Jakarta, October 22, 2025 – As the Conference of Parties (COP) 30 approaches, 99 signatories to the Paris Agreement have submitted Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) documents as a commitment to reducing GHG emissions and curbing global warming.
Indonesia is currently in the process of drafting its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC). Indonesia’s SNDC document will serve as a reference for Indonesia’s climate action, particularly for the 2031-2035 period. An ambitious and progressive SNDC commitment will strengthen Indonesia’s influence in global diplomacy, enhance economic competitiveness, and enhance national sovereignty.
Fabby Tumiwa, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), said in a webinar titled “Road to COP30 – Indonesia’s SNDC,” that it is crucial for Indonesia to demonstrate a climate commitment that is responsive to the ongoing climate crisis.
“The scientific consensus is clear. We must peak global emissions quickly and implement substantial reductions this decade to remain within the 1.5-degree temperature target. For Indonesia, as a developing country and a major global emitter, this urgency is a moral and existential mandate to act decisively. That is why the IESR continues to push for a more ambitious Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC) for Indonesia,” said Fabby.
Fabby outlined three pillars that underpin Indonesia’s ambitious SNDC. First, investing in national sovereignty. A robust NDC will protect coastal communities, ensure food, water, and energy security, and strengthen national resilience to disasters. Second, creating economic opportunities. To remain aligned with the 1.5°C pathway, IESR analysis shows that Indonesia’s renewable energy mix needs to reach at least 40% by 2030 and around 55% by 2035. Ambitious targets can attract green investment, reduce the risk of assets becoming depleted due to dependence on fossil fuels, and position Indonesia as a leader in clean energy technology.
Third, reflecting Indonesia’s global leadership. As a large economy and an archipelagic nation, Indonesia’s climate commitments can inspire countries in the Global South to act more boldly.
Delima Ramadhani, Climate Policy Coordinator at the IESR, stated that Indonesia’s current draft SNDC does not demonstrate sufficient commitment to achieving the Paris Agreement targets. The draft is unambitious and suggests that the 2030 target will be easily achieved without significant changes to national climate policy. This contradicts the results of the first Global Stock Take, which significantly increased the 2030 climate target. Furthermore, emissions reduction efforts still rely heavily on the land use and forestry (LULUCF) sector, with minimal support from the energy and industrial sectors.
Delima explained that to align with the 1.5°C pathway, Indonesia needs to set a conditional emission reduction target of 850 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, excluding the land use sector (LULUCF), and 720 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2035. As a developing country, Indonesia needs technical and financial assistance to achieve this target.
“An ambitious NDC means protecting humanity. The climate crisis causes injustice. The most impacted communities are those in developing and tropical countries like Indonesia, which contribute the least to emissions reductions but suffer the most from the climate crisis,” Delima added.
Ryna Cui, Associate Director of the Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, said that Indonesia’s emissions profile is dominated by three sectors: land use, methane emissions, and emissions from the energy and industrial sectors.
“There are several things the Indonesian government must consider (in preparing the SNDC), one of which is the need to add 33-40 GW of renewable energy capacity per year by 2035. Our latest study shows that in the high-ambition scenario, taking into account economic growth, alignment with the Paris targets, economic capacity, and environmental sustainability factors, there are projections for more balanced emission reductions across all sectors,” said Ryna.
Ryna added that the energy and waste sectors have significant opportunities for reducing emissions in the near future. Among CO₂ emissions from energy and industry, the electricity sector is the main driver, with a potential emission reduction of 35-44% by 2035. While the industrial and transportation sectors will continue to grow, the rate of increase is expected to slow before starting to decline after 2040.
The existence of captive coal-fired power plants in the industrial sector remains a major challenge. Therefore, the development of grid-connected renewable energy systems (on-grid) is necessary to reduce dependence on off-grid coal-fired power plants.
On the other hand, the share of coal in electricity generation could fall from 62% in 2023 to below 15% in 2035. To support this transition, modernization of the electricity grid is needed to reduce dependence on captive power plants.
