Developing Indonesia’s Geothermal Power for Energy Transition

FT

Jakarta, February 24, 2023 – PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy Tbk (PGE) is ready to hold an initial public offering (IPO) worth Rp9.8 trillion on the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Friday (24/2/2023). With these funds, PGE will develop a geothermal power plant (PLTP) with a capacity of 600 megawatts until 2027. Responding to this, the Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Fabby Tumiwa, explained two urgencies in the IPO process for PGE shares. First, Indonesia’s target is to develop renewable energy and make an energy transition. Therefore, Indonesia needs to take advantage of all its renewable energy sources. Moreover, Indonesia also needs to gradually reduce the operation of coal-fired power plants until 2050.

“The second urgency is that PGE has a business strategy, and this company will transform from an oil and gas company to an energy company. One of them will be encouraged by the development of renewable energy, such as geothermal,” explained Fabby.

Fabby said that Pertamina has large geothermal reserves, and the quality of the resources is quite good because Pertamina has been exploring since the 1980s. Thus, Fabby assessed that it could not be developed optimally due to several factors. One of the factors is funding. Bearing in mind the development of geothermal resources requires a sizable investment because they have to carry out exploration (drilling) and ascertain what percentage of these reserves can be used for electricity operations.

“In Indonesia, the cost of drilling just one well requires funds of around USD 3-5 million. With a success rate of 30% and when we drill three wells, we can get one well that is successful at generating around 30-50 megawatts (MW) of electricity, and we have to spend USD 15 million for the drilling. It envolves infrastructure and so on. This process takes a long time from drilling to turning it into a power plant,” said Fabby.

Fabby mentioned that Pertamina needs to optimize the potential of existing geothermal reserves. For that, Pertamina needs funds. One way to get these funds is through an IPO of shares. The IPO is the right step for Pertamina’s future development.

“Indonesia has the largest geothermal potential in the world, a total of around 28 gigawatts (GW) or 28 thousand megawatts (MW), of which less than 10% has been utilized until today. If we can develop this, it is hoped that renewable energy will be more competitive, especially electricity from geothermal, which can be cheaper,” stated Fabby.

Kompas | Regulatory Certainty Important on JETP Implementation

Based on the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) calculations, to reach peak emissions in the electricity sector in 2030, it is necessary to retire power plants and increase the capacity of renewable energy generators simultaneously. Meanwhile, based on the 2021-2030 Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) has stated an additional 20.9 gigawatts (GW) from renewable energy plants.

Read more on Kompas.

Excess Power Supply, PLN Needs to Evaluate the 35 GW Megaproject

Jakarta, February 8, 2023 – The State Electricity Company (PLN) is currently in the midst of a crisis of oversupply of electricity. Several factors cause this, including the pandemic and global recession. In addition, there is a 35 Gigawatt coal power plant megaproject that has been initiated since 2015 and operated at only 47% in 2022. However, there are also several misconceptions about this crisis. In a news program at the CNBC Energy Corner (6/2/2023), Herman Darnel Ibrahim, a member of the National Energy Council, and Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), discussed some of these misconceptions.

According to Herman, it is common for electricity service providers, including PLN, to set a percentage of reserve margin. Referencing other countries, 40-50% is a normal rate for the reserve margins to anticipate growth and maintenance. In 2022 alone, electricity growth was recorded at 6.15% (including from private power producers) and is expected to continue to increase in the coming years.

“On the island of Java itself, the reserve margin is probably 60%, while in other places there is a shortage of power. So in the next two years, it is estimated that there will be no overcapacity,” explained Herman.

According to Fabby, the growth percentage stated by Fabby does not reflect the actual rate of growth inside PLN, which is less than 5%. He considers that the current oversupply situation is due to a mismatch in demand projections that form the basis for planning and realizing the 35 GW. 

“Of the 35 GW that have been planned, 5.4 GW have not been contracted and have not received funding. It would be good if this amount could be canceled or diverted to renewable energy,” explained Fabby.

Herman and Fabby agree that there needs to be an evaluation from PLN in various aspects. First, it must sharpen demand forecasting for electricity use, while taking into account electricity supply from private generators. This can reduce the possibility of excess capacity, which can result in costs to be borne by the government or increased tariffs on customers.

Second, there needs to be an evaluation of electricity purchase and sale contracts with private power producers, especially those using take or pay clauses. 80% of the excess supply of electricity comes from private producers, and each GW costs the state IDR 3 trillion.

Third, it is necessary to evaluate the schedule between projects. The tendency is that project completion is adjusted to government tenure. This does not match the gradual demand growth for electricity, instead there is a sudden increase in power capacity, which causes overcapacity.

“The COD schedule (commercial operation date) should be determined by PLN, not the government’s term of office. Usually, projects are planned year by year so that there is no under capacity or overcapacity,” said Herman.

“The remaining 5.4 GW is important to monitor. The project is mostly funded by China, while since a few years ago, China has not financed coal plant projects anymore, so if it is certain that there will be no funding, it is better to cancel or divert to renewable energy. Evaluation is then important to provide stability of supply and affordable electricity prices,” concluded Fabby.