Is Indonesia’s Plan on Phasing Its Coal-based Generation Fleet Ambitious Enough?

In the early 90s, a blackout was a common phenomenon in Indonesia. Most of the time, it occurred without further notice from the utility company, PLN. It was even worse for those living outside Java and Sumatra islands. Having been born and bred in Kalimantan, I have witnessed this within the neighbourhood close to where I lived. Almost every household there has an electric generator as a backup for when a blackout is happening. However, the situation changed when the government began ramping up power generation installed capacity throughout the late 90s, spearheaded by the utilisation of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs).

The massive development of these power plants were driven by the abundance supply of inexpensive domestic coal. Consequently, the cost of generation became cheaper than other forms of electricity generation, including natural gas-fired power plants. The development was further propelled by the electricity law no 30/2009, replacing the old law no 15/1985, which allowed private participation in the sector. In Indonesia, the deployment of CFPPs were carried out through three government-backed programmes, namely 35,000 MW and Fast-Track Programme phase 1 & 2. To date, the generation from these power plants contributes to around 65% of Indonesia’s electricity supply. The aIt is not surprising then that one third of Indonesia’s CO2 emissions comes from the sector.

Compounded with the falling cost of renewable electricity generation, the CFPPs would eventually lose their economic competitiveness. This is a situation that is not exclusive within the global context, but also within the Indonesia context. Recent study by BNEF and IESR has projected the falling cost of generation from solar PV to even below the new CFPPs by 2023. By 2040, solar PV cost of generation would be lower than the short marginal running cost (SMRC) of existing CFPPs. Upon realising that, the government has recently published a plan on retiring 9.2 GW of its CFPP fleet by 2030. 5.5 GW of the fleet will be retired early, whilst the rest, i.e. 3.7 GW, will be replaced with renewables. The plan will indeed see the CFPPs off from Indonesia generation mix by 2060. Whilst the initiative is very much appreciated, the plan itself is still quite far from being compatible with the 1.5°C pathway as rectified in the Paris Agreement. The question arises on how to then make the plan more compatible with the pathway.

According to IESR analysis, by keeping what the government has planned, the retirement program could still be made compatible with the pathway. Considering all the economic and societal impacts, the 1.5°C-compatible retirement pathway will see around 21.7 GW of the CFPP fleet, owned by PLN and IPP, to be retired between 2031 – 2040. Between 2041 – 2045, around 12.5 GW of the CFPP fleet will be retired. The analysis also shows that the accelerated CFPP retirement is feasible and beneficial. With the rapid departure of the CFPP fleet from Indonesia generation mixture, the analysis found out that the avoided coal power subsidies and health costs are actually 2 – 3 times larger than the costs on stranded assets, decommissioning, employment transition and state coal revenue losses. It is anticipated that the retirement cost from the accelerated retirement is estimated to be 4.3 billion USD by 2030 and 28 billion USD by 2045. These seemingly large chunks of cost will certainly need significant international support, despite the larger benefits gained in the long run.

Financial Support for the Energy Transition in the Residential Sector

Jakarta, June 9, 2022 – The potential for the use of rooftop PV in the residential sector is one of the largest in accelerating the energy transition and achieving Indonesia’s renewable energy mix target. Appropriate policy instruments and attractive financial support are some of the supporting factors in encouraging the massive adoption of rooftop solar PV in Indonesia.

Andriah Feby Misna, Director of New and Renewable Energy, stated that Indonesia has several national targets, i.e achieving a 23% renewable energy mix by 2025, reducing emissions by 29% with own efforts and 41% with foreign assistance by 2030, and achieving net zero emission by 2060.

“For this reason, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has developed various strategies such as green RUPTL at PLN and encouraging the use of rooftop solar in the household sector and including them in national strategic programs. As support (on rooftop PV), we issued the Minister Regulation No. 26/2021,” she explained. 

Feby added that the current number of rooftop solar customers is 4,377 households, and there has been significant growth since the issuance of a ministerial regulation that regulates PLN customers who install rooftop PV in 2018.

Feby does not deny that currently there are still barriers in the implementation of the MEMR Regulation No. 26/2021, but she said that her party is currently trying to find a win-win solution so that the regulation can take effect immediately.

In addition to regulations that are still not optimal, another obstacle to the use of rooftop solar in the household sector is the initial investment which is still relatively large for the community. However, there is still a large market potential in the household sector.

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, explained that based on a gradual market survey conducted by IESR since 2019, the market potential for rooftop solar PV in the residential sector in a some big cities in Indonesia such as Greater Jakarta, Surabaya, Central Java and Bali reached 34 – 116 GW.

“The potential of the energy transition market in the household sector is huge. Those who fall into the category of early followers and early adopters need to be caught. Because they are quite familiar with their products (rooftop PV) and have the intention to install them, but are constrained by a large initial investment,” Fabby explained.

Respondents of the survey expect credit products from banks with a tenor range of 24-48 months with low interest.

Veronika Susanti, Digital Lending Division Head of OCBC NISP bank explained that the renewable energy sector is one of the concerns of the banking sector to obtain funding.

“Currently we have a solar panel financing program with two schemes. First, 0% credit card installments and cash loan for a maximum of 36 months,” said Veronika.

She added that her party was collaborating with solar panel service providers to make it easier for customers to access this rooftop PV financing scheme as well as to learn about technology so that they better understand the risks and opportunities of rooftop PV.

Fendi Gunawan Liem, founder and CEO of SEDAYU Solar also emphasized that the potential for the residential sector to grow and develop is enormous.

“The residential sector is the sector that has the latest solar panel installation regulations, but has the largest customer growth compared to other sectors,” said Fendi.

Banks as financial institutions need to see rooftop solar as a low-risk asset, for that it is necessary to study rooftop solar power technology so that they can make accurate risk analysis. Thus, banks can design more friendly credit schemes with more diverse tenors and lower interest rates.

Kompas | Daya Beli Masyarakat Turun, Insentif Tarif Listrik Diusulkan

IESR mengusulkan pemberian insentif bagi pelanggan listrik rumah tangga golongan 450 VA dan 900 VA yang tidak mampu. Insentif tersebut berupa penggratisan tarif listrik untuk pemakaian 50 kWh pertama.

Oleh ARIS PRASETYO
·4 menit baca | Kompas


JAKARTA, KOMPAS — Penurunan tarif listrik maupun subsidi tarif untuk pelanggan rumah tangga miskin diusulkan sebagai insentif di tengah wabah Covid-19. Usulan ini disampaikan menyusul kian melemahnya daya beli masyarakat akibat terhentinya aktivitas ekonomi selama siaga Covid-19.

Ketua Pengurus Harian Yayasan Lembaga Konsumen Indonesia (YLKI) Tulus Abadi mengatakan, wabah Covid-19 di Indonesia menyebabkan penghasilan kelompok masyarakat tertentu merosot. Kelompok itu adalah yang pendapatannya berbasis harian. Di situasi seperti ini, daya beli mereka kian melemah.

”Kami mengusulkan tarif listrik diturunkan, khususnya golongan 900 volt ampere. Bahkan, kalau perlu juga golongan 1.300 volt ampere. Usulan kami besaran penurunan sedikitnya Rp 100 per kilowatt jam selama tiga sampai enam bulan ke depan bergantung pada lamanya wabah,” ujar Tulus, Senin (30/3/2020), di Jakarta.

Penurunan tarif tersebut dapat mengurangi beban ekonomi masyarakat yang rentan terdampak wabah Covid-19.

Menurut Tulus, penurunan tarif itu dapat mengurangi beban ekonomi masyarakat yang rentan terdampak wabah Covid-19. Penurunan tarif di tengah merosotnya harga minyak mentah dunia diyakini tidak akan mengganggu biaya pokok penyediaan listrik.

Harga minyak mentah dunia adalah salah satu faktor penentu tarif listrik di Indonesia, selain harga batubara, kurs rupiah terhadap dollar AS, dan inflasi.

Grafis tarif listrik di Indonesia. Empat faktor penentu tarif listrik adalah harga minyak dunia, kurs rupiah terhadap dollar AS, harga batubara, dan inflasi.

 

Sementara itu, Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) Fabby Tumiwa mengatakan, IESR sudah mengusulkan pemberian insentif bagi pelanggan listrik rumah tangga golongan 450 VA dan 900 VA yang tidak mampu. Insentif tersebut berupa penggratisan tarif listrik untuk pemakaian 50 kWh pertama.

”Mengapa batasannya 50 kWh? Dari berbagai penelitian, konsumsi listrik dalam kewajaran bagi rumah tangga miskin atau tidak mampu sebesar 40 kWh sampai 60 kWh per bulan. Jadi, negara harus menjamin hak energi kelompok tersebut,” kata Fabby.

Menurut Fabby, masyarakat golongan tersebut adalah salah satu golongan yang terdampak wabah Covid-19. Sebagian besar dari mereka bukan pekerja tetap yang mendapat upah rutin setiap bulan. Wabah Covid-19 yang sudah melemahkan aktivitas ekonomi global menyebabkan penghasilan harian mereka terganggu dan berpotensi kesulitan membayar tagihan listrik.

”Kami menghitung, kalau pembebasan tarif untuk pemakaian 50 kWh pertama per rumah tangga, dengan hitungan tarif listrik sekarang, diperlukan penambahan subsidi atau kompensasi kepada PLN sebesar Rp 2,2 triliun hingga Rp 2,3 triliun per bulan,” ucap Fabby.

Kalau pembebasan tarif untuk pemakaian 50 kWh pertama per rumah tangga, dengan hitungan tarif listrik sekarang, diperlukan penambahan subsidi atau kompensasi kepada PLN sebesar Rp 2,2 triliun hingga Rp 2,3 triliun per bulan.

Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) Fabby Tumiwa di sela-sela acara peluncuran Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF), Kamis (15/11/2018), di Jakarta. ICEF adalah sebuah forum gagasan untuk mendorong transformasi menuju pemanfaatan energi rendah karbon.

 

Pada 4 Maret 2020, Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) mengumumkan tarif listrik untuk periode April sampai Juni 2020 tidak berubah. Alasan pemerintah, selain untuk menjaga daya beli masyarakat, hampir seluruh harga energi menurun di tengah wabah Covid-19 yang melanda dunia.

Dengan demikian, tarif listrik untuk pelanggan rumah tangga dengan daya 1.300 VA dan 2.200 VA sebesar Rp 1.467 per kWh. Sementara tarif untuk rumah tangga mampu dengan daya 900 VA sebesar Rp 1.352 per kWh.

”Sampai Juni nanti tidak ada penyesuaian tarif. Ini sudah ditetapkan dengan pertimbangan kondisi keekonomian. Adanya wabah Covid-19, suka atau tidak, menyebabkan ekonomi tertekan,” ucap Direktur Jenderal Ketenagalistrikan Kementerian ESDM Rida Mulyana.

Data PLN hingga 2019, jumlah pelanggan listrik PLN mencapai 74,92 juta pelanggan. Dari 38 golongan tarif pelanggan PLN, sebanyak 25 golongan adalah penerima subsidi listrik. Golongan terbesar penerima subsidi listrik adalah rumah tangga 450 VA sebanyak 27,95 juta pelanggan. Berikutnya, rumah tangga 900 VA tak mampu sebanyak 8,04 juta pelanggan.

Dalam delapan tahun terakhir, pemerintah berhasil menekan angka subsidi listrik lewat verifikasi data pelanggan. Selama kurun 2011-2014, angka subsidi listrik berkisar Rp 93 triliun hingga Rp 103 triliun. Sejak 2015 hingga 2018, anggaran subsidi berhasil ditekan menjadi Rp 45 triliun hingga Rp 56 triliun.

IKEA, Google Cs Syaratkan Listrik EBT Sebelum Investasi

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia- Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Esesential Reform (IESR) Fabby Tumiwa berpendapat, jika pembangunan dan investasi energi baru dan terbarukan (EBT) tidak berjalan lancar, dapat berdampak pada penanaman modal asing. Pasalnya, pengembangan EBT dapat menjadi daya tarik investasi.

“Perusahaan-perusahaan multinasional banyak yang mau investasi di sini, tetapi dengan syarat listriknya menerapkan EBT,” ujar Fabby kepada media saat dijumpai di Jakarta, Selasa (31/7/2018).Lebih lanjut, Fabby menjelaskan, di seluruh dunia, perusahaan-perusahaan multinasional seperti Unilever, IKEA, Microsoft, dan Google sudah punya target untuk membeli listrik 100% dari EBT. Di Indonesia, ujar Fabby, ada perusahaan produsen sepatu NIKE dan Adidas yang sudah mulai terapkan EBT.

“Bisa tidak kita Indonesia terapkan kebijakan seperti itu? Jika ke depan mau investasi, mau tambah kapasitas, mana negara yang bisa sediakan listrik dengan EBT. Saya contoh Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, mereka bisa tarik investasi dari sini, tutup pabrik juga kalau tidak ada EBT,” ungkapnya.

“Pemerintah harus concern tentang hal ini. Ini yang mau beli itu inginnya begitu. Harus ada fleksibilitas di jaringan PLN,” tandas Fabby.

Sebagai informasi, sebelumnya, melalui Rencana Umum Energi Nasional (RUEN), pemerintah telah menetapkan target untuk meningkatkan bauran EBT dari 7% saat ini menjadi 23% di 2025 dan 2030, yang setara dengan 45 GW kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan.

Sejauh ini perkembangan EBT masih terbilang lambat, dengan kapasitas terpasang saat ini baru sebesar 9 GW atau 14% dari total kapasitas terpasangan pembangkit listrik, dan baru 20% dari total kapasitas yang menjadi target RUEN.

Adapun, meski diakui sulit tercapai, Pemerintah mengklaim tetap berkomitmen untuk mencapai target bauran energi baru terbarukan (EBT) yang sebesar 23% pada tahun 2025.

“Komitmen 23% itu kita tidak ubah sampai hari ini, yaitu tetap di tahun 2025,” tutur Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) Ignasius Jonan melalui keterangan resminya, Senin (23/7/2018).

Lebih lanjut, Jonan menjelaskan, pihaknya telah melakukan beberapa inisiatif untuk mencapai target bauran EBT tersebut, seperti  mendorong PT PLN (Persero) dan Independent Power Producer (IPP) untuk masuk ke pembangkit energi terbarukan, misalnya pembangkit listrik tenaga air (PLTA) dan pembangkit listrik tenaga panas bumi (PLTP).

Inisiatif lainnya, Jonan telah meminta PLN mengganti seluruh Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Diesel (PLTD) dengan total kapasitas 3.200 megawatt (MW) menggunakan 100% minyak kelapa sawit.

Upaya lainnya adalah melalui penggunaan Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic (PV) atau rooftop panel surya. Jonan mengusulkan untuk menerapkan penggunaan rooftop panel surya kepada konsumen PLN jenis tertentu, seperti rumah tangga golongan 1 (R1) hingga R4 dan juga golongan bisnis.

Sumber :cnbcindonesia