Report Launching and Discussion : 1.5°C-aligned coal power transition pathways in Indonesia: additional strategies beyond the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP)

Background

Indonesia has ratified the Paris Agreement through Law no 16/2016. As a result, Indonesia is legally bound to contribute to the global struggle to mitigate the climate crisis through ambitious efforts and action in reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and limiting the increase of the average global temperature below 1.5 0C. In one of the IPCC climate model results of a 1.5 0C compatible pathway, the global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission must decrease by 45% in 2030 compared to 2010 and reach net zero emission by 2050. As of now, Indonesia is among the top 10 greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters and is still projected to increase its emissions, with the energy sector as the highest GHG contributor by 2030.

In November 2023, the Government of Indonesia published the first version of the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP), outlining the country’s power sector emissions reduction roadmap and strategies. While the plan was expected to detail how the emissions reduction and renewable targets envisioned by the JETP will be delivered with investment and policies, we find that critical elements of a successful coal power transition are absent from the current version. 

According to the CIPP report, the investment required to achieve the 2030 targets proposed in the plan is estimated at 97 US$ billion.8 These resources will cover over 400 priority projects22, including grid development, phase-out of coal power plants, and the deployment of renewable energy. Overall, 50% of the resources are allocated for investment in dispatchable clean technologies such as geothermal and hydropower, while 26% is designated for variable renewable plants, and 20% for transmission infrastructure. The early retirement of coal plants represents just 2% of the entire plan8.

Join the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) and the Center for Global Sustainability (CGS) at the University of Maryland on (insert date) to learn about new research into achieving a successful coal power transition in Indonesia. This event will launch two new reports, followed by a discussion session to disseminate key findings and recommendations to Indonesian stakeholders.

  1. To address the gaps in investment and subsequent resources, IESR and CGS assessed existing and pipeline coal power plants to determine retirement priority using a muti-criteria framework under a 1.5 0C compatible emission pathway for Indonesia. The research develops a comprehensive, high-ambition pathway for Indonesia’s coal power transition by combining a global integrated assessment model (GCAM), a power system dispatch model (PLEXOS), and bottom-up analyses. It expands the existing version of the CIPP in several dimensions, including (1) assessing the pathway that is 1.5°C aligned through 2050, (2) covering both on-grid plants and off-grid captive plants, (3) exploring a larger set of transition options for different coal plants, and (4) conducting plant-by-plant assessments to better understand the technical and economic suitability for individual plants, using the best available data. Further analysis is done to determine the costs and benefits of the early coal retirement scenario from economic, social, and environmental aspects, for a wider set of stakeholders. 
  2. The Center for Global Sustainability’s new report and database, the first of its kind on industrial parks, which is a pivotal element of the broader CIPP initiative aimed at bolstering regional economies. This launch highlights the importance of enhanced data availability, essential for understanding demand and making informed decisions about captive coal development. It also emphasizes the need to balance environmental objectives with economic growth and explores the potential for developing renewable energy sources within industrial estates.

Objective

The objectives of these seminars and workshops are:

  1. Disseminate the IESR-UMD study on transition strategies and 1.5°C -aligned pathway for on grid and captive power plants
  2. Discuss and identify aspects to consider for Indonesia to implement its coal-to-renewables strategy.
  3. Identify and propose a holistic framework for Indonesia beyond JETP CIPP to assess its transition strategies and 1.5°C -aligned pathway

Workshop and Capacity Building for Civil Society Organizations (CSO) Phase 1

Background

Indonesia, the world’s largest archipelago, is faced with two major crises: climate change and the energy crisis. The impact of climate change is increasingly felt with the increasing frequency of natural disasters, such as floods, landslides and droughts. On the other hand, the energy crisis is characterized by a high dependence on fossil fuels that are depleting and not environmentally friendly.

An energy transition towards renewable energy or clean energy is the solution to overcome both crises. Renewable energy such as solar, wind and water have great potential to meet Indonesia’s energy needs, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the impacts of climate change.

Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) and the media have an important role in encouraging the government to achieve clean energy targets in Indonesia. CSOs can act as agents of advocacy, education, and community mobilization to support clean energy. Although CSOs have an important role, there are still capacity gaps in understanding and communicating energy transition issues. Meanwhile, mass media can act as agents of education and persuasion to support clean energy. Although the mass media has an important role, there is still a capacity gap in understanding and communicating energy transition issues, especially in local mass media. This is due to the complexity of energy transition issues that require in-depth knowledge and understanding. Moreover, there are many differences of opinion and challenges on new renewable energy (NRE) as a solution for clean energy sources in the future.

To achieve the impact of CSO pressure on government policies in line with the Net Zero Emission (NZE) target in 2060 or sooner, it is important to increase CSO capacity so that advocacy and information dissemination are more targeted. To that end, IESR created a capacity building program designed to increase the capacity of CSOs in understanding and communicating energy transition issues in Indonesia.

The capacity building program is expected to benefit CSOs in improving their ability to promote energy transition through advocacy, education, and community mobilization. This capacity building program is an important step to improve the capacity of CSOs in supporting the energy transition in Indonesia. By increasing the capacity of CSOs, it is expected that the energy transition in Indonesia can be implemented more effectively and sustainably.

Prior to the capacity building program, IESR has conducted an in-depth analysis of the condition of mass media coverage in Indonesia and conducted mass media mapping. These results were used to create a capacity building concept that adapts to the needs. Needs that IESR considers important enough to be followed up will be selected as the basis for the capacity building concept.

The capacity building program will be held in two phases in 2024. In the workshop that will be held at the end of May 2024 (stage 1), climate change, the introduction of energy transition, and also the energy transition roadmap in Indonesia will be presented. Regarding climate change, it will be presented how the condition of Indonesia with current government policies will impact the NZE target. It will also explain how Indonesia’s environmental conditions and the effect of carbon emissions on climate change are occurring. The introduction to energy transition is given with material that is already structured and relevant to current conditions. The general public can access it freely and learn about the energy transition more easily. As well as the energy transition roadmap that needs joint commitment so that the NZE target can be achieved. Phase 2 will discuss more technical issues such as solar and wind power generation technologies as well as nuclear and CSS technologies. This phase will be conducted at the end of June or sooner.

About Climate Action Tracker (CAT)

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis that assesses a country’s climate action and measures its conformity with the Paris Agreement to pursue efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5oC.

CAT is the product of a consortium of two organizations, Climate Analytics and New Climate Institute, in collaboration with several other institutions. CAT has been providing its independent analysis to policymakers since 2009.

In 2022, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) officially joined as a collaborator in CAT. IESR provides assessments of other countries’ mitigation targets, policies and actions and reviews Climate Analytics’ assessments of Indonesia’s mitigation targets, policies and actions.

About the Energy Transition Academy

The Energy Transition Academy by transisienergi.id is a digital learning portal on energy transition. The materials provided in this program are reliable and up to date sources. Also relevant to Indonesia’s current conditions.

The Energy Transition Academy is an educational solution for students, civil society organizations, journalists to deepen their understanding of energy transformation in Indonesia and the world. In addition, the Energy Transition Academy also targets and develops skill building, so that the younger generation can contribute and be active in the energy transition process.

Objective

  1. Providing knowledge related to energy transition issues and renewable energy in Indonesia
  2. Understand the complexity of energy transition issues that occur
  3. Can identify and analyze energy transition policies
  4. Develop effective advocacy and communication strategies
  5. Build a common perception among mass media in the field of climate change or renewable energy in encouraging the energy transition
  6. Build networks and cooperation with various parties