Based on the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) calculations, to reach peak emissions in the electricity sector in 2030, it is necessary to retire power plants and increase the capacity of renewable energy generators simultaneously. Meanwhile, based on the 2021-2030 Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) has stated an additional 20.9 gigawatts (GW) from renewable energy plants.
Read more on Kompas.
Jakarta, 17 February 2023 – The Government of Indonesia has launched a secretariat for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) work team, which will work today. Some of the targeted work results planned to achieve within the next 6 (six) months include the availability of a road map for early retirement for coal-fired power plants (CFPP) and the completion of a comprehensive investment plan (CIP) which will also reflect support for communities affected by the energy transition process.
The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) appreciates the progress made by the government and IPG towards implementing the JETP agreement. IESR encourages the JETP work team to compile beyond just a coal-fired power plant early retirement roadmap as targeted by JETP, but also more ambitious by aligning the target with the Paris Agreement.
“JETP is an opportunity to accelerate the energy transition and reduce GHG emissions. Indonesia’s stakes must go even further, such as encouraging green economic growth and strengthening the renewable energy industry. Indonesia should not hesitate to accelerate the energy transition because through it we can grow our economy higher,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR.
IESR calculates that to reach peak emissions in the electricity sector in 2030, it is necessary to retire the CFPP and increase the capacity of renewable energy generators at the same time.
“In the IESR analysis, to achieve the renewable energy mix target in the electricity system of 34% in 2030 according to the JETP target, instead of the 20.9 GW of renewable energy projects that have been planned in the 2021-2030 RUPTL, an additional minimum of 5.4 GW of renewable energy capacity will be needed. The addition of this renewable energy needs to be planned along with the retirement of up to 8.6 GW of CFPP, therefore, the reliability of the electricity system can be maintained,” explained Deon Arinaldo, IESR Energy Transformation Program Manager.
Reflecting on the achievement of Indonesia’s renewable energy mix in primary energy, which only reaches 12.3%, the government must be able to overcome obstacles to the development of renewable energy, such as by providing support to local producers and industries to meet the Local Content Requirements (LCR), improve procurement procedures or renewable energy auctions and diverting fossil subsidies to the renewable energy sector and eliminating the DMO policy.
“In the last five years, investment in renewable energy has always been below the target, and the installed capacity of renewable energy has only grown 300-500 MW per year. Meanwhile, the need for additional renewable energy generators will reach 26 GW more in the next 8 years or around 3-4 GW per year. The large funding commitment from JETP, which will be outlined in this investment plan, can only be realized if obstacles to renewable energy investment, such as procurement procedures at PLN, LCR regulations for solar PV that are not aligned with industrial developments and coal price subsidies through the DMO price policy can be resolved immediately in this year,” said Fabby.
As the operation of coal-fired power plants is about to end, the government must also start preparing for proper management of electricity infrastructure such as networks and energy storage, planning economic diversification in coal-producing areas, and providing training and incentives to workers and communities affected by the CFPP closure.
“Energy transition planning needs to provide clear direction in the long term, so that the negative impacts of the energy transition, for instance, on workers in CFPP & coal supply chain, reduction of regional and national revenues from coal, and others, can be identified clearly. From this, strategies can be developed to carry out the social and economic transformation, such as preparing new job opportunities, and relevant skills training for workers,” said Deon.
The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) notes the energy transition investment is still falling short. During the 2017-2021 period, the average increase in investment realization on renewable energy was only US$ 1.62 billion. From January-September 2022, the completion was only US$ 1.35 billion, or 34 percent of the ambitious target of US$ 3.97 billion.
Read more on Tempo.
Jakarta, 6 December 2022- Indonesia has submitted Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (ENDCs) documents by increasing the target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by only around 2%. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which is a member of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of three think tanks that conducts monitoring and assessment of climate change policies in 39 countries and the European Union, found that the slight increase in Indonesia’s NDC target was still insufficient to prevent a global temperature rise of 1.5°C.
In Enhanced NDC, the target of reducing emissions by own efforts (unconditional) increases from 29% in the Updated NDC document to 31.89% in 2030, and with international assistance (conditional) increases from 41% to 43.2%. IESR and CAT view that Indonesia should be able to set even more ambitious targets, especially after the issuance of Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No 112 of 2022 concerning the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity.
“Indonesia is still hesitant to set ambitious emission reduction targets and play in the safe zone. The reduction target set in the Enhanced NDC (E-NDC) is too easy to achieve because the reference is the business-as-usual emission increase projection in 2030. The emission reduction target should be based on the absolute emission level based on a certain year. To be in line with the 1.5°C ambition, emissions from the energy sector in 2030 must be equivalent to the level of emissions from the energy sector in 2010,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, at the launch of the results of the CAT assessment of Indonesia’s climate action and policies.
To achieve significant emission reductions, Indonesia needs to carry out more ambitious mitigation in the sectors with dominant emitters, such as the energy sector, and the forest and land sector. Having abundant renewable energy potential, even up to more than 7 TW, Indonesia can utilize it as a source of energy with minimal emissions.
However, until 2021, the renewable energy mix in the energy system in Indonesia is still 11.5%. IESR views that with several developments in international support and the government’s commitment to early retirement coal power plants will provide free space for the development of renewable energy so that it can achieve the target of 23% renewable energy in 2025, even reaching 40% in 2030. In the Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia Energy System study (2021), IESR concludes that by 2050, 100% utilization of renewable energy in Indonesia’s energy system is technically and economically feasible.
“Indonesia’s climate action status can be enhanced by ensuring that climate policies in this decade are implemented to fulfil a fair contribution based on global efforts (fair share). The NDC target with international assistance must also be consistent, at least with the optimal path with the lowest cost for the ambition of 1.5°C (global least cost pathways),” explained Delima Ramadhani, Coordinator of Climate Action Tracker, IESR.
According to her, the dominance of coal-fired power plants, which are currently around 61% of Indonesia’s energy system, needs to be significantly reduced to only 10% of coal-fired power plants that do not use carbon capture and storage technology (unabated coal-fired power plan) in 2030 and terminate their operations gradually until stop completely by 2040. For that, Indonesia must increase its climate commitments, and international assistance plays a major role in the implementation of the coal phase-out per the Paris Agreement.
Several funding mechanisms for ending coal operations have also been discussed and agreed upon by Indonesia, such as the Energy Transition Mechanism scheme and the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP). IESR considers that, although it is still not aligned with the 1.5°C targets, the JETP agreement is a step forward in the energy transition in Indonesia. The funding commitment of USD 20 billion is not enough to achieve decarbonization of the energy sector which requires at least a total investment of USD 135 billion by 2030.
“The portion of grants in JETP funding needs to be enlarged, which can be used to accelerate the strengthening of the energy transition ecosystem and project preparation. In addition, the next step after JETP has been agreed upon is the preparation of an investment plan that is carried out transparently and mainstreams the principles of justice in the energy transition by involving the participation of the community, local government and affected groups,” concluded Fabby.
Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis initiative that tracks countries’ climate actions and measures them against the globally agreed Paris Agreement goal of holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT has provided an independent analysis of around 40 countries since 2009. CAT members include Climate Analytics, the New Climate Institute, and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which joined as partners in 2022.
Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Fabby Tumiwa, said that the government’s interest was relatively justified because most of the funding from the JETP scheme was low-interest financing.
Read more on Bisnis.com.
Pendahuluan
Indonesia telah meratifikasi Perjanjian Paris melalui UU No. 16/2016. Sebagai hasilnya, Indonesia terikat secara hukum untuk berkontribusi dalam perjuangan global perubahan iklim melalui upaya dan tindakan yang ambisius dalam memitigasi emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) dan membatasi peningkatan suhu global rata-rata di bawah 1,5 derajat C. Dalam salah satu hasil model iklim IPCC untuk jalur yang kompatibel dengan 1,5 derajat C, emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) global harus turun 45% pada tahun 2030 dibandingkan dengan tahun 2010 dan mencapai emisi nol bersih pada tahun 2050. Saat ini, Indonesia termasuk dalam 10 besar penghasil emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK) dan masih diproyeksikan untuk meningkatkan emisinya, dengan sektor energi sebagai penyumbang GRK tertinggi pada tahun 2030.
Dengan pangsa pembangkit listrik sebesar 66% pada tahun 2021, pembangkit listrik tenaga batubara telah menjadi penyumbang utama emisi sektor energi (sekitar 40%), dan bahkan 90% dari emisi sektor listrik. RUPTL PLN terbaru (RUPTL hijau) masih mempertimbangkan penambahan 13,8 GW PLTU Batubara dalam satu dekade ke depan. Porsi energi terbarukan hanya akan meningkat menjadi sekitar 24% pada tahun 2030 menurut rencana yang sama, yang mengakibatkan peningkatan emisi sektor listrik (dan sektor energi) secara keseluruhan. Dengan demikian, hal ini jelas bertentangan dengan mandat Perjanjian Paris.
Menurut studi Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), secara teknis dan ekonomis, emisi sektor energi di Indonesia layak secara teknis dan ekonomis agar sesuai dengan Persetujuan Paris dan mencapai emisi nol pada tahun 2050. Salah satu tonggak penting adalah bahwa pangsa energi terbarukan dalam pembangkit listrik harus mencapai hampir setengahnya pada tahun 2030. Pada saat yang sama, elektrifikasi sektor transportasi dan industri juga akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik total dan menciptakan ruang serta fleksibilitas yang diperlukan untuk integrasi energi terbarukan (variabel) yang tinggi. Dengan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik yang tinggi, kapasitas energi terbarukan dan pengembangan jaringan serta interkoneksi harus dikerahkan dalam kecepatan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, mencapai 140 GW pada tahun 2030 (peningkatan empat belas kali lipat dari kapasitas saat ini).
Namun, integrasi energi terbarukan yang tinggi dalam sistem jaringan listrik berbasis kepulauan di Indonesia dianggap menantang. Perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik saat ini masih melihat sebagian kecil energi terbarukan, terutama energi terbarukan variabel (surya dan angin), yang akan beroperasi dalam sepuluh tahun ke depan. Selain itu, PLN sebagai operator jaringan listrik memiliki pengalaman yang terbatas dalam mengoperasikan jaringan listrik dengan porsi energi terbarukan yang tinggi. Studi dan pemodelan yang menunjukkan analisis tekno-ekonomi yang terperinci tentang pengoperasian energi terbarukan dengan porsi yang tinggi dalam sistem jaringan listrik nasional juga masih terbatas.
Masih banyak tantangan lain yang perlu dihadapi. Hal ini menunjukkan pentingnya analisis komparatif perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik saat ini dengan perencanaan yang selaras dengan jalur 1,5 derajat C. Memahami perbedaan dalam hal biaya, tantangan teknis, pengurangan emisi, dan kelayakan dapat memperluas pilihan dalam perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik di masa depan di negara ini. Lebih jauh lagi, sebagaimana studi IESR Dekarbonisasi Mendalam Sistem Energi Indonesia menunjukkan, Indonesia dapat memperoleh manfaat tambahan seperti harga yang lebih kompetitif serta manfaat sosial-ekonomi lainnya (pekerjaan ramah lingkungan), sambil mengatasi krisis iklim secara bersamaan.
Dengan latar belakang ini, IESR telah menyelesaikan analisis perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik, rencana perluasan kapasitas, dan uji keandalan sistem tenaga listrik dengan menggunakan PLEXOS dan DIgSILENT yang bertujuan untuk mengintegrasikan energi terbarukan untuk mengurangi emisi GRK secara keseluruhan dari sektor ini. IESR akan mengadakan webinar untuk meluncurkan laporan tersebut berjudul “Enabling high share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s power system by 2030: Alternative electricity development plan compatible with the Paris Agreement”, dan mengundang para pemangku kepentingan terkait untuk berdiskusi dan menyusun rekomendasi untuk dekarbonisasi sistem tenaga listrik.
Tujuan
Tujuan dari peluncuran laporan dan webinar diskusi adalah sebagai berikut:
“Enabling High Share of RE in Indonesia Power System”
221124-Alternative-RUPTL-1“Enabling High Share of RE in Indonesia Power System”
221124-0016-PPT-Keynote-Speech-IESR-1
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