The use of CCS needs careful consideration

Author : Aditya Perdana Putra Purnomo (Research team intern 2022)
Editor: Pamela Simamora

The use of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has been shown to increase anthropogenic1 carbon dioxide emissions that are responsible for an upsurge in the earth’s surface temperature by 1.07 °C from 1850 to 1990.The increase in temperature harms the environment, causing events such as droughts, forest fires, flooding, and erosion of some coastlines

Besides using renewable energy, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is considered capable of helping in reducing world carbon emissions. CCS is a technology used to capture carbon dioxide from exhaust gasses, then transport and store the carbon dioxide gas in particular storage locations (usually underground) to avoid its negative impact released into the atmosphere.2

 Figure 1. CCS Schematic Diagram (Choudary,2016)

By 2021, there are 31 CCS projects in commercial operation worldwide, and more than 90 other projects are still under development. This figure continues to increase and is the highest for the last 5 (five) years. Beside being caused by ongoing research, the increase in the number of projects is also inseparable from the support from various countries for CCS technology as an option to reduce carbon emissions.

Indonesia, as one of the largest carbon dioxide emitting countries in the world, has also begun to plan the use of CCS, especially in the electricity sector. This strategy is questionable given that CCS prices are and will remain uncompetitive against renewable energy plus storage. If CCS is installed, supercritical CFPP LCOE will double from EUR 40 per MWh to EUR 80 per MWh (USD 92 per MWh) even if transport and storage costs of CO2 remain low at around EUR 10 per tonne. In this case, the avoided CO2-eq cost is more than EUR 55 per tonne (USD 64 per tonne).

 

Figure 2. CCS Schematic Diagram of a Coal-fired Power Plant (Global CCS Institute, 20213 )

One of the CCS projects in the electricity sector, the Petra Nova project in the United States, is predicted to be the trigger for the development of CCS in the electricity sector around the world. Unfortunately, the CCS at this 240 MW power plant experienced a 30% blackout before it was finally discontinued in 2020. Since its inauguration in 2017, from the target of capturing 4.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide for 3 years of operation, the Petra Nova project has only succeeded capture 3.54 million metric tons of CO2, or 16% of the target.

Analysis from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) shows the poor performance has cost investors more than $23 million over the project’s three-year operation. In addition, during its lifetime, the Petra Nova project also generated more than 1.1 million metric tons of CO2 through the use of gas turbines for CCS power purposes. Learning from this case, Indonesia needs to reconsider the use of CCS in coal-fired power plants.

Another project, the Boundary Dam coal-fired power plant in Canada, also uses CCS to capture GHG generated from the electricity production of this 160 MW power plant. Equal to the Petra Nova project, the Boundary Dam project has also never operated according to its target of capturing 3200 metric tons of carbon dioxide annually. Judging from the achievement of annual carbon capture, the project is only able to capture carbon emissions of around 40 to 60% of the target. Even in the most productive year, the achievement was still far below the target of 3200 metric tons per year. This record was exacerbated by last year’s sluggish performance caused by a 3-month blackout of the CCS unit. The first outages took place from mid-June to July due to routine maintenance. However, shortly thereafter, a compressor failure4 brought the project to a complete shutdown from August to September 2021.

Figure 3. Achievement of Carbon Capture, Boundary Dam Project 2014-2021 (Schissel, 2021) 

In other sectors, such as industry, CCS is considered one of the most effective solutions to reduce GHG emissions. The use of CCS in the industrial sector started in 1971 when the world’s first commercial CCS was operated at Terrell Gas Processing5 in Texas, United States of America. CCS, which is valued at 7.6 million6 is still operating today. The project with a capacity of 0.4 MTPA7 is operated to capture CO2 emissions from the local gas processing industry and use this catch to increase oil well production through the Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)8 . Another CCS project in the United States is at a fertilizer plant called Enid Fertilizer, that has been operating for 40 years. This project utilizes CO2 from the manufacture of fertilizer/ammonia to sell to oil and gas production wells in Oklahoma that carry out the EOR process.

From the case study above, several things need to be considered by policy makers in Indonesia to apply CCS in Indonesia. First, the use of CCS in steam power plants, apart from being expensive, also often experiences technical problems, resulting in not achieving the CO2 capture target promised by the developer. Second, the revenue from the sale of CO2 for EOR is the prime driver of CCS projects in the industrial sector in America. Although there is no publicly available data, CO2 prices for EOR are closely related to oil prices. For instance, with an oil price of US$70 per barrel, the CO2 price for EOR is around US$30/tCO2 (Bliss, et al., 2010). Therefore, the implementation of CCS in the industrial sector (and other sectors) requires a high carbon value which can ensure that the carbon values covers the costs of capturing and transporting CO2.*** 

 

Footnote:

 

Russia’s Invasion May Affect Energy Transition in ASEAN

Jakarta, 5 April 2022 – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the past month has been steering up the global reaction, especially on energy security issues. Russia is known for its oil and gas global exporter, with the invasion going on, global leaders are taking stands in giving sanctions not to buy gas from Russia. Is this good or bad? We may need a longer time to see the impact, but one thing’s for sure, Russia’s sanction has become one of the triggers for European Union Countries to accelerate their energy transition and  seal emergency securities as well as reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.

Fabby Tumiwa, the Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), said that EU action to ensure their energy security is accelerating the transition.

“EU countries try to reduce their reliance on fossil fuel by developing technology such as green hydrogen to ensure their energy security. This is such good news for the EU region yet it has a spillover effect as countries like Germany commit to supporting energy transition in emerging countries like Indonesia. The current situation may affect the speed and funding for the energy transition in emerging economy countries,” he explained.

Sufficient funding is crucial for decarbonizing the whole energy system. Enough funding means the government will be able to build modern low-carbon energy infrastructure. As most of the emerging countries lie in the Southeast Asia region, this area has become the hotspot for decarbonization. As one of the most populated regions, Southeast Asia’s energy demand is constantly growing. Ensuring the region has sufficient funding to transform its energy system into a cleaner one will be one of the determining factors of global decarbonization.

Consisting of ten countries, ASEAN has different characteristics in developing its energy transition mechanism based on the national priorities of each country. The various situations create different opportunities, one thing in common is that renewable energy sources, especially solar, are available abundantly in the region. Fabby added that soon solar energy will be a commodity just like oil and gas at the moment. 

“Therefore, it is important for ASEAN to have its manufacturing facility (for solar panels). To make sure the operation of the manufacturing facilities technology transfer from the main producer is a must,” Fabby said.

Sara Jane Ahmed, Founder, Financial Futures Center Advisor, Vulnerable 20 Group of Finance Ministers, added that partnership will be the key for ASEAN countries in accelerating the energy transition.

“In this time, China can actually play a bigger role by providing funds and transferring its technology to ASEAN countries,” she said.

Energy Crisis in UK and Europe: Lessons learned for Indonesia’s energy transition

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Clean, Affordable, and Secure Energy (CASE) for Southeast Asia (SEA) is a regional programme running in Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam. CASE’s objective is to change the direction of the energy sector in Southeast Asia to substantially shift towards an evidence-based energy transition, aiming to increase political ambition to comply with the Paris Agreement.

Through CASE Indonesia, we would like to organize a discussion with speakers from the UK, and Europe representative to discuss what happens and what are the lessons learned. Indonesia does not have winter and reliance on natural gas is still small. However, with more intermittent power plants (e.g. solar) are planned to be installed, the government looks at using gas-fired power plants to balance this intermittency. We also hope this discussion will help set the right direction for the Indonesian energy transition.


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Indonesia Solar Potential Report

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Report Launch and Round Table Discussion

 

Bringing Indonesia to The Gigawatt Club:  Unleashing Indonesia’s Solar Potential

With energy transition becoming a global trend following action to mitigate climate crisis, many countries have integrated low-carbon energy systems into their national development agenda. Indonesia has the highest energy demand among ASEAN members, and fossil fuel resources still dominate Indonesia’s energy and electricity mix: less than 12% primary energy supply was from renewable sources, and the renewables only provided ~14.9% of Indonesia’s electricity generation in 2020 (IESR, 2021). Although Indonesia has established its renewable energy targets, i.e., 23% of primary energy mix by 2025, renewables growth in the country is slow, even stagnant over the years.

Indonesia is often called a frontier market for renewable energy, and that includes solar energy. While the technical potential is high, up to 207 GW according to Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, solar generation in the country is less than 1% – this slow growth is a combination of several inhibiting factors: lack of consistent and supportive policies, the absence of attractive tariff and incentives, as well as concerns on grid readiness. Solar energy will be key to open the doors for other renewables in Indonesia; along with the current government’s plan to issue presidential regulations on renewable energy pricing and deployment.

To support accelerated solar deployment in Indonesia, in March 2020, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) signed an MoU with the Global Environmental Institute (GEI) to collaborate on renewable energy development. To this end, we conducted two training sessions and technical exchanges on technical potential analysis of renewable energy resources by applying the Renewable Energy Implementation (REI) toolkit.

To date, with the supports from GEI, IESR has completed a GIS-based nationwide solar PV technical potential assessment in Indonesia. The assessment report is produced to provide detailed information for related stakeholders in identifying prospective locations for solar power plants at any scale, feeding energy planners and driving more ambitious solar development in Indonesia. The interests and growth need to be nurtured, yet the big question remains: what more Indonesia can do to enter the gigawatt solar installations?


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Energi Terbarukan Sebagai Strategi Green Economic Recovery Pasca-COVID19



Akselerasi pembangunan energi terbarukan sebagai strategi green economic recovery pasca-COVID19

Pandemi virus corona menciptakan krisis global yang belum pernah terjadi pada generasi abad ini. Ketika tulisan ini dibuat, terdapat 3,308 juta orang yang terkena wabah ini, dengan kematian mencapai 234 ribu lebih di seluruh dunia. Hingga akhir Maret lalu terdapat lebih dari 100 negara yang menerapkan lockdown atau partial lockdown, yang berdampak pada kehidupan milyaran orang.

Aktivitas ekonomi di berbagai tingkatan lokal, nasional, global melambat drastic bahkan terhenti. Disrupsi logistik terjadi di berbagai negara, jaringan rantai pasok terkoyak, aktivitas produksi dan konsumsi mengalami stagnasi, permintaan energi anjlok, dan sebagai akibatnya kesempatan kerja pun semakin pupus dan tingkat pengangguran meningkat, demikian juga kemiskinan meningkat. 

The coronavirus lockdown is saving lives but destroying livelihoods,” kata Tim Harford, dalam artikelnya di Financial Times, 2 April 2020. International Monetary Fund (IMF) memperkirakan ekonomi global akan anjlok minus 3% tahun ini.

Indonesia juga terkena dampak sosial dan ekonomi dari wabah virus corona. Pemerintah memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini akan jauh lebih rendah dari target yang dicanangkan tahun lalu. Kementerian Keuangan memprediksi ekonomi kita menghadapi ketidakpastian dan kemungkinan hanya tumbuh minus 0,4% – 2,3%. Sejumlah lembaga internasional memprediksi ekonomi Indonesia bisa tumbuh 1%-2,5%, tetapi berbagai prediksi tersebut tergantung pada faktor seberapa buruk dampak pandemi serta efektivitas respon pemerintah mengatasi perlambatan ekonomi dan besaran stimulus yang dialokasikan untuk memacu pemulihan ekonomi.  

Sejauh ini pemerintah merespon pandemi virus corona dengan tiga strategi: pertama, membatasi penyebaran virus corona lewat kebijakan PSBB; kedua, memperkuat fasilitas dan pelayanan kesehatan untuk menghadapi pandemi; ketiga, meredam dampak ekonomi yang diakibatkan karena aktivitas ekonomi yang melambat dengan memperkuat jaring pengaman sosial dan dukungan fiskal terhadap dunia usaha dan UMKM yang terdampak. Ketiga strategi ini terlihat dalam perubahan dan realokasi belanja dalam APBN 2020 yang mengalami penghematan anggaran K/L, realokasi belanja, dan perluasan pemanfaatan dana desa, serta tambahan anggaran untuk belanja penanganan COVID-19 yang diatur dalam Perpu No. 1/2020.

Jika diamati, respon pemerintah sejauh ini baru berorientasi pada penanganan krisis dan dampak krisis saat ini. Sejauh ini belum terlihat adanya strategi untuk melakukan pemulihan ekonomi pasca-COVID-19. Dampak dari Pandemi COVID-19 memberikan tantangan yang lebih besar bagi pemerintah untuk mencapai target pembangunan nasional, antara lain: menciptakan pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang berkualitas, menciptakan pemerataan ekonomi, mengurangi kemiskinan, dan membangun infrastruktur secara merata di seluruh Indonesia.

Kapasitas fiskal untuk pemerintah juga berkurang dengan menurunnya sumber-sumber penerimaan dari pajak dan pendapatan non-pajak. Pulihnya sumber penerimaan negara ditentukan oleh pulihnya ekonomi dunia dan ekonomi Indonesia yang masih tidak menentu. Oleh karena itu pilihan strategi pemulihan menjadi sangat instrumental dalam rangka optimalisasi sumber daya dan dana yang terbatas untuk menghadapi krisis multi-dimensi tersebut, sekaligus berupaya mencapai target-target pembangunan yang telah direncanakan.

Tantangan yang dihadapi tidak saja berkaitan dengan dampak yang dihasilkan oleh pandemi. Dunia, termasuk Indonesia pada saat yang bersamaan menghadapi ancaman perubahan iklim dan menurunnya kualitas dan daya dukung lingkungan. Ancaman-ancaman tersebut, jika tidak diatasi, dapat menjadi penghambat tercapainya pembangunan yang berkeadilan dan berkelanjutan dalam jangka panjang, serta dapat memperbesar risiko dan biaya yang harus dikeluarkan dalam menghadapi krisis serupa dengan pandemi COVID-19, bahkan yang lebih besar, di masa depan. Oleh karena itu otoritas kebijakan perlu mempertimbangkan pemanfaatan sumber daya dan kapasitas fiskal secara optimal untuk menghadapi krisis dan tantangan multidimensi dalam merumuskan strategi pemulihan ekonomi.

Di sisi lain pandemi COVID-19 menciptakan peluang bagi Indonesia masuk ke dalam jalur pertumbuhan ekonomi rendah karbon (low carbon economy) yang dapat menghasilkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi dan berkelanjutan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,6% sampai 2024 dan selanjutnya rata-rata 6% sampai 2045. Jalur ini memberikan pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih tinggi dari pendekatan business as usual seperti saat ini. Walaupun demikian pertumbuhan tinggi dapat terjadi dengan syarat jika aktivitas pembangunan mengintegrasikan mitigasi perubahan iklim untuk mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca 41% pada 2030, termasuk di dalamnya adalah pemanfaatan energi terbarukan mencapai 23% bauran energi primer hingga 2030 (Bappenas, 2019).

Untuk itu dalam menyusun paket stimulus pemulihan ekonomi pasca-pandemi, Presiden Joko Widodo harus mengintegrasikan transisi energi menuju sistem energi yang mengurangi ketergantungan pada bahan bakar fosil, akselerasi pengembangan energi terbarukan, penciptaan lapangan kerja dalam jangka pendek, dan penguatan industri energi terbarukan nasional, serta penurunan emisi gas rumah kaca. Dengan pengintegrasian ini, diharapkan stimulus fiskal yang disiapkan oleh pemerintah dapat menciptakan dampak pada ekonomi dalam waktu singkat dan meletakan fondasi pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang yang berkelanjutan.

Strategi ini sejalan dengan rekomendasi Managing Director International Monetery Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva yang disampaikan di Petersberg Climate Dialogue, yang menyatakan bahwa kebijakan fiskal yang dikeluarkan pemerintah untuk menghadapi virus corona perlu diharmonisasikan dengan tindakan untuk mengatasi perubahan iklim dan memastikan pemulihan (ekonomi) yang berkelanjutan secara lingkungan. 

Untuk itu IESR mengusulkan kepada pemerintah untuk melakukan green economic recovery pasca-COVID19 melalui Program Surya Nusantara. Ini adalah program untuk memasang Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya (PLTS) Atap sebesar 1 GWp yang dilakukan di 500-600 ribu rumah tangga miskin penerima subsidi listrik masing-masing sebesar 1,5 kWp – 2 kWp yang on grid. Program dimulai persiapannya di 2020 dan dilaksanakan di 2021 dan dapat dilanjutkan hingga 2025 untuk mendukung tercapainya target 6,5 GW dari energi surya sebagaimana target Perpres No. 22/2017 tentang RUEN.

Program Surya Nusantara membutuhkan stimulus anggaran sebesar 15 triliun di tahun pertama, dapat semakin berkurang dari tahun ke tahun seiring dengan penurunan harga modul surya. Sumber anggarannya berasal dari APBN dan selanjutnya dapat diperluas ke APBD. Sebagian besar dari dana ini akan dinikmati oleh industri dan pelaku usaha serta pekerja domestik, yang akan berputar di dalam ekonomi Indonesia.

Program ini diperkirakan dapat menyerap 30 ribu pekerja secara langsung dan tidak langsung selama setahun penuh. Untuk eksekusinya, diperlukan tenaga kerja terampil sebagai installater dan untuk melakukan O&M. Penyiapan tenaga kerja terampil dapat dilakukan dengan melakukan pelatihan yang tersertifikasi. Pelatihan ini dapat diintegrasikan dengan Program Prakerja. Pelaksanaan pelatihan dilakukan melalui bekerja sama dengan Balai Latihan Kerja, BUMN dan perusahaan EPC yang akan menampung tenaga kerja untuk melaksanakan program ini.

Program Surya Nusantara dapat memberikan berbagai manfaat bagi ekonomi Indonesia, antara lain: pertama, penyerapan tenaga kerja hingga 30 ribu yang akan mengurangi tekanan pengangguran; kedua, penghematan subsidi listrik Rp. 1,3 triliun per tahun dan akan semakin bertambah jika program ini diperluas dan dilakukan sampai 2025. Dengan penurunan subsidi dari program tahun pertama, secara kasar investasi yang dikeluarkan pemerintah akan kembali dalam waktu 10-12 tahun; ketiga, adanya potensi mitigasi emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK) sebesar 1,05 juta ton/tahun yang dapat berkontribusi pada target penurunan 29% emisi GRK dalam nationally determined contribution (NDC); keempat, merangsang tumbuhnya industri photovoltaic nasional dan terbukanya pasar dan investasi untuk industri pendukung PLTS; dan kelima, terbukanya pasar PLTS Atap.  IESR memperkirakan potensi PLTS Atap untuk rumah tangga di Jawa-Bali saja mencapai 12 GW. Pemanfaatan PLTS Atap oleh rumah tangga. bangunan komersial dan industri akan mengurangi tekanan terhadap PLN untuk berinvestasi menambah kapasitas pembangkit.

Program Surya Nusantara, jika dilakukan dapat menjadi contoh nyata green economic recovery in action, yang menunjukan kepemimpinan Indonesia merespon krisis di kawasan Asia Tenggara dan di tingkat dunia. 

 

[*] Penulis adalah Direktur Eksekutif IESR, Email: fabby@iesr.or.id

This Week in Asia | Asia’s next clean energy battle isn’t in China or India. It’s in Indonesia

Southeast Asia’s largest economy and democracy is approaching a demographic shift.

In the next 10 years, almost half of Indonesia’s population will enter the work force. Only three in 10 people will not be of working age by 2030. Conventional poverty rates are declining, millions are moving into cities each year. The island nation’s labour force will surge, and with it, disposable income and energy demands.

The picture is similar elsewhere in Southeast Asia, but while its neighbours have spent years developing clean energy options,

Indonesia has not negotiated a new renewable energy contract in three years.

Indonesia’s room for growth means it will be the largest contributor to the region’s ballooning energy demand, joining India and China as a global hotspot for power needs. Indonesia, which is Southeast Asia’s most populous nation with more than 250 million people, expects its electricity needs to almost double in the next 10 years, tripled from 2010. But its heavy reliance on fossil fuels, the highest in the region, means it may offset the rest of the region’s positive growth toward renewable energy.

But there’s some hope in sight. Indonesia expects an end to stalled clean energy growth in March, when a ministry regulation aims to attract renewables investment that has so far preferred the welcoming arms of neighbours like Malaysia and Vietnam.

It’s the “deciding year” for Indonesian clean energy, says Fabby Tumiwa, director of the think tank Institute for Essential Services Reform in Jakarta. Indonesia’s lag behind its neighbours has made much more difficult its goal to reach 23 per cent renewables from 12 per cent in its energy mix by 2025, he says.

“If you want to accommodate this 23 per cent target by 2025, starting in 2020, 80 per cent of the new energy capacity has to come from renewables,” Tumiwa says. Currently, less than 10 per cent of annual added power capacity is renewable.

President Joko Widodo hinted last year that reducing coal would become a national policy and has indicated in public speeches that sustainability is a national goal. For the 23 per cent goal to be met, however, the country may also need to cancel coal projects already in the construction pipeline, Tumiwa says.

A worker at the Tarahan coal port in Lampung province, Indonesia. Photo: Reuters
A worker at the Tarahan coal port in Lampung province, Indonesia. Photo: Reuters

Researchers also note that some grids are already at capacity but continue to see coal development, such as the Java-Bali system seeing the addition of a Chinese-owned 2,000 MW coal plant.

The March regulation aiming to reignite the interest in renewables is expected to address previous regulations that were seen to make clean energy financially unviable. In September, parliament also has an option to advance the country’s first unified renewable energy law that would guide policies on clean development.

For Tumiwa, it was the regulations in 2017 that “killed” incentives for investors to create clean energy projects. Without a renewables law, investors await ministerial regulations that can change multiple times within a year.

“It was anticipated,” says Tumiwa. “We already said in 2018 that we didn’t expect any new [project agreements] in 2019 because the regulations are crap, so no one would really like to invest.”

In a 2018 PwC report, 94 per cent of investors believed that regulatory uncertainty was a major barrier to investing in new large-scale power generation.

In 2017, two regulations shook interest in energy investment in the country, as they mandated that the state-owned power company, PLN, buy renewable energy only up to 85 per cent of the standard price of energy.

“What renewable can meet that price?” Tumiwa asks. That, in addition to shifting risk management from PLN to private companies, made many projects unbankable.

The Indonesian government believes that as a developing country, cheap electricity takes priority over environmental concerns. Coal provides 58 per cent of the country’s power, targeted at boosting the electrification ratio, which officials say now stands at 98 per cent, although some doubt the figure. Elrika Hamdi, an energy finance analyst at think tank International Energy Economics and Finance Analysis, doubts the price of coal reflects its true cost.

A coal mine worker in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra, Indonesia. Photo: EPA
A coal mine worker in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra, Indonesia. Photo: EPA

“It is often heard from the ministry that coal is cheap and renewable is expensive, which means they expect renewables to play on the same level as coal. The claim is not exactly right, and coal is only cheap because there are certain costs that haven’t been included in the price calculation,” Hamdi says.

“Indonesia does not yet have any carbon tax or carbon pricing mechanism. If we had, like in OECD countries or even in developing countries like Chile and Mexico, where they make polluters pay for each ton of CO2 emitted, then all these coal power plants would be paying more.”

The March regulation will balance the interests of investors who want to build clean energy in the country and PLN, which Hamdi describes as a “big, old, heavy dinosaur”. Electricity generation falls under the purview of PLN, including off-grid power, across 17,000 islands and remote mountainous hamlets.

“Legally, PLN retains the rights to manage the end-to-end power sector in Indonesia, from power generation to transmission-distribution to retail,” Hamdi adds. “However PLN’s capital is limited. Indonesia is so big, so vast, with so many people, it needs a lot of investment.”

Micro-hydropower and solar power, research says, have the greatest potential in Indonesia of all Southeast Asia, but combined make up less than 3 per cent of the energy mix. Small, off-grid power generators may be the cheapest way to spread electrification, but PLN has focused on expanding transmission lines. Reaching 100 per cent electrification may reduce the pressure in rural areas to migrate to cities.

To ensure laws and regulations accommodate both small and large power projects, Grita Anindarini, a researcher at the Indonesian Centre for Environmental Law, says community involvement is key. The country may rush to make up for lost time and neglect the input of civil society groups that would advocate for smaller projects that would be more appropriate for Indonesia’s difficult geography, she says.

“If you look at the scope of regulations, it’s not yet apparent how they can make community-scale power available. We need to open up as much public participation as possible.”

Artikel asli

Bagaimana Prospek Perkembangan Energi Bersih di Indonesia di 2020?

 

Pada Desember 2019 lalu, IESR meluncurkan laporan Indonesia Clean Energy Outlook 2020. Dalam laporan ini, disampaikan evaluasi perkembangan energi terbarukan dan efisiensi energi selama 2019, serta pandangan prospek pengembangan energi bersih di Indonesia pada 2020 ini. Bagaimana prospek perkembangan energi bersih, khususnya energi terbarukan di Indonesia pada 2020? Salah satu temuan dalam ICEO 2020 mengindikasikan investasi di bidang energi terbarukan mengalami penurunan.  Sejak 2015, realisasi investasi EBT terus menurun, padahal target investasi tahunan terus mengalami koreksi dari target Renstra KESDM 2015-2019. Bahkan target investasi EBT untuk 2019 sebesar $1,8 milyar hanya tercapai $1,5 milyar. Sepanjang 2015-2019 kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan (on-grid dan off-grid) bertambah 1,6 GW atau 11% dari total tambahan kapasitas terpasang pembangkit listrik sebesar 15,5 GW. Pencapaian ini jauh lebih rendah dari realisasi pada periode 2010-2014. Pada 2020 KESDM memasang target pembangkit energi terbarukan dapat bertambah 685 MW. Angka ini jauh lebih tinggi dari realisasi penambahan kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan pada 2019 sebesar 376 MW. Walaupun lebih tinggi tetapi sesungguhnya pertambahan kapasitas ini masih lebih rendah dari penambahan kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan yang ditargetkan dalam Rencana Umum Energi Nasional (RUEN). Untuk memenuhi target RUEN, setiap tahun sejak 2020, diperlukan penambahan kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan baru sebesar 4-5 GW.

Untuk dapat mencapai target tersebut maka diperlukan investasi yang cukup, kesiapan atau kemauan off-taker dan ketersediaan proyek-proyek yang feasible. Off taker yang terbesar adalah PLN yang memasok 95% energi listrik di Indonesia. Bagaimanakah status ketiga faktor ini di 2020?

Pertama, sejauh ini Indonesia belum menjadi target utama investasi energi bersih bagi investor asing. Daya tarik investasi untuk energi terbarukan tergolong biasa-biasa saja, tidak ada yang menonjol. Beberapa faktor utama antara lain: iklim investasi makro, kualitas kebijakan dan regulasi, rencana dan realisasi pembangunan energi terbarukan, ketersediaan pendanaan, serta akses pada teknologi dan rantai pasok domestik memiliki daya tarik yang lebih rendah bagi investor asing dibandingkan dengan negara-negara tetangga yang menjadi kompetitor kita. Investor berpandangan kebijakan dan regulasi tidak stabil, mudah berubah, kualitasnya rendah, dan ketidakjelasan dalam implementasinya. Hal-hal ini menyebabkan persepsi risiko investasi di sektor energi terbarukan sangat tinggi yang berakibat pada meningkatnya cost of money untuk investasi proyek energi terbarukan di negara kita.

Di 2020 ini, investor sepertinya akan mencermati langkah pemerintah memperbaiki iklim investasi energi terbarukan. Perubahan kebijakan dan regulasi yang menghambat perkembangan energi terbarukan selama tiga tahun terakhir ini ditunggu oleh para pelaku usaha. Rencana pemerintah menerbitkan aturan feed in tariff (FiT) untuk pembangkit listrik ET skala kecil dalam bentuk Peraturan Presiden menjadi angin segar bagi pelaku usaha swasta. Tapi FiT saja mungkin tidak cukup karena harga/tarif hanyalah sebagian dari hambatan pengembangan ET. Bagaimana pemerintah melalui instrumen regulasi mengalokasikan risiko-risiko tarif, kebijakan, teknologi, evakuasi daya secara berimbang untuk PLN dan pengembang, dan proses bisnis yang transparan juga menjadi perhatian para investor, khususnya investor asing. Sentimen positif akan terjadi di 2020 kalau ada realisasi komitmen politik dan produk perundangan yang signifikan di tahun ini. 

Kedua, PLN sebagai satu-satunya off-taker listrik swasta, perkembangan energi terbarukan sangat dipengaruhi oleh visi, minat, perencanaan, lelang dan eksekusi dari BUMN ini. Beban pencapaian target energi terbarukan pun sebagian besar harus dipikul oleh PLN. Untuk mencapai target 23% sesuai Perpres No. 22/2017 maka dalam lima tahun mendatang, minimal 75-80% penambahan pembangkit listrik baru harus berasal dari energi terbarukan. Pada prakteknya untuk dapat masuk ke dalam sistem ketenagalistrikan, maka proyek energi terbarukan harus masuk dalam perencanaan PLN, yaitu Rencana Umum Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL).

Pada RUPTL 2019-2028, PLN merencanakan menambah 16,7 GW pembangkit energi terbarukan dimana 8 GW direncanakan pada kurun waktu 2019-2024. Untuk mencapai target RUEN, maka kapasitas pembangkit untuk energi terbarukan harus ditambah menjadi 12-15 GW pada kurun waktu tersebut dan dilipatgandakan pada lima tahun berikutnya. Konsekuensinya untuk dapat menampung kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan yang lebih besar maka PLN perlu melakukan pengurangan kapasitas pembangkit-pembangkit thermal yang direncanakan atau yang telah dioperasikan 5-10 GW dalam lima tahun mendatang.

Ada perbedaan antara target KESDM untuk penambahan kapasitas terpasang pembangkit ET di 2020 sebanyak 685 MW dengan RUPTL PLN sebesar 933 MW. Perbedaan ini merupakan sinyal bahwa ada persoalan dalam perencanaan kelistrikan dan koordinasi, khususnya untuk pembangkitan ET. Bagaimana perbedaan ini akan direkonsiliasi dalam RUPTL 2020-2029 yang kemungkinan akan terbit dalam beberapa waktu kedepan juga menjadi perhatian para investor dan pengembang.

Ketiga, ketersediaan proyek-proyek energi terbarukan yang bankable dan siap didanai merupakan salah satu faktor yang penting dalam memenuhi target penambahan kapasitas pembangkit listrik. Selama ini ketersedian proyek-proyek pembangkit energi terbarukan yang bankable jumlahnya terbatas. Berbeda dengan pembangkit thermal yang berkapasitas besar, pembangkit energi terbarukan kapasitasnya bervariasi dari skala dibawah 5 MW, 5-10 MW, 10-50 MW, dan diatas 50 MW. Misalkan untuk PLTS yang direncanakan mencapai 0,9 GW, hingga 2025 nanti, dapat terdiri dari 20-50 proyek dengan ukuran rata-rata 20-50 MW per proyek. PLTB yang direncanakan hingga 0,85 GW hingga 2025 dapat terdiri dari 15-30 proyek dengan kapasitas 10-100 MW per proyek.

Jadi, prospek pengembangan energi terbarukan di 2020 sebenarnya lebih baik dibandingkan tahun-tahun sebelumnya dengan adanya komitmen politik dari Presiden, langkah-langkah merevisi kebijakan dan regulasi harga ET (FiT) oleh Menteri ESDM, dan dukungan jajaran direksi PLN untuk mengembangkan energi terbarukan untuk mencapai target RUEN. Walaupun demikian, aksi-aksi positif ini tidak serta merta langsung meningkatkan daya tarik investasi dan realisasi investasi pembangkit pada tahun ini. Apabila pemerintah melakukan langkah-langkah perbaikan di tahun ini, paling tidak untuk tiga aspek diatas, dampaknya pun baru akan terasa dua sampai tiga tahun mendatang, yang ditandai dengan meningkatnya minat investor dan meningkatnya stok proyek-proyek pembangkit yang siap dikembangkan secara komersial.

Pemerintah harus melihat bahwa 2020 adalah tahun untuk memulihkan kepercayaan investor, dan tahun untuk memperkokoh fondasi untuk transformasi energi yang berkelanjutan di Indonesia. Kegagalan untuk melakukan perbaikan di tahun ini dapat berujung pada hilangnya momentum positif, hengkangnya investor asing, serta hilangnya kesempatan membangun sistem energi modern yang berkelanjutan dan kompetitif secara biaya dalam jangka panjang. Kalau ini terjadi, perlu waktu lama untuk membalik keadaan.

Jakarta, 15 Januari 2020.

Clean Energy Poses Challenge to Coal-Reliant Indonesia

Stefanno Reinard Sulaiman
The Jakarta Post
Jakarta   /   Wed, April 17, 2019   /  08:01 am

The government, which is highly dependent on coal for power generation, will be facing challenges from consumers as more and more people are shifting to clean energy, an energy expert says.

Fabby Tumiwa, the executive director of local energy think tank the Institute for Essential Service Reform (IESR), made the statement after the institute published a report titled “Indonesia’s Coal Dynamics: Toward a Just Energy Transition” recently.

In its report, the IESR concludes that two types of renewable energy will be cheaper than coal-generated electricity by 2030 and wind power will be on par with coal by 2050.

“For example, the price of solar photovoltaic [PV] electricity in 2030 will stand at 4.69 US cents per kilowatt hours [kWh], while the price of coal will stand at 5.15 to 5.25 US cents per kWh,” he said.

“In other words, PLN [the state electricity firm] will lose customers soon even though the demand is growing.”

PLN’s latest 10-year electricity plan, which is called the electricity procurement plan (RUPTL), for the  2019 to 2028 period states that projected electricity consumption growth this year will stand at 6.4 percent, which is 0.46 percent lower than its previous plan.

Even though the procurement plan has been revised, it is still being seen as “too ambitious”, because a calculation from a global energy think tank, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), recorded that the average demand growth in the last five years (2013 to 2018) stood at only 4.6 percent.

Aside from losing customers, Fabby said, PLN also faced another problem related to its coal-fired power plants (PLTU) — assets that could not be operated optimally due to an electricity oversupply.

“In Indonesia, we calculated that in 10 years from now there will be an overcapacity of 13.3 gigawatts (GW) on the Java-Bali power grid with the total investment standing at US$12.7 billion,” he said, referring to a recent study by the IESR, Monash University Malaysia Campus and German energy think tank Agora Energiewende.

In its latest plan, PLN is also still heavily reliant on coal as the projection share in its electricity energy mix in 2025 will stand at 54.6 percent or 0.2 percent higher than the previous plan, while renewable energy remains at 23 percent.

It is contrary to the global movement to phase out coal, especially in Europe and even some Asian giants like China and India, which have slashed their coal consumption, including in the electricity sector.

“This is a [downward] trend [of phasing out coal power plants] that should have been anticipated by our government, especially in line with the agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions to below 2 percent,” he said, adding that to reach that climate goal, Indonesia had to stop building new PLTUs starting next year.

A recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that global coal demand will only increase slightly from this year until 2023, with China’s coal demand to decrease 2.8 percent from 2.7 billion tons to 2.6 billion tons in 2023 due to air pollution concerns.

China was Indonesia’s biggest coal export market with an annual output of around 110 to 120 million tons or around a 25 percent share of Indonesia’s export market, according to the Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI).

Meanwhile, India — Indonesia’s second biggest market — is predicted to cut coal imports from Indonesia due to higher domestic coal production because the IEA predicted that India’s coal import volume would be down 13.4 percent from total consumption in 2022 and 2023.

Therefore, the IEA predicted that coal exports from Indonesia would decrease 15.7 percent by 2023. It is well-known that 80 percent of Indonesia’s coal production is for the export market.

The APBI’s executive director, Hendra Sinadia, said the possibilities to expand coal exports, especially to Asian countries, were still wide open as some of the markets were only beginning to operate their PLTUs, which could last 25 to 30 years.

“Vietnam is currently developing massive PLTUs, of which 100 percent of the coal is from us. So, the government should have a perspective on the political side before taking any decision on cutting coal exports,” he said.

Hendra is criticizing one of the plans to cut coal exports gradually in the General Planning for National Energy (RUEN), which stipulates that Indonesia is committed to stopping coal exports no later than 2046.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s mineral business supervision director, Muhammad Wafid, confirmed the coal export-termination plan by 2046, saying the government had been pushing since 2009 for an increase in domestic coal consumption.

“We still absorb coal for the electricity sector, but we are also pushing for a diversification program for coal, such as transforming it into gas as a substitute for liquefied petroleum gas [LPG],” he said, referring to a type of fuel called dimethyl ether.

The program was started last year by state coal miner PT Bukit Asam and state energy holding company Pertamina, which inked a partnership deal with United States-based chemical firm Air Products and Chemicals Inc. for coal gasification.

This Article originally Published at The Jakarta Post