Playing Backdoor in Emission Reduction Solutions

Fabby Tumiwa dalam Konferensi Pers Climate Action Tracker

Jakarta, December 6, 2023 – The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has released its latest report on the climate ambition and action of 42 countries, including the European Union. CAT’s assessment shows that there has been no significant change in global temperature reduction efforts since last year.

CAT modeled four temperature increase scenarios based on current policies and actions, 2030 emission reduction targets, net zero emission (NZE) targets and optimistic scenarios. All four scenarios lead to an increase in global temperature of between 1.8℃ and 2.7℃ by 2100.

Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics said that even based on the global stocktake, the world is already off track to limit global warming to below 1.5℃.

“The emissions should be decreasing now and they should be decreasing quickly, but they’re continuing to increase. The central issue for this COP and the global stocktake is to reach a conclusion about the phasing out of fossil fuels. Unless we do that, I doubt whether we’re going to see an improvement in the temperature outcome,” said Bill Hare at the CAT press conference in Dubai (5/12).

Similarly, Claire Stockwell, Senior Climate Policy Analyst, Climate Analytics argues that countries’ emissions reduction targets for 2030 are very weak

“We assess the 2030 targets for countries that have very weak targets. So for countries that we already are projecting now can very easily meet those targets with current policies, including Indonesia,” Claire said.

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) revealed that Indonesia’s downgrade to critically insufficient in terms of climate policy and action was due to an increase in emissions of over 21% compared to last year. Fabby explained that this increase was a result of constructing new coal power plants and resuming operations of previously paused power plants due to Covid-19.

“The Indonesia government actually has made a number of policies, for instance, last year the president issued regulations prohibiting additional new coal plants for utilities but allowing captive coal under specific conditions. We believe these regulations will have an impact, though not immediately, but perhaps in the near future,” Fabby said.

Niklas Höhne, an expert at the New Climate Institute, said that this insignificant emission reduction effort occurs because many countries are proposing backdoors to continue the use of fossil energy. He gave examples of several terms that reflect back door solutions, such as unabated fossil energy, shifting the focus to fossil fuel ‘emissions’, and phasing down fossil energy. Meanwhile, according to him, based on the Paris Agreement, countries have agreed to balance emissions and sources, and this can only happen if all fossil energy operations phase out.

“If we now decide on something more vague, like unabated fossil fuels, phasing out of emissions or something, that will be a step backwards,” he added.

He also highlighted technological solutions aiming to extend the life of fossil energy, like green hydrogen for use in gas boilers or producing ammonia using renewable energy and using it in coal-fired power plants. He considers these technological choices to be incorrect, inefficient, and costly.

Low Carbon Development Acceleration Requires Target and Strategy Synergy

press release

Jakarta, August 10, 2023 – Sustainable development with minimal emissions is believed to be the key to lifting Indonesia out of the middle-income trap it has been in for 30 years (1993-2022) and transitioning towards a developed country. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) urges the Indonesian government to set ambitious, measurable emissions reduction targets and include them in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, in his remarks at the seminar “Bridging the Cross-Sectoral Gap in Pursuing More Ambitious Climate Targets in Indonesia” organized by IESR, mentioned that based on global action Climate Action Tracker (CAT) data, as measured by the current policy base, would lead to a global temperature increase of 2.7°C. However, Indonesia’s latest emission reduction target is categorized as critically insufficient, which means it is far from enough to reduce global boiling. There is a gap between current policies and emission levels compatible with the Paris Agreement. Based on Indonesia’s climate policy and action, emissions will reach 111.4-132.0 GtCO2e/year by 2030 (excluding LULUCF), 351-415% over 1990 levels. To be compatible with the Paris Agreement, emissions must fall to 0.56-0.86 GtCO2e/year in 2030 (excluding LULUCF).

“In addition, we need to look at Indonesia’s NDC shows a gap in action towards meeting the net zero target. The transportation and industrial sectors need to take action, while the energy sector already has a clear strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A transparent and measurable strategy and plan is needed to achieve the target of the Paris Agreement,” he said.

Furthermore, he alluded to the delivery of different signals from policymakers who adjust the priorities of each sector regarding climate crisis mitigation. This has slowed progress toward achieving emission reduction targets per the Paris Agreement.

“The lack of a clear strategy leads to inconsistent climate action and policymaking across sectors and inadequate budget allocations for adaptation and mitigation. It is crucial to integrate climate action into the National Long‐Term Development Plan (RPJPN) and National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) planning processes,” he said. 

He also emphasized that Indonesia’s chairmanship in ASEAN should be seen as an opportunity to encourage other ASEAN countries to adopt more ambitious climate policies and actions. Indonesia’s climate policies are considered among the most ambitious in ASEAN.

Medrilzam, Director of the Environment for the Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, on the same occasion, explained that his party had completed the 2025-2045 National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) document, which prioritized the principles of sustainable development. One of the main targets is reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by up to 95% in 2045. He says lowering emissions is closely related to developing a greener economy. In particular, in Indonesia in 2025-2045, RPJPN targets Indonesia’s per capita income to be equivalent to developed countries of around US$30,300 and enter the 5 (five) most significant economies globally.

“Reducing emissions should not be seen as just reducing emissions, and must consider economic development. Green economic interventions with low-carbon development will increase the environment’s carrying capacity and reduce GHG emissions while encouraging Indonesia’s average GDP growth in 2022-2045 to reach 6-7%,” said Medrilzam.

However, Medrilzam highlighted the amount of investment required on average of IDR 2.377 trillion per year from 2025-2045 to implement green economic policies.

“To meet this need, policies are needed to strengthen green innovative financing, such as blended finance, impact investment, carbon taxes, and others. The green investment will also provide job creation benefits of up to 1.66 million jobs/year in 2045,” he said.

Ferike Indah Arika, Young Expert Policy Analysis Center for Climate Change and Multilateral Financing Policy, Fiscal Policy Agency, Ministry of Finance, explained it is crucial to have innovative financing to support climate mitigation and adaptation beyond the State Budget. He compared the accumulated funding for climate change mitigation needed in the 2018-2030 range to reach IDR 4.002 trillion, which is still far less than the investment required for green economy policies.

“The state revenue and expenditure budget (APBN), whose allocation is monitored for mitigation and adaptation activities, is still far between what we have and what is needed. This huge disparity in funding needs, of course, cannot only be met by the limited state budget,” said Ferike.

Nurcahyanto, Associate Policy Analyst, Directorate of Energy Conservation, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia, explained that from the energy sector, to encourage the acceleration of GHG emission reduction, the termination of coal-fired power plants operation is one of the main contributions in reducing emissions in the power generation sector. Nurcahyanto emphasized that the draft roadmap for the early termination of coal-fired power plant operations with a target of retiring a total capacity of 4.8 GW of coal-fired power plants in 2030 has been completed and submitted to the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of State Owned Enterprises (BUMN), and PT PLN (Persero) for comments.