforts to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Indonesia has established climate cooperation through mechanisms like JETP and various bilateral agreements. However, gaps still need to be addressed to encourage more ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. Specifically, there is a need for increased funding and capacity building,” Wira explained.

A Glimpse of Global Stocktake can be found here

Towards COP-28: Indonesia Needs to Speak Out for Concrete Action in Addressing the Climate Crisis

Jakarta, November 2, 2023 -The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP-28) is scheduled to take place in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE) from November 30 to December 12, 2023. Guntur, a policy analyst from the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment, has stated that the COP-28 meeting will include the first-ever global stocktake (GST) to evaluate the progress made in implementing the Paris Agreement.

 

“The GST is a crucial turning point for taking climate action in this critical decade, where the global community is aware that the implementation of the Paris Agreement is currently off track. For this reason, collaboration between various parties is needed in course-correcting efforts and improving solutions that are reflected in the results of the negotiations as well as in the COP28 Presidential Actions Agenda,” he explained at the Pijar Foundation Policy Playground event on Thursday (2/11/2023).

 

Guntur mentioned that COP28 is focused on several issues to fulfill the pillars of the Paris Agreement, particularly related to energy transition, especially renewable energy. Indonesia also continues to prepare the pavilion as soft diplomacy or diplomacy with a socio-cultural approach. This is also an effort to convey to the world the concrete steps and concrete actions that Indonesia has taken in reducing emissions and addressing climate change. In addition, Indonesia took the theme of climate action to be held in the Indonesian pavilion during the implementation of COP28. 

 

Arief Rosadi, Coordinator of Climate Diplomacy Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), said the climate crisis harms the world. Based on the UNFCCC report in 2022, global emissions will increase by almost 14% throughout this decade. The UNFCCC’s 2023 data shows that current policies will result in a temperature rise of 2.8°C by the end of the century.

 

“For this reason, Indonesia must take real action to address the climate crisis, and collective efforts are needed to address and deal with it by emphasizing the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). There are currently various opportunities for young people to participate in international conventions despite possible challenges, such as closed processes and limited financial, regulatory, and logistical support. Citing data from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, most Indonesians feel morally obligated to protect the environment,” Arief said. 

 

Based on the agenda, Arief said, the delegation of the Republic of Indonesia (RI) will pay more attention to three global crises. These three crises, also known as the triple planetary crisis, include climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss. These are significant global challenges that require bilateral and multilateral collaboration and cooperation to ensure that the Earth remains habitable for the future.