Energy Transition Finance: Possible Derisking Instruments on RE development to support the Decarbonization Process

Accelerating the decarbonization process in Indonesia will require a big amount of private and public finance, delivered in ways that respond to the needs of businesses and communities. On the public side, fiscal packages from governments are available opportunities to leverage the private sector in a transition to a low-carbon economy. Governments can also help mobilize capital from the private sector by improving investment frameworks, helping create bankable projects, and using international public financing effectively to accelerate the process. Some other derisking facilities need to be discussed to create a clean energy finance environment, reduce current perceived risks and bring down the high cost of capital. Private financial sector policies would also be crucial to channel financial flows into sustainable investments. The discussion will discuss what policies and practices are required to boost the investments needed on RE to support the transition into net zero-emission. It will start with a presentation showing the synthesis study of derisking facilities in Indonesia and some findings related to the issues. Subsequently, the discussion will respond to the results and identify how Indonesia can mobilize the capital needed to deliver zero emissions.

Measuring the Urgency of EBT Bill

Jakarta, 10 September 2021 – Since January 2021, the Indonesian House of Representatives Commission VII has prepared an academic paper for the New and Renewable Energy (EBT) Bill and is currently in the process of consolidation. This bill is considered important to provide legal certainty for the development of renewable energy in Indonesia. Even so, until now several parties have expressed objections to the substance or questioned the urgency of this law.

The development of renewable energy in Indonesia itself over the last five years has not been encouraging. The average additional installed capacity per year is only around 400 MW. In fact, Indonesia has a commitment to achieve 23% of renewable energy in the primary energy mix by 2025. Currently, Indonesia’s achievement is still in the range of 11-12%. As time is running out, various strategies are needed to accelerate the development of renewable energy in Indonesia. In collaboration with Soegijapranata Catholic University, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) held a webinar entitled “New and Renewable Energy Bill: for Whom?”. This webinar aims to explore the perspectives of various fields and hopes to formulate recommendations for this bill.

In his opening remarks, Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR reminded the importance of the public knowing about the New and Renewable Energy (EBT) Bill and having the space and opportunity to provide their views on this Bill.

“In the midst of Indonesia’s current condition of pursuing net-zero emissions of 2060 or faster, the development of renewable energy is one of the keys to achieving this target. The role of the EBT Bill is important here,” explained Fabby.

Sonny Keraf, the Indonesian Minister of the Environment from 1999 to 2001, revealed that the problem of renewable energy which is slow in progress is not a problem in the regulations, but lies in the government’s seriousness in transitioning from fossil energy to clean energy.

“So if the big question is do we need this New and Renewable Energy Law? The answer could be no. Because we already have enough regulations that regulate energy in detail,” he said.

Irine Handika, Lecturer at the Faculty of Law, Gadjah Mada University, has a similar argument with Sonny. From the legal aspect, according to her, there are several things that are problematic about the New and Renewable Energy (EBT) Bill. One of them is the term ‘new energy’ which will make this law die before it is born. This is because the ‘new energy’ parameter itself is uncertain and unclear.

“We see that currently the main problem is at the implementation level of existing energy regulations, so making new laws may not be the right solution. Even if it is considered that there are things that have not been covered in existing regulations, the solution that can be taken is revisions or amendments to existing regulations or laws,” explained Irine.

On the other hand, Kardaya Warnika, DEA, member of the Indonesian House of Representatives Commission VII, explained that the EBT Bill aims to provide legal certainty for the development of new and renewable energy in the future. In the future, this law is projected to become a guideline for achieving national new and renewable energy targets.

“We see that the energy transition is very big, this law is a way for the state to be present to lead the energy transition process. I agree that the progress of NRE is bad because the government is not very supportive of renewables, even though the state must be present and lead the energy transition process. So it is hoped that this law will provide legal certainty forever for the development of renewable energy,” said Kardaya.

The partiality of the new law will really be seen when the draft law is finalized, but we need to ensure that the substance of the EBT Bill is not counterproductive to Indonesia’s decarbonization ideals to become net-zero emissions by 2060.

Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia’s Energy System in 2050 Needs Social Political Support

Jakarta, 20 September 2021– Indonesia’s commitment, incompatible with the Paris Agreement by not increasing the mitigation target in the updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and only targeting carbon neutrality by 2060 in the Long Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience (LTS-LCCR) document, is predicted to harm the environment and the Indonesian economy in the future. Indonesia is among the top 20 countries that are severely affected by the impacts of climate change in the form of extreme weather. Moreover, the global trade trends are embedding forward the green aspect of their manufactured products. Therefore, the Indonesian industry must compete harder with other countries in the world that have already developed renewable energy technologies and various policies to reduce carbon emissions by 2050 at the latest. 

The energy transition is the right step to overcome the earth temperature’s rise and keep Indonesia competitive in global trading, however, it needs clear and appropriate socio-political support to oversee the energy transition process. It was expressed by Prof. Dr. Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Chairman of the Advisory Board of the Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF), at the opening of the annual Indonesia Energy Transition Dialogue (IETD) 2021 organized by ICEF and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR).

“For developing countries like Indonesia, the phase-out of fossil fuel energy development is crucial otherwise it will be too late and too expensive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution,” he said.

 

He said that the Indonesian government still has significant homework to do, such as immediately regulate an integrated national energy plan, mitigate the impact of the energy transition on the fossil fuel industry, use low-carbon technology in the transportation industry, and consider the just energy transition. 

Fabby Tumiwa, IESR Executive Director on the same event emphasized that based on the IESR’s study, Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia’s Energy System stated that Indonesia can achieve the target of the Paris Agreement carbon neutral by 2050. He added that this decade is vital because Indonesia must soon reach the peak of emissions in the energy sector by 2030 and boost the renewable energy mix in the electricity sector to reach 45%.

“It implies that the development and investment of renewable energy must be increased 7 to 8 times from the current status, including energy efficiency on the demand side, and start phasing out the thermal power generation to accommodate large-scale renewable energy, and modernizing our grid,” explained Fabby.

At the IETD 2021, Suharso Monoarfa, Minister of National Development Planning/Head of Bappenas in his remarks at the IETD 2021, said that the Indonesian government realized that the energy transition process needed to be carried out to reduce carbon emissions. He revealed that several steps are to be taken to decarbonize Indonesia’s energy system to accelerate the energy transition to renewable energy and develop new renewable energy.

 

“Another strategy is the energy efficiency program by considering the alignment between resource management, financial policy variables, and the role of all sectors,” he continued.

 

Still projecting carbon neutrality in 2060, Arifin Tasrif, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources added that based on the scenario prepared by the government, the electricity demand in 2060 will be 1885 TWh. To meet electricity demand and achieve net-zero emissions, several policy steps have been taken including phasing out coal power plants, massive new renewable energy development, development of Indonesia’s super grid interconnection, and implementation of energy conservation. 

 

“All of these electricity needs will be fully supplied by new renewable energy power plants in 2060. Massive addition of variable capacity of renewable energy such as solar and wind will be carried out starting in 2031. Meanwhile, the utilization of geothermal and hydro energy will also be optimized to be able to maintain a balanced system,” said Arifin Tasrif.

 

Affirming Arifin Tasrif’s statement, Dadan Kusdiana, Director General of New, Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that one of the challenges to realizing zero emissions in Indonesia by 2060 is to mobilize all sectors, not only the energy sector.

 

“Currently, in the electricity sector, the technology has already improved, while in the non-electricity sector, it still requires a more specialized study. The development of renewable energy has now begun, such as geothermal projects,” he explained.

 

IETD 2021 is held for five days, from 20-24 September in collaboration with Clean, Affordable, and Secure Energy for Southeast Asia (CASE), a partnership project from several countries in Southeast Asia and funded by the Federal Government of Germany. Further information can be accessed at ietd.info.

The Role of Media in Indonesia’s Energy Transition Journey

In the course of economic recovery after the Covid 19 pandemic, Indonesia is currently at a crossroads to choose the path of green economic recovery, or the path of economic recovery that produces high emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the Indonesian economy hard, as can be seen from the negative economic growth we are experiencing. But on the other hand, Covid 19 opens an opportunity to change the direction of economic development to be greener and lower emissions. Based on the report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 6 (IPCC AR6), we are running out of time to keep the earth’s temperature rise within safe limits. As one of the countries with the largest economic growth in the world as well as the largest emitter in the world, Indonesia has a responsibility to reduce its emissions, especially from the energy sector. In the post-Covid-19 economic recovery situation, Indonesia must find a way to get out of the economic crisis and at the same time overcome the climate crisis. Making an energy transition is a must if Indonesia is serious about ‘greening’ its economic recovery program.

 

In overseeing the process of Indonesia’s economic recovery, all levels of society need to participate in monitoring and voicing their opinions to ensure that the path taken by the government is the path that will lead Indonesia to a low-emissions economic recovery. It is important for Indonesia as a nation to carry out an economic recovery that takes into account the climate crisis because the crisis is the source of all future crises. The urgency of the climate crisis and low-emissions economic recovery needs to be conveyed to the public, one of which is through the mass media, so that people can ‘demand’ the government when the government does not choose a greener economic recovery path.

 

To help journalists provide comprehensive coverage of energy transition issues, the Clean, Affordable, and Secure Energy (CASE) for Southeast Asia program, IESR organizes training for journalists. This training includes material input on energy and energy transitions, as well as how to write coverage of energy transitions so that they can be better understood by the wider community. This program will take place in ten sessions lasting from September to October 2021, and will be attended by 20 selected journalists from various regions in Indonesia.

 

In his remarks, Fabby Tumiwa, executive director of IESR emphasized the importance of the media’s role in the energy transition process. “The community must be able to support, encourage, and voice their opinions to policy makers. This is where the media plays an important role in building community collective awareness so that Indonesia builds a greener economy,” said Fabby.

 

In the first session which took place on Tuesday, September 7, 2021, participants were introduced to the concept of energy and energy transition guided by three speakers from Agora Energiewende.

 

Tharinya Supasa, Project Lead Energy Policy South East Asia Agora Energiewende, stressed that it is important for all levels of society to understand the importance of the energy transition.

 

“Because energy is very close to us, from cooking, watching TV to working with computers or other electronic devices. So whatever happens in the energy sector will affect everyone’s life,” said Tharinya.

In the course of economic recovery after the Covid 19 pandemic, Indonesia is currently at a crossroads to choose the path of green economic recovery, or the path of economic recovery that produces high emissions. The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the Indonesian economy hard, as can be seen from the negative economic growth we are experiencing. But on the other hand, Covid 19 opens an opportunity to change the direction of economic development to be greener and lower emissions. Based on the report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 6 (IPCC AR6), we are running out of time to keep the earth’s temperature rise within safe limits. As one of the countries with the largest economic growth in the world as well as the largest emitter in the world, Indonesia has a responsibility to reduce its emissions, especially from the energy sector. In the post-Covid-19 economic recovery situation, Indonesia must find a way to get out of the economic crisis and at the same time overcome the climate crisis. Making an energy transition is a must if Indonesia is serious about ‘greening’ its economic recovery program.

 

In overseeing the process of Indonesia’s economic recovery, all levels of society need to participate in monitoring and voicing their opinions to ensure that the path taken by the government is the path that will lead Indonesia to a low-emissions economic recovery. It is important for Indonesia as a nation to carry out an economic recovery that takes into account the climate crisis because the crisis is the source of all future crises. The urgency of the climate crisis and low-emissions economic recovery needs to be conveyed to the public, one of which is through the mass media, so that people can ‘demand’ the government when the government does not choose a greener economic recovery path.

 

To help journalists provide comprehensive coverage of energy transition issues, the Clean, Affordable, and Secure Energy (CASE) for Southeast Asia program, IESR organizes training for journalists. This training includes material input on energy and energy transitions, as well as how to write coverage of energy transitions so that they can be better understood by the wider community. This program will take place in ten sessions lasting from September to October 2021, and will be attended by 20 selected journalists from various regions in Indonesia.

 

In his remarks, Fabby Tumiwa, executive director of IESR emphasized the importance of the media’s role in the energy transition process. “The community must be able to support, encourage, and voice their opinions to policy makers. This is where the media plays an important role in building community collective awareness so that Indonesia builds a greener economy,” said Fabby.

 

In the first session which took place on Tuesday, September 7, 2021, participants were introduced to the concept of energy and energy transition guided by three speakers from Agora Energiewende.

 

Tharinya Supasa, Project Lead Energy Policy South East Asia Agora Energiewende, stressed that it is important for all levels of society to understand the importance of the energy transition.

 

“Because energy is very close to us, from cooking, watching TV to working with computers or other electronic devices. So whatever happens in the energy sector will affect everyone’s life,” said Tharinya.

On Climate Crisis, Accelerating Energy in Indonesia is a Must

Jakarta, 27 April 2021 – Indonesia can protect the earth from carbon emissions by encouraging the acceleration of renewable energy development. The urge for the government to be more confident, courageous, and ambitious in developing clean energy was voiced in the discussion and book soft-launching “Footprints and Pathway for Indonesia’s Renewable Energy” by Kompas journalists hold by Harian Kompas and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) (27/4).

Sutta Dharmasaputra, Editor-in-Chief of Kompas Daily, said that Harian Kompas’ editorial policy supports the acceleration of renewable energy. He stated that the current increase in the earth’s temperature is due to the use of fossil energy so that the speeding up of renewable energy will be able to keep its temperature at not exceeding 2 degrees Celsius.

“Hydrometeorological disasters in Indonesia for one year caused a loss of 22.3 trillion rupiahs. I casually calculated that if using that amount of money to buy Padang rice, it would be equivalent to 639 million boxes of Nasi Padang (Lunch Box). It’s a huge loss, ”he said.

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, on the same occasion, said that over time, the climate crisis would have to be more serious.

“The study of experts states that if the global temperature rises by more than 1.5 degrees, it has broader implications for the ecosystem, food production, and the economy as a whole,” he explained.

An energy transition is an option that must be taken by policymakers to reduce greenhouse emissions. Fossil energy systems contribute 75 percent of GHGs worldwide. The Paris Agreement even mandates all countries in the world to develop renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

“This means, currently, our NDC target is not compatible with the Paris Agreement. If we want emissions compatible, then we have to reach the peak (peak emission) in 2030 and have to drop drastically by 2050. If it is too late, the efforts must be more drastic and more expensive, “he said.

IESR has completed carbon-neutral modeling of Indonesia in 2050 which shows that Indonesia will be able to achieve net-zero by 2050. Even by using 100% renewable energy, the cost of energy systems will be cheaper than systems based on fossil energy.

“The electricity sector is a quick win because the development of renewable energy in this sector can be faster than industry and transportation. Indeed, the energy transition policy requires many innovations, changes in regulations, and the way we look at the energy resources we have. However, if we can do 100% renewable energy, 3.2 million new jobs will be created, ”said Fabby.

In line with Fabby, the head of the writing team, Aris Prasetyo, explained that the development of renewable energy by boosting an energy transition is something that will happen. He also shared about the energy independence he met during his visit to Kamanggih Village in Kahunga Eti Subdistrict in East Sumba.

“The community is energy-independent. The electricity comes from the Micro Hydro Power Plant (PLTMH), and even they sold the surplus to PLN. For cooking, they use biogas from livestock manure. However, when this pandemic occurred, it turned out that PLTMH customers did not get a discount on electricity rates, meaning something clean and supporting government programs and climate change adaptation was not supported, while programs that depend on fossil energy received incentives, “he said.

Aris also added that policy imbalances also occur on an industrial scale, especially in the matter of buying and selling tariffs for electricity from renewable energy. He said that even the developer felt the tariff offered by PLN is not economical for developers because the production costs are higher. As for the renewable energy tariff policy, the Perpres does not establish yet.

Questioning about renewable energy policies, Sugeng Suparwoto, Chairman of the House of Representatives Commission VII DPR RI is determined to finalize the law on renewable energy, although, according to him, many interests do not support the emergence of this law.

“Even though the existence of this law will create an ecosystem that supports the development of EBT,” added Sugeng.

On the other hand, Satya Widya Yudha, a member of the National Energy Council, views that in building energy security, the government must ensure supply security, accessibility, affordability with capability, and environmentally friendly.

“If we talk about the economy, then the renewable energy that can be further developed is PLTS. We are pumping PLTS on a large scale, “he said.

Musrembang Paser: Transitioning towards green economy development

Jakarta, April 1, 2021, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR)  presented on the Transition towards Green Economic Development in Paser Regency, East Kalimantan in Musrenbang (Musyawarah Rencana Pembangunan Daerah), and Public Consultation of the RPJMD (the regional mid-plan development) 2021-2026 Paser Regency (1/4). This opportunity was a follow-up to the IESR meeting with Bappeda East Kalimantan and Paser Regency in 2020.

In front of the Regent of Paser and his staffs, IESR encouraged the Paser government to no longer rely on coal in both the energy and economic sectors but began to diversify the economy to increase Paser’s economy such as industrial development, including the agricultural industry (rice, maize, shallots), the tourism industry, and the renewable energy industry.

Energy Transition is Happening, Coal Economic Contribution Will Fall

To date, Paser has depended on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on coal. It makes Paser vulnerable to economic turmoil due to decreasing demand for export coal. It is because many coal importing countries have adopted energy transitions. Particularly, since 80% of Paser’s coal production is exported so that Paser’s economic growth is strongly influenced by Reference Coal Prices (Harga Batubara Acuan, HBA).

“Coal export destination countries such as China, India, Korea, and Japan are very ambitious in making an energy transition. Furthermore, many countries to overcome the threat of the climate crisis are moving from fossil energy to renewable energy. It is estimated that in 2050 world coal demand will fall by 40-90%. Of course, this decline in demand will occur gradually soon. It warns the regions that have been the largest coal producer, such as East Kalimantan, “said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR.

This situation was also acknowledged by HM Aswin, Head of Bappeda East Kalimantan, “Although the structure of East Kalimantan’s GRDP is still dominated by the mining and quarrying sector, the declining coal price and low demand for coal from export destination countries still make the economic growth of the coal sector minus 4.58 in East Kalimantan.”

The contribution of the coal sector to the GRDP of Paser is very large, more than 70%, but the GRDP per capita of Paser Regency has been relatively stagnant in the last decade. This indicates that the mining industry has very limited leverage to support economic growth. For this reason, the government is required to develop a new economic sector.

“Coal production is relatively stagnant, but 95% of this production activity is carried out by one company only. So that in 2016 there was a decline in the production of the mining sector, especially coal, causing negative economic growth in Paser Regency 2016 (Diskominfo Paser, 2019), “added Fabby.

A similar opinion was conveyed by the Chairperson of the Paser Regency DPRD, Hendra Wahyudi, on the same occasion when he conveyed the main thoughts of the DPRD in the context of the preparation of the Paser Regency Work Plans 2022 and the Regional Medium Term Development Plan Public Consultation of 2021-2026. He emphasized that the economic contraction during COVID-19 was significantly impacted Paser, with economic growth of minus 2.77 in 2020.

“We suggest taking strategic steps by maximizing the non-mining economic sector such as the agricultural, processing, and trade industries so that they do not depend too much on the mining and quarrying industry,” he said.

The IESR analysis shows that the agriculture, fisheries, and hunting sectors absorb more labour than mining, which only ranks fourth. Moreover, the agricultural industries have experienced less significant economic fluctuations when compared to the mining sector.

Paser’s Agricultural Industry Included in the Focus of Green Development

The direction of the East Kalimantan Bappeda (Agency for Regional Development) as placing Paser as the center of agriculture and food for the New Capital City of Indonesia (IKN), especially for rice, onion, and chilli commodities, will encourage Paser to improve infrastructure that supports the agricultural industry and protects Sustainable Food Agricultural Land (LP2B).

Increasing the productivity of rice fields can also increase employment in the agricultural sector. The calculation of the increase in land productivity to 7 tons/ha and assuming a fixed amount of land, then Paser Regency can absorb around 9,479 workers. This figure is equivalent to the number of workers in the mining sector. It means that it can absorb the workforce affected by the decline in mining activities.

Furthermore, through the IESR calculations, Paser also has enormous renewable energy potential, with the successively technical production of Rooftop Solar of nearly 81000 GWh/year, water energy of 721 GWh/year, and pumped hydro storage (PHS), 3,5 thousand GWh/year. The development of the electricity sector based on renewable energy will be able to supply electricity for IKN and other areas around Paser.

IESR also revealed that maximizing the potential of the tourism sector in Paser will encourage economic growth. The Paser government could increase the tourism sector budget to attract more tourists. By taking into account infrastructure development and road access will be essential to support the development of the tourism sector.

“Paser Regency has Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) funds of 58 billion in 2020. This fund can be used for the development of MSMEs and human resources more optimally,” said Fabby.

He suggested that the process of economic transformation requires careful planning. The Paser government must plan a more comprehensive study; the impact of the energy transition on the coal industry, local economy, environment, and health so that Paser can make a road map for Paser’s economic transformation. Another thing that needs to be prepared and deepened is the diversification of the economy, its supporting considerations, and policies.

Regent Paser in his speech also said that his party would prioritize the agricultural sector.

“I hope the agriculture department can compile a work plan to improve the agricultural program in Paser. We have large tracts of land in 139 villages. Activating this land with modern agricultural technology will open up job opportunities for youth. Agriculture will be our focus, ”promised the Regent of Paser, Fahmi Fadli.

The Government of Jambi signed an MoU with IESR to accelerate energy transition

Committed to Achieves Regional Renewable Energy Mix Target 2025 and Boosts Energy Transition, Jambi Government Signed MoU with IESR

Jambi has a regional renewable energy mix target of 24 percent in 2025 and 40 percent in 2050. This target has been stipulated in local regulation, Perda No. 13 of 2019, concerning the 2019-2050 Regional Energy General Plan (RUED). The target number of the Jambi renewable energy mix is larger than the national, which are 23 percent and 31 percent in 2025 and 2050 respectively.  To overcome challenges, such as the different understanding of energy transition definition, the Jambi government, through the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), signed the MoU with Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR). Moreover, increasing human resources capacity and enabling supporting infrastructure are also Jambi ESDM’s need to develop renewable energy.

“The potential for renewable energy in Jambi is quite impressive. However, it is not yet a priority, so we should start to develop it with a correct understanding of the energy transition. For this reason, we are working with IESR to define the right direction for maximum results,” said the Head of the Jambi ESDM, Harry Andria, at the Signing of the MoU between the Jambi Province ESDM Service and IESR (22/3 ).

Harry thought that understanding the definition of the energy transition at the regional executive and legislative levels will help in implementing the programs to achieve regional renewable energy targets. 

Agreed,  Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR on the same occasion, also stated that the energy transition has become a phenomenon that is continuously being adopted by many countries in the world. They are committed to fulfilling the Paris Agreement to keep the earth’s temperature less than 2 ° C. 

“Energy transition is unnegotiable. Accelerating renewable energy requires the commitment of all stakeholders, both regional leaders, policymakers, and the affected communities. Instrumental collaboration is needed to achieve the RUED target and build a joint consensus for the application of renewable energy,” he said. 

Fabby also views that the implementation of the energy transition and the achievement of renewable energy targets in Jambi will be advantageous for Jambi in the future. Jambi will continue to develop its economies, such as in the industrial, business, agriculture, fishery, and tourism sectors. It will require more energy, especially renewable energy.

IESR will provide technical assistance to the Jambi Government in increasing the utilization of renewable energy potential, energy conservation, and energy transition. The event was closed by virtually signing the MoU document between the Jambi ESDM Agency and the IESR.

Sikap politik Jokowi dan tantangan pengembangan energi terbarukan di 2020

Sikap politik Jokowi dan tantangan pengembangan energi terbarukan di 2020

Fabby Tumiwa
Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR)

Selamat Tahun Baru 2020! Apa harapan anda di 2020? Kami di IESR berharap di tahun ini energi terbarukan dapat bangkit kembali setelah mati suri selama 3 tahun terakhir. Mengapa kebangkitan energi terbarukan menjadi harapan kami? 

Pertama, membangun energi terbarukan adalah amanat UU No. 30/2007 tentang Energi, yang kemudian diturunkan dalam PP No. 79/2014 tentang Kebijakan Energi Nasional (KEN). Tujuannya adalah menjamin kemandirian dan ketahanan energi nasional. Pasal 9 butir (f) dari PP tersebut mentargetkan bauran energi baru dan terbarukan mencapai 23% pada 2025 dan 31% pada 2050. Ini adalah kebijakan dan target pembangunan yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah sendiri. 

Kedua, peningkatan bauran energi terbarukan dan pemanfaatannya dapat membantu Indonesia mengurangi emisi gas rumah kaca dari pembangkit listrik. Hal ini sesuai dengan komitmen Indonesia yang meratifikasi Paris Agreement dengan UU No. 16/2016, yang juga memuat komitmen Indonesia menurunkan emisi GRK sebesar 29% dengan usaha sendiri dan tambahan 12%, menjadi 41% dengan dukungan internasional. Sektor kelistrikan adalah salah satu kontributor utama emisi GRK. Berdasarkan kajian KESDM dan UNDP (2018), emisi GRK sub-sektor pembangkitan listrik mencapai 199 MtCO2e pada 2017 dan diperkirakan hingga 2030 akan tumbuh sebesar 10,1% per tahun. Dengan demikian pada 2030, emisi GRK diproyeksikan mencapai 699 MtCO2e (BAU). Dengan penetrasi energi terbarukan yang lebih tinggi sebesar 20% maka emisi GRK dapat turun 36% dari skenario business as usual. Dengan itu faktor emisi listrik nasional turun dari 1,005 tCO2e/MWh menjadi 0,729 tCO2e/MWh. Oleh karena itu adanya peningkatan energi terbarukan yang signifikan menunjukan Indonesia turut berperan mengurangi risiko iklim global yang akan mengancam kehidupan generasi sekarang dan generasi masa depan. 

Ketiga, dengan memperbesar pemanfaatan energi terbarukan, biaya pasokan energi jangka panjang akan semakin rendah dan terjangkau. Berbeda dengan pembangkitan energi fosil yang cenderung naik dari tahun ke tahun karena harga bahan bakar, pengaruh nilai tukar dan inflasi, biaya O&M pembangkit energi terbarukan khususnya surya, angin dan hidro relatif rendah dan kenaikan terjaga. Capital expenditure (capex) pembangkit PLTS, PLT Angin skala besar juga cenderung turun. Oleh karena itu memperbesar porsi energi terbarukan dalam pasokan tenaga listrik dalam jangka panjang dapat menurunkan biaya pembangkitan listrik.   

Pengembangan pembangkit energi terbarukan selama lima tahun terakhir nyaris mandek.

Indonesia Clean Energy Outlook (ICEO) 2020 yang diluncurkan IESR bulan lalu mencatat penambahan kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan 2015-2019 hanya mencapai 1,6 GW, lebih rendah dari periode 2010-2014 yang mencapai 1,8 GW. Ini kabar yang kurang baik karena dibandingkan target kebijakan, penambahan kapasitas ini hanya 10-15% dari yang seharusnya terbangun sesuai target RPJMN 2015-2019.  

Indonesia Clean Energy Outlook 2020

Praktis sejak berlakunya Permen ESDM No. 12/2017, yang kemudian digantikan dengan Permen ESDM No. 50/2017, pengembangan energi terbarukan mandek. Dari 75 PPA yang ditandatangani sepanjang 2017-2018, terdapat 5 proyek yang diterminasi dan 27 proyek lainnya belum memperoleh pendanaan. Sebagian besar proyek yang berjalan, tidak menggunakan mekanisme harga yang diatur di dua Permen tersebut dan kemungkinan bisa berjalan karena menggunakan pendanaan sendiri atau instrumen pembiayaan korporat. 

Yang lebih parah lagi adalah Permen No. 50/2017 telah menyebabkan para pelaku usaha swasta asing dan domestik kehilangan kepercayaan terhadap investasi energi terbarukan di Indonesia. Para investor yang datang ke Indonesia pada 2015 dan 2016 karena melihat adanya peluang investasi di bidang energi terbarukan, secara perlahan angkat kaki dan mencoba peruntungan di negara tetangga, Vietnam, yang pada 2017 dan 2018 justru mengeluarkan kebijakan feed in tariff (FiT) untuk pembangkit listrik surya dan angin. Kebijakan ini menjadi insentif bagi para investor yang berbondong-bondong memanfaatkannya.  

Pada era pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo yang kedua, ada harapan pengembangan energi terbarukan. Sejauh ini ada sejumlah sinyal positif yang mengindikasikan pemerintah memiliki keinginan yang kuat mendorong energi terbarukan Indikasinya saat memperkenalkan Menteri ESDM yang baru pada Oktober 2019 lalu, Joko Widodo memerintahkannya untuk mengoptimalkan penggunaan energi terbarukan yang dimiliki Indonesia. Selain itu, pada saat menghadiri Indonesia Mining Award pada bulan November tahun lalu, Presiden menyatakan bahwa dunia sudah bergerak menuju pada pemanfaatan energi yang ramah lingkungan ketimbang menggunakan batubara. 

Terlepas dari pernyataan dan sikap politik tersebut, Presiden Joko Widodo sesungguhnya menghadapi tantangan untuk meningkatkan bauran energi terbarukan dari 8% menjadi 23% pada 2025 seperti yang ditargetkan dalam Perpres No. 22/2017. Ini artinya, dalam lima tahun mendatang akan jadi ajang pembuktian apakah Presiden Joko Widodo mampu membangun pembangkit energi terbarukan dari 8 GW menjadi 30-35 GW dan pemanfaatan BBN untuk mengganti BBM.

Apa saja tantangan yang dihadapi Presiden Joko Widodo dan kabinetnya dan apa yang perlu dilakukan?

Pertama, kebutuhan me-mobilisasi investasi publik dan swasta.  Diperlukan investasi $70-90 miliar (~ Rp. 1000 triliun) untuk membangun pembangkit listrik dari energi terbarukan dan infrastruktur pendukungnya. Hanya 10%-15% dari kebutuhan investasi ini yang dapat dipenuhi oleh BUMN dan anggaran publik. Sisanya harus berasal dari swasta/investor asing dan domestik. Untuk menarik investasi, khususnya investasi asing, pemerintah harus meningkatkan kondisi iklim investasi dengan mengeluarkan kebijakan yang transparan, terukur, dan pasti. Kebijakan tidak transparan dan regulasi yang tidak konsisten dengan kebijakan ataupun target kebijakan menjadi penyebab investor dan perbankan menganggap investasi di sektor energi terbarukan beresiko dan tidak menarik. Regulasi Indonesia harus dapat memberikan insentif yang lebih baik, risiko yang lebih rendah dan kepastian investasi jangka panjang yang lebih baik.  

Kedua, daya tarik investasi energi terbarukan Indonesia yang rendah. Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) yang dikeluarkan oleh EY, secara konsisten menempatkan Indonesia pada peringkat bawah dari 40 negara yang dikaji. Pada RECAI edisi Oktober 2019, Indonesia berada di peringkat 38. Tiga negara Asia Tenggara, Thailand, Filipina dan Vietnam memiliki peringkat yang lebih baik dari Indonesia. 

Selain itu penilaian atas 5 indikator dan 11 sub-parameter atas daya tarik investasi yang dilakukan IESR yang dilaporkan dalam ICEO 2020 menghasilkan penilaian 6 dari 11 sub-parameter dianggap tidak memadai (insufficient). Penilaian menunjukan pemerintah harus bekerja keras dalam 1-2 tahun mendatang, tidak saja membuat kebijakan yang tepat dan regulasi yang menarik dan terukur, tapi juga melakukan reformasi fundamental yang berkaitan dengan reformasi struktur industri kelistrikan, mandatory pemanfaatan energi terbarukan yang agresif, dukungan pembiayaan dari lembaga finansial lokal dan penyiapan instrumen mitigasi risiko, serta pelaksanaan kebijakan TKDN yang rasional dan instrumen untuk memfasilitasi transfer teknologi serta peningkatan kemampuan EPC domestik. 

Ketiga, bertambahnya kapasitas pembangkit thermal, khususnya PLTU. Pada 2019-2028, direncanakan dibangun 27 GW PLTU batubara dan mulut tambang, dimana 22 GW dibangun pada 2019-2025. Dengan perkembangan laju permintaan listrik PLN saat ini yang berada di bawah 5%, jauh di bawah proyeksi laju permintaan listrik dalam RUPTL, maka diperlukan koreksi terhadap rencana pembangunan pembangkit thermal untuk mengakomodasi pembangkit energi terbarukan. Dengan mempertimbangkan pertumbuhan listrik 5 tahun terakhir, kami memproyeksikan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik berada di kisaran ~5% per tahun dalam lima tahun mendatang sehingga tambahan pembangkit baru sekitar 4 GW per tahun (rata-rata). Oleh karena itu untuk mengakomodasi pembangkit energi terbarukan hingga mencapai 23-30% dari total kapasitas pembangkit PLN pada 2025, sekitar 3-4,5 GW pembangkit energi terbarukan harus masuk di sistem PLN setiap tahunnya. Ini berarti setelah 2020, pembangunan PLTU batubara harus mulai dikurangi dibarengi dengan phasing out pembangkit-pembangkit thermal tua dan yang efisiensinya rendah. Tanpa melakukan ini, PLN akan kesulitan memasukan tambahan 20-22 GW kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan. 

Mengubah rencana pembangunan pembangkit listrik terutama menunda atau membatalkan PLTU batubara tentunya bukan keputusan yang mudah bagi Menteri ESDM yang akan memutuskan RUPTL 2020-2029 dalam dua bulan mendatang. Perubahan ini dapat mengguncang berbagai macam kepentingan, terutama pemilik tambang dan pembangkit batubara yang berharap dapat mengoptimalkan aset tambang yang mereka miliki. Tapi disinilah kualitas kepemimpinan Presiden Joko Widodo dan menteri-menterinya akan diuji. Menarik tentunya memperhatikan langkah dan strategi pemerintah (jika ada) dalam hal merumuskan kebijakan dan instrumen regulasi untuk menyeimbangkan berbagai kepentingan politik dan bisnis dalam rangka memajukan energi terbarukan di Indonesia dan memastikan Indonesia berada di jalur transisi energi yang berkelanjutan. 

Jakarta, 2 Januari 2020

 

Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF): Mendorong Transformasi Sektor Ketenagalistrikan di Indonesia Menjadi Lebih Bersih dan Berkelanjutan

Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), meluncurkan Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF) yang diharapkan dapat mendorong transformasi sektor energi, khususnya sektor ketenagalistrikan di Indonesia menuju sistem energi yang lebih bersih dan berkelanjutan.

Pada 2015, Indonesia berkomitmen mengurangi emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) sebesar 29% dari business as usual (BAU) di tahun 2030, dan meratifikasi Paris Agreement pada 2016. Untuk mencapai target ini, salah satu upayanya melalui pemanfaatan energi terbarukan yang lebih besar di sektor kelistrikan, dan mengurangi pembakaran batubara.

Melalui Rencana Umum Energi Nasional (RUEN), pemerintah telah menetapkan target untuk meningkatkan bauran energi terbarukan dari 7% saat ini menjadi 23% di tahun 2025 dan 2030, yang setara dengan 45 GW kapasitas pembangkit energi terbarukan. Sejauh ini perkembangan energi terbarukan masih terbilang lambat, dengan kapasitas terpasang saat ini baru sebesar 9 GW atau 14% dari total kapasitas terpasang pembangkit listrik, dan baru 20% dari total kapasitas yang menjadi target RUEN.

Sementara itu, penyediaan tenaga listrik di seluruh dunia sedang mengalami transformasi yang besar, dengan semakin terjangkau dan kompetitifnya harga listrik dari variable renewable energy (VRE) seperti angin dan surya dibandingkan dengan listrik dari pembangkit fosil, semakin berkembangnya teknologi pembangkit terdistribusi, dan transformasi digital di sektor kelistrikan melahirkan trend 4D: dekarbonisasi, desentralisasi dan digitalisasi serta demokratisasi sistem penyediaan listrik. Kecenderungan ini dapat menjadi faktor disruptif bagi sistem kelistrikan saat ini di Indonesia yang masih bersifat monopolistik, tersentralisasi, dan mengandalkan pembangkit berbahan bakar fosil. Potensi disrupsi tersebut dapat menyebabkan terjadinya aset-aset terdampar (stranded assets) dari infrastruktur pembangkit dan transmisi serta distribusi (T&D) yang dibangun saat ini dan di masa depan, yang membawa konsekuensi sosial, ekonomi dan finansial.

Mencermati perkembangan yang terjadi, sejak 2017 lalu, Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) bersama dengan Prof. Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, yang pernah menjabat sebagai menteri di sejumlah kabinet dan menjadi pendiri dan Ketua Dewan Sekolah SBM ITB, menginisiasi terbentuknya Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF).

ICEF merupakan forum multi-pihak yang beranggotakan sekitar 25 orang yang merupakan eminent person di sektor energi di Indonesia dari latar belakang birokrat, akademisi, pebisnis, pimpinan BUMN energi, dan organisasi non-pemerintah. ICEF diperkenalkan untuk pertama kalinya kepada publik di hari ini. Prof. Kuntoro Mangkusubroto menjadi Ketua Dewan Pengarah (Advisory Council), adapun IESR didapuk menjadi sekretariat ICEF.

ICEF dimaksudkan sebagai wadah untuk berbagi dan tukar menukar gagasan yang objektif dan inovatif tentang transformasi sektor kelistrikan, dan tindakan adaptasi untuk menghadapi potensi disrupsi yang akan terjadi di masa depan. Gagasan dan pendekatan yang dibahas dalam forum ini diharapkan dapat mendukung para pengambil kebijakan dalam menyusun kebijakan dan kerangka regulasi yang memadai, serta menyusun strategi sektor kelistrikan yang berkembang seiring dengan perubahan teknologi yang cepat sehingga dapat mengakselerasi pemanfaatan energi terbarukan dan menghindari risiko stranded asset di masa depan. Isu-isu yang dibahas di ICEF berdasarkan pada hasil penelitian dan analisa data yang kokoh, yang dilakukan oleh IESR, maupun mitra-mitra pengetahuan lainnya.

Fabby Tumiwa, Direktur Eksekutif IESR menjelaskan melalui proses yang terjadi di dalam ICEF, para anggotanya yang memiliki pengaruh dan peran dalam hal perencanaan dan proses penyusunan kebijakan, investasi, dan strategi korporasi diharapkan dapat mengimplementasikan gagasan-gagasan dan rekomendasi yang relevan. Mereka juga diharapkan dapat menjadi katalisator terhadap persemaian gagasan transisi atau transformasi energi di Indonesia.

Peluncuran ICEF direncanakan pada November 2018, dimana pada saat tersebut juga akan dilakukan simposium yang membahas isu-isu mutakhir terkait dengan trend 4D yang terjadi di sektor energi, implikasi terhadap kebijakan, regulasi dan program di tingkat sektoral, dan praktek-praktek terbaik dari sejumlah negara yang relevan dengan situasi Indonesia.

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Nara hubung

Jannata Giwangkara (Egi)

egi@iesr.or.id

0812 8487 3488