Making Room for Renewable Energy

Jakarta, 15 June 2022 – Indonesia has committed to no longer build coal except those already in the contract process. At COP 26, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that Indonesia is ready to retire 9.2 GW of coal-fired power plants if there is international assistance. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is targeting old power plants whose efficiency has decreased. To pursue the 23% energy mix by 2025, apart from executing the plan to add renewable energy capacity in the RUPTL, at least 18 GW of solar energy is still needed until 2025 to meet the 23% renewable energy target in the national energy mix.

Another alternative that can be taken is to integrate renewables into the current electricity system by modifying the CFPP to be more flexible. In the latest IESR’s report, entitled Flexible Thermal Power Plant: An Analysis of Operating Coal-Fired Power Plants Flexibly to Enable the High-Level Variable Renewables in Indonesia’s Power System, it is explained that flexible CFPP’s operations can be carried out in Indonesia by retrofitting the CFPP unit first.

The retrofitting process will make the CFPP operation more flexible by reducing the minimum load. This is done to reduce operational costs that arise due to the increase in the start-up/shutdown process as a consequence of the increase in renewable energy variables in the grid. Two countries that have carried out CFPP operations flexibly are Germany and India.

“In Germany the CFPPs being retrofitted are the old ones. One of the strategies taken is to provide incentives for thermal power plants. Meanwhile in India, flexible CFPP operations are still in the pilot project stage, and currently preparing market policy instruments like what has been done in Germany,” explained Raditya Wiranegara, author of the Flexible Thermal Power Plant report.

Raditya added that the cost of generating flexible coal power plants is lower than gas turbine or combine cycle so that it can be considered as an option for generating power in the transition period efficiently and making room for renewable energy.

Bayu Nugroho, Director of Electrical Engineering and Environment, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that it is possible to operate this flexible power plant in Indonesia, but some preparations need to be made beforehand.

“To achieve NZE 2060 we have to make various efforts. One of them that the government is currently preparing is a carbon tax mechanism. This scheme can also be done, we (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources) need to mix everything so that it can run optimally,” explained Bayu in the panel discussion during the report launch.

Arief Sugianto, VP of PLN’s RUPTL Control, stated a number of prerequisites if we want to make the coal fleet in Indonesia operate flexibly.

“First we need to think about what incentives will be given to the CFPP which will be operated flexibly, and who will bear the subsidy,” he said.

Arief added, in the context of PLN, which uses a take or pay scheme in buying and selling electricity with an IPP, it is rather difficult to directly implement this flexible PLTU operation because the initial retrofit costs will burden the government or customers.

With the current state of coal still dominating electricity generation in Indonesia, there are several steps the government can take to increase the renewable energy mix, including reducing coal capacity and operating CFPP flexibly.

“We see that there are 5 GW of old coal capacity (above 35 years) as low-hanging fruit that can be retired immediately, because its efficiency has decreased and is full of emissions,” explained Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR.

Fabby added that operating the CFPP flexibly can open up some space for renewable energy to enter the grid.

Dimitri Pescia, Program Lead Southeast Asia, Agora Energiewende, reminded that flexible coal power plants are not a clean energy source even though they may produce less emissions than ordinary coal power plants.

“Flexible power plant is not a clean energy source, but it provides space for renewables to be  integrated into the grid efficiently, so it can be used as a temporary solution to transition to a renewable energy system,” said Dimitri.

Dimitri further explained that the technology used in flexible CFPP operation is quite complex and still produces emissions, so the carbon price instrument is an important element to maintain a balance and we must immediately switch to a renewable energy system.

Striving an Early Literacy on Energy Transition

South Tangerang, May 23rd, 2022 – The energy transition is a global agenda whose impact will be felt in the medium-long term. Conducting research, agreement, and policy formulation are various efforts to urge stakeholders to take action in the “present days” that are expected to have an impact on the near future. Of course, in the long term, a fair & just energy transition must be encouraged and implemented to mitigate climate change.

However, have we ever thought that in the future, who will be most affected by the implementation of the energy transition? Of course, the younger generation. Thus, it is only fair to teach them from an early age to understand the concept of the energy transition. Because, in the future, policymakers in 2060, the year Indonesia targets to achieve net-zero emissions, are currently still in school.

As a concrete effort based on this understanding, the Clean, Affordable, and Secure Energy for Southeast Asia (CASE) project in Indonesia held an activity entitled “Teaching for Future” which was held at Santa Ursula School BSD, specifically for Class IX students. In this activity, CASE seeks to instill an energy transition mindset by initiating discussions and active teaching and learning activities involving students from Santa Ursula School BSD.

This activity done by CASE is in line with the efforts of Santa Ursula BSD School in instilling understanding and education about climate change from an early age as conveyed by Mrs. Irene Rosmawati, the Principal of Santa Ursula BSD School.

“Santa Ursula School actively and systematically provides teaching and learning activities related to climate change and renewable energy issues. It is hoped that students will have an understanding as to the initial capital for their real actions in the future.”

During the Teaching for the Future activity, CASE invited George Hadi Santoso, Vice President of Xurya Daya Indonesia, a company that provides installation and procurement services for rooftop solar panel systems, to directly attend the session and discuss with students of Santa Ursula School.

“I especially appreciate Santa Ursula BSD School and CASE Project who initiated this activity in an effort to support the energy transition process in the long term. I really hope that my presence here can be an inspiration for these youngsters in choosing a career in green jobs in the future,” said George, opening the discussion session in class.

Santa Ursula BSD School is a school that has taken the initiative and is in the process of installing a rooftop Solar Power Plant (PLTS) with a capacity of at least more than 1 Megawatt peak (MWp). CASE Indonesia sees this initiative as a concrete action for schools to support the energy transition in Indonesia. In addition, CASE Indonesia hopes that this initiative can become a real example for students regarding the use of renewable energy and how non-governmental actors can play a role in supporting the energy transition. Coming from the same spirit (real action against climate change), CASE and Xurya also invite students to understand other things that can be done at their age to support the energy transition, such as energy-saving habits.

An interesting finding during the activity was conveyed by Agus Praditya Tampubolon, CASE Program Manager from IESR.

“It is very interesting how junior high school students can think further about the implementation of renewable energy, for example, we were asked about the risk of dependence on imported solar panels if Indonesia uses solar energy intensively. Findings like this, that students can think ahead and beyond, we hope, will be a good sign for Indonesia’s energy transition efforts in the future,” Agus explained at the end of the event.

Showing Leadership in G20, Indonesia Needs to Increase Solar PV Development

JAKARTA, 20 April 2022 – Carrying the energy transition as the main topic of Indonesia’s presidency at the G20, Indonesia needs to show its leadership in pursuing a more massive renewable energy capacity, especially solar energy. Indonesia can also learn from the experiences of the G20 countries in encouraging the growth of solar energy and accelerating the spread of solar energy.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia and the Institute of Essential Services Reform (IESR), in collaboration with BloombergNEF and the International Solar Alliance (ISA), held a workshop to take lessons from G20 countries in encouraging the application of solar power relevant to developing countries. The workshops were also not limited to policy frameworks, fiscal and financial instruments, market readiness, and human resource development.

Ali Izadi – Najafabadi, Head of Research APAC, BloombergNEF, expressed his optimism that Indonesia has the potential to accelerate the energy transition.

“Some analysts say Indonesia lags behind other G20 countries in renewable energy, especially solar power, but I believe Indonesia can catch up. Indonesia has many opportunities to reform policies or special regulatory measures focusing on improving the energy economy and the environment,” said Ali.

In line with Ali, Rohit Garde, Senior Associate for Solar Energy Financing at BloombergNEF, said that BloombergNEF measures state policies in the electricity sector and carbon policies. For example, Germany and England have 84% and 83%, respectively, which indicates that both countries have good procedures for PV mini-grid. Meanwhile, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of PV mini-grid in India, China, UAE, and Chile is the lowest due to high levels of solar radiation and large-scale PV mini-grid development. Meanwhile, the LCOE of PV mini-grid in Indonesia is the highest due to its small scale and high cost of capital.

“Indonesia must increase its ambitions by revising regulations and removing development barriers,” added Rohit Garde.

One of the important issues in Indonesia’s leadership in the G20 is the energy transition. Yudo Dwinanda Priadi, Expert Staff to the Minister for Strategic Planning at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, said that the power plant plan already has an Electric Power Supply Business Plan Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2021-2030. A greener RUPTL is a cornerstone of achieving zero carbon by 2060.

“Solar Power Plants (PLTS) have the largest optimization in Indonesia and will reach 4,680 MW by 2030. Therefore, solar energy has the most abundant potential. In addition, the cost continues to decline, and the rapid development of PV mini-grid technology has made solar power generation a priority. The development of rooftop PV mini-grid also includes better implementation and incentives for people who want to install rooftop PV mini-grid. The government has issued the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources No.26/2021, and the rooftop PV roadmap is in the process as a National Strategic Program (PSN),” said Yudo.

On the other hand, Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR and General Chair of the Indonesian Solar Energy Association (AESI), said solar energy development in Indonesia is relatively slow with several obstacles.

“In 2021, only 0.001 percent of its technical potential will be implemented. However, rooftop solar power generation has continued to increase in the last three years, and that is due to the support from government regulations. RUPTL 2021 is a signal to increase five times to 4.7 MW, and there are also other projects such as exports to Singapore, Riau Islands, and Batam. Therefore, this project has the potential for massive solar energy development,” said Fabby Tumiwa.

Fabby also added several reasons for the obstacles to the energy transition in Indonesia, such as the Domestic Component Level (TKDN).

“Problems in project development such as land and regulations on the Domestic Component Level (TKDN); existing projects require solar module devices from 40% to 60%, and this has not been met by industry in Indonesia and has not received financial assistance from the state; negotiations are quite long while other countries tend to be faster. The Vietnamese government has strong political will and commitment, regulation, implementation, and incentives for tariff policies related to net metering. What is also important is the policy certainty and transmission of the State Electricity Company (PLN),” said Fabby.

Kanaka Arifcandang Winoto, the Senior Business Developer from Mainstream Renewable Power, explained how Indonesia needs to accelerate to meet the renewable energy mix target of 23% in 2025.

“Indonesia is the largest energy consumer in ASEAN, accounting for almost 40 percent of ASEAN’s total energy use. With the significant potential of solar, geothermal, wind and hydropower resources, Indonesia is well-positioned to develop in a low-carbon energy system,” he said.

According to Kanaka, Indonesia is a key player in achieving 1.5℃, so cooperation with all stakeholders is needed to identify a national roadmap for realizing economic growth and climate security.

Dyah Roro Esti, Member of the DPR, Commission VII, explained that his party is open to public input, especially on renewable energy policies that are being discussed in the DPR RI.

 “Data from DEN, Indonesia must optimize 2.5 GW, and each area has potential, both solar and wind. Therefore, it is necessary to have the motivation and political will to cooperate with local governments in optimizing and realizing this potential. The House of Representatives (DPR) is working on the New Renewable Energy (EBT) Bill and will be open to suggestions. However, the EBT Bill (RUU) is still under discussion,” explained Dyah Roro.

On the other hand, regarding policies at the regional level, Ngurah Pasek, Head of the Sub-Division of Environment and Regional Development, Bappedalitbang Bali Province, added that Bali has implemented Perda 29 of 2020 concerning the General Plan of Regional Energy (RUED) whose derivative is Pergub 45 of 2019 about Bali Clean Energy.

“Installation to regencies and cities in Bali Province, which currently has reached 8.5 MW. The target of the Bali Provincial Government regarding budget refocusing is how the installation of solar rooftop solar panels in offices or companies can run well,” he said.

The development of rooftop solar power plants is also happening in Central Java. Nathan Setyawan, Sub-Coordinator of Natural Resources and Environment, Central Java Regional Development Planning Agency, explained some progress in supporting renewable energy in his area.

“Central Java is the only province that has developed and integrated economic recovery and the use of renewable energy. In 2021, we will encourage not only provincial governments but also regents and mayors and the private sector to implement rooftop solar power plants.”

He emphasized that increasing public awareness and support from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources would encourage the use of communal solar power plants in remote areas. In addition, Nathan hopes that the availability of affordable clean energy supporting technology will help develop the local renewable energy industry.

“Hopefully, there will be a mini silicon valley to develop new renewable energy-oriented industries,” he added.***

Russia’s Invasion May Affect Energy Transition in ASEAN

Jakarta, 5 April 2022 – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the past month has been steering up the global reaction, especially on energy security issues. Russia is known for its oil and gas global exporter, with the invasion going on, global leaders are taking stands in giving sanctions not to buy gas from Russia. Is this good or bad? We may need a longer time to see the impact, but one thing’s for sure, Russia’s sanction has become one of the triggers for European Union Countries to accelerate their energy transition and  seal emergency securities as well as reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.

Fabby Tumiwa, the Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), said that EU action to ensure their energy security is accelerating the transition.

“EU countries try to reduce their reliance on fossil fuel by developing technology such as green hydrogen to ensure their energy security. This is such good news for the EU region yet it has a spillover effect as countries like Germany commit to supporting energy transition in emerging countries like Indonesia. The current situation may affect the speed and funding for the energy transition in emerging economy countries,” he explained.

Sufficient funding is crucial for decarbonizing the whole energy system. Enough funding means the government will be able to build modern low-carbon energy infrastructure. As most of the emerging countries lie in the Southeast Asia region, this area has become the hotspot for decarbonization. As one of the most populated regions, Southeast Asia’s energy demand is constantly growing. Ensuring the region has sufficient funding to transform its energy system into a cleaner one will be one of the determining factors of global decarbonization.

Consisting of ten countries, ASEAN has different characteristics in developing its energy transition mechanism based on the national priorities of each country. The various situations create different opportunities, one thing in common is that renewable energy sources, especially solar, are available abundantly in the region. Fabby added that soon solar energy will be a commodity just like oil and gas at the moment. 

“Therefore, it is important for ASEAN to have its manufacturing facility (for solar panels). To make sure the operation of the manufacturing facilities technology transfer from the main producer is a must,” Fabby said.

Sara Jane Ahmed, Founder, Financial Futures Center Advisor, Vulnerable 20 Group of Finance Ministers, added that partnership will be the key for ASEAN countries in accelerating the energy transition.

“In this time, China can actually play a bigger role by providing funds and transferring its technology to ASEAN countries,” she said.

Energy Crisis Or Fossil Energy Crisis?

Jakarta, October 11, 2021 – In recent months, many media have reported on the energy crisis in Europe. In the UK, for example, many electric and gas utility companies went bankrupt and were forced to close. People are also seen queuing at gas stations to buy fuel. This phenomenon shows us that even countries with strong economies are still quite vulnerable to energy security issues.

CASE for Southeast Asia Project held a discussion entitled “Energy Crisis in UK and Europe: Lessons Learned for Indonesia’s Energy Transition” which invited speakers from the UK and Europe (11/10/2021). In this discussion, the public in Indonesia is involved in the discussion to find out various important facts and findings related to the issue of the energy crisis that is currently happening in the UK and Europe.

In the UK the, industrial and household sectors are quite dependent on natural gas. With the winter season is approaching, the demand for gas is increasing as the need to warm homes also increases. This condition, when a country relies heavily on energy sources that are vulnerable to global markets, does raise a question: is this really an energy crisis, or is it a fossil energy crisis?

William Derbyshire, Director of Economic Consulting Associates (ECA), UK, on this occasion gave an explanation regarding the fact that the primary energy mix in the UK relies on natural gas as much as 42%. Furthermore, William also showed data that illustrates that since 2017, the price of natural gas has gradually increased until 2021, which has resulted in an increase in the selling price of electricity.

“If high fossil fuel prices are the problem, then the answer is reducing dependence on coal and gas, not adding more fossil fuels,” William said.

Based on this conclusion, renewable energy is a good solution to reduce dependence on fossil energy. But not without challenges, the UK, which has 16% of wind power plants in its power generation mix, has several important points to note. For example, Gareth Davies, Managing Director of Aquatera explained that wind farms in the UK have a fairly high variability scale.

Responding to this challenge, Gareth conveyed the need to conduct spatial analysis and planning related to areas that have sufficient wind gust potential, also taking into account the historical climate data.

“By distributing wind power production over a wider geographic area, it will help improve energy security and balance the UK’s energy supply through renewable energy,” said Gareth.

In line with William’s statement regarding the importance of making an immediate energy transition, Dimitri Pescia, Program Manager Southeast Asia of Agora Energiewende explained the fact, for example, in Germany, the investment cost to build renewable energy power plants is much cheaper than to build fossil power plants. In this context, Dimitri explained that investment in renewable energy can be considered as a hedging strategy to minimize the risk of using fossil energy in the energy transition period over the next few years.

From this discussion, the public is being helped to understand the real situation and the lessons that can be drawn for the energy transition process in Indonesia. Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR said that Indonesia needs to quickly adopt the use of renewable energy to minimize the risk of an energy crisis due to dependency on fossil energy. Fabby added that the development of these abundant potentials of renewable energy in Indonesia needs to be accompanied by energy efficiency, development of energy storage technology, as well as inter-island interconnectivity.

“It should be remembered that the current energy crisis is a fossil energy crisis. The volatility of fossil energy prices is very high. The increase of fossil energy prices will have an effect on other aspects,” said Fabby, emphasizing the real cause of the energy crisis in the UK and Europe.

Closing this discussion, Fabby expresses the urgency for the public to know this issue contextually so that there would be no panic in the community. “Indonesia itself does not need to worry about energy crises that occur in Europe, China, Britain, India, because Indonesia has the advantage of a better energy transition planning towards decarbonization way earlier,” concluded Fabby.

Watch again the discussion here:

Sikap politik Jokowi dan tantangan pengembangan energi terbarukan di 2020

Sikap politik Jokowi dan tantangan pengembangan energi terbarukan di 2020

Fabby Tumiwa
Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR)

Selamat Tahun Baru 2020! Apa harapan anda di 2020? Kami di IESR berharap di tahun ini energi terbarukan dapat bangkit kembali setelah mati suri selama 3 tahun terakhir. Mengapa kebangkitan energi terbarukan menjadi harapan kami? 

Pertama, membangun energi terbarukan adalah amanat UU No. 30/2007 tentang Energi, yang kemudian diturunkan dalam PP No. 79/2014 tentang Kebijakan Energi Nasional (KEN). Tujuannya adalah menjamin kemandirian dan ketahanan energi nasional. Pasal 9 butir (f) dari PP tersebut mentargetkan bauran energi baru dan terbarukan mencapai 23% pada 2025 dan 31% pada 2050. Ini adalah kebijakan dan target pembangunan yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah sendiri. 

Kedua, peningkatan bauran energi terbarukan dan pemanfaatannya dapat membantu Indonesia mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca dari pembangkit listrik. Hal ini sesuai dengan komitmen Indonesia yang meratifikasi Paris Agreement dengan UU No. 16/2016, yang juga memuat komitmen Indonesia menurunkan emisi GRK sebesar 29% dengan usaha sendiri dan tambahan 12%, menjadi 41% dengan dukungan internasional. Sektor kelistrikan adalah salah satu kontributor utama emisi GRK. Berdasarkan kajian KESDM dan UNDP (2018), emisi GRK sub-sektor pembangkitan listrik mencapai 199 MtCO2e pada 2017 dan diperkirakan hingga 2030 akan tumbuh sebesar 10,1% per tahun. Dengan demikian pada 2030, emisi GRK diproyeksikan mencapai 699 MtCO2e (BAU). Dengan penetrasi energi terbarukan yang lebih tinggi sebesar 20% maka emisi GRK dapat turun 36% dari skenario business as usual. Dengan itu faktor emisi listrik nasional turun dari 1,005 tCO2e/MWh menjadi 0,729 tCO2e/MWh. Oleh karena itu adanya peningkatan energi terbarukan yang signifikan menunjukan Indonesia turut berperan mengurangi risiko iklim global yang akan mengancam kehidupan generasi sekarang dan generasi masa depan. 

Ketiga, dengan memperbesar pemanfaatan energi terbarukan, biaya pasokan energi jangka panjang akan semakin rendah dan terjangkau. Berbeda dengan pembangkitan energi fosil yang cenderung naik dari tahun ke tahun karena harga bahan bakar, pengaruh nilai tukar dan inflasi, biaya O&M pembangkit energi terbarukan khususnya surya, angin dan hidro relatif rendah dan kenaikan terjaga. Capital expenditure (capex) pembangkit PLTS, PLT Angin skala besar juga cenderung turun. Oleh karena itu memperbesar porsi energi terbarukan dalam pasokan tenaga listrik dalam jangka panjang dapat menurunkan biaya pembangkitan listrik.   

Pengembangan pembangkit energi terbarukan selama lima tahun terakhir nyaris mandek.

Indonesia Clean Energy Outlook (ICEO) 2020 yang diluncurkan IESR bulan lalu mencatat penambahan kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan 2015-2019 hanya mencapai 1,6 GW, lebih rendah dari periode 2010-2014 yang mencapai 1,8 GW. Ini kabar yang kurang baik karena dibandingkan target kebijakan, penambahan kapasitas ini hanya 10-15% dari yang seharusnya terbangun sesuai target RPJMN 2015-2019.  

Indonesia Clean Energy Outlook 2020

Praktis sejak berlakunya Permen ESDM No. 12/2017, yang kemudian digantikan dengan Permen ESDM No. 50/2017, pengembangan energi terbarukan mandek. Dari 75 PPA yang ditandatangani sepanjang 2017-2018, terdapat 5 proyek yang diterminasi dan 27 proyek lainnya belum memperoleh pendanaan. Sebagian besar proyek yang berjalan, tidak menggunakan mekanisme harga yang diatur di dua Permen tersebut dan kemungkinan bisa berjalan karena menggunakan pendanaan sendiri atau instrumen pembiayaan korporat. 

Yang lebih parah lagi adalah Permen No. 50/2017 telah menyebabkan para pelaku usaha swasta asing dan domestik kehilangan kepercayaan terhadap investasi energi terbarukan di Indonesia. Para investor yang datang ke Indonesia pada 2015 dan 2016 karena melihat adanya peluang investasi di bidang energi terbarukan, secara perlahan angkat kaki dan mencoba peruntungan di negara tetangga, Vietnam, yang pada 2017 dan 2018 justru mengeluarkan kebijakan feed in tariff (FiT) untuk pembangkit listrik surya dan angin. Kebijakan ini menjadi insentif bagi para investor yang berbondong-bondong memanfaatkannya.  

Pada era pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo yang kedua, ada harapan pengembangan energi terbarukan. Sejauh ini ada sejumlah sinyal positif yang mengindikasikan pemerintah memiliki keinginan yang kuat mendorong energi terbarukan Indikasinya saat memperkenalkan Menteri ESDM yang baru pada Oktober 2019 lalu, Joko Widodo memerintahkannya untuk mengoptimalkan penggunaan energi terbarukan yang dimiliki Indonesia. Selain itu, pada saat menghadiri Indonesia Mining Award pada bulan November tahun lalu, Presiden menyatakan bahwa dunia sudah bergerak menuju pada pemanfaatan energi yang ramah lingkungan ketimbang menggunakan batubara. 

Terlepas dari pernyataan dan sikap politik tersebut, Presiden Joko Widodo sesungguhnya menghadapi tantangan untuk meningkatkan bauran energi terbarukan dari 8% menjadi 23% pada 2025 seperti yang ditargetkan dalam Perpres No. 22/2017. Ini artinya, dalam lima tahun mendatang akan jadi ajang pembuktian apakah Presiden Joko Widodo mampu membangun pembangkit energi terbarukan dari 8 GW menjadi 30-35 GW dan pemanfaatan BBN untuk mengganti BBM.

Apa saja tantangan yang dihadapi Presiden Joko Widodo dan kabinetnya dan apa yang perlu dilakukan?

Pertama, kebutuhan me-mobilisasi investasi publik dan swasta.  Diperlukan investasi $70-90 miliar (~ Rp. 1000 triliun) untuk membangun pembangkit listrik dari energi terbarukan dan infrastruktur pendukungnya. Hanya 10%-15% dari kebutuhan investasi ini yang dapat dipenuhi oleh BUMN dan anggaran publik. Sisanya harus berasal dari swasta/investor asing dan domestik. Untuk menarik investasi, khususnya investasi asing, pemerintah harus meningkatkan kondisi iklim investasi dengan mengeluarkan kebijakan yang transparan, terukur, dan pasti. Kebijakan tidak transparan dan regulasi yang tidak konsisten dengan kebijakan ataupun target kebijakan menjadi penyebab investor dan perbankan menganggap investasi di sektor energi terbarukan beresiko dan tidak menarik. Regulasi Indonesia harus dapat memberikan insentif yang lebih baik, risiko yang lebih rendah dan kepastian investasi jangka panjang yang lebih baik.  

Kedua, daya tarik investasi energi terbarukan Indonesia yang rendah. Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) yang dikeluarkan oleh EY, secara konsisten menempatkan Indonesia pada peringkat bawah dari 40 negara yang dikaji. Pada RECAI edisi Oktober 2019, Indonesia berada di peringkat 38. Tiga negara Asia Tenggara, Thailand, Filipina dan Vietnam memiliki peringkat yang lebih baik dari Indonesia. 

Selain itu penilaian atas 5 indikator dan 11 sub-parameter atas daya tarik investasi yang dilakukan IESR yang dilaporkan dalam ICEO 2020 menghasilkan penilaian 6 dari 11 sub-parameter dianggap tidak memadai (insufficient). Penilaian menunjukan pemerintah harus bekerja keras dalam 1-2 tahun mendatang, tidak saja membuat kebijakan yang tepat dan regulasi yang menarik dan terukur, tapi juga melakukan reformasi fundamental yang berkaitan dengan reformasi struktur industri kelistrikan, mandatory pemanfaatan energi terbarukan yang agresif, dukungan pembiayaan dari lembaga finansial lokal dan penyiapan instrumen mitigasi risiko, serta pelaksanaan kebijakan TKDN yang rasional dan instrumen untuk memfasilitasi transfer teknologi serta peningkatan kemampuan EPC domestik. 

Ketiga, bertambahnya kapasitas pembangkit thermal, khususnya PLTU. Pada 2019-2028, direncanakan dibangun 27 GW PLTU batubara dan mulut tambang, dimana 22 GW dibangun pada 2019-2025. Dengan perkembangan laju permintaan listrik PLN saat ini yang berada di bawah 5%, jauh di bawah proyeksi laju permintaan listrik dalam RUPTL, maka diperlukan koreksi terhadap rencana pembangunan pembangkit thermal untuk mengakomodasi pembangkit energi terbarukan. Dengan mempertimbangkan pertumbuhan listrik 5 tahun terakhir, kami memproyeksikan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik berada di kisaran ~5% per tahun dalam lima tahun mendatang sehingga tambahan pembangkit baru sekitar 4 GW per tahun (rata-rata). Oleh karena itu untuk mengakomodasi pembangkit energi terbarukan hingga mencapai 23-30% dari total kapasitas pembangkit PLN pada 2025, sekitar 3-4,5 GW pembangkit energi terbarukan harus masuk di sistem PLN setiap tahunnya. Ini berarti setelah 2020, pembangunan PLTU batubara harus mulai dikurangi dibarengi dengan phasing out pembangkit-pembangkit thermal tua dan yang efisiensinya rendah. Tanpa melakukan ini, PLN akan kesulitan memasukan tambahan 20-22 GW kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan. 

Mengubah rencana pembangunan pembangkit listrik terutama menunda atau membatalkan PLTU batubara tentunya bukan keputusan yang mudah bagi Menteri ESDM yang akan memutuskan RUPTL 2020-2029 dalam dua bulan mendatang. Perubahan ini dapat mengguncang berbagai macam kepentingan, terutama pemilik tambang dan pembangkit batubara yang berharap dapat mengoptimalkan aset tambang yang mereka miliki. Tapi disinilah kualitas kepemimpinan Presiden Joko Widodo dan menteri-menterinya akan diuji. Menarik tentunya memperhatikan langkah dan strategi pemerintah (jika ada) dalam hal merumuskan kebijakan dan instrumen regulasi untuk menyeimbangkan berbagai kepentingan politik dan bisnis dalam rangka memajukan energi terbarukan di Indonesia dan memastikan Indonesia berada di jalur transisi energi yang berkelanjutan. 

Jakarta, 2 Januari 2020