Media Briefing: Civil Society Recommendations for Indonesia’s Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC)

Background

The first Global Stocktake (GST), conducted during COP-28 in Dubai last year, revealed that the policies and actions taken by the world’s countries are still unable to contain the rise in average global temperature by 1.5 degrees Celsius – in line with the Paris Agreement. The results of The First Technical Dialogue of Global Stocktake have shown the gap of action. This will be the basis for negotiations and increasing ambition to reduce global emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement. In connection with this, the Government of Indonesia, through KLHK, will also update the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) document to become the Second NDC (SNDC) in 2024 for emission reductions in 2030 and 2035 (KLHK, 2024).

Responding to this, the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) together with a number of civil society organizations (CSOs) have compiled sectoral recommendations so that the SNDC can update the scenarios used, set targets that are in line with the goal of limiting global warming below 2 degrees Celsius and trying to achieve 1.5 degrees Celsius as the target of the Paris Agreement, which was also confirmed by the Global Stocktake decision at COP 28.

In terms of emission calculation, IESR and several CSOs criticized the use of emission reduction calculation using business as usual (BAU) scenario. The latest emission projection by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) for the Enhanced NDC shows an increase in emissions to 1.7-1.8 giga tons of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030. This does not include emissions from the forestry and land sectors. Indonesia needs to target 2030 emission reductions in the range of 829-859 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to align with the 1.5 degree Celsius target or 970-1060 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (both ranges of emission levels, excluding forestry and land sector emissions) for a target below 2 degrees Celsius (CAT, 2024). Civil society views the BAU scenario that is still in use as irrelevant as the basis for calculating emissions. Therefore, Indonesia needs to switch to an accurate calculation system that uses a reference to relative emissions in a particular year, taking into account a more realistic trajectory of global and Indonesian economic growth.

Civil society also criticized the Enhanced NDC (ENDC) emission reduction target. Although it seems to have increased compared to the previous NDC target, the emission reduction target in ENDC is still not in line with limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. If using the BAU scenario until 2030, at least Indonesia’s emission reduction target ranges from 60-62 percent below BAU. Alternatively, using 2022 emissions, IESR’s analysis found that Indonesia needs to reduce emissions by at least 26 percent or 859 MtCO2e, and 28 percent with international assistance (conditional) or 829 MtCO2e from base year emissions. Setting such emission targets would contribute to limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (IESR, 2024).

Along with increasing the emission reduction target, Indonesia also needs to reduce the mix of fossil energy such as coal and gas in Indonesia’s energy system. The coal mix in Indonesia’s electricity system, based on Climate Action Tracker (CAT) calculations, should be reduced to 7 to 16 percent by 2030 and stop the operation of PLTU before 2040. Meanwhile, gas needs to be reduced to 8 to 10 percent by 2030 and cease operations by 2050. To be in line with the 1.5 degree Celsius pathway, the renewable energy mix in primary energy needs to reach 55 percent by 2030. Unfortunately, the Draft Government Regulation (RPP) of the National Energy Policy (KEN) being drafted by the National Energy Council (DEN) only aims for a renewable energy mix target of 19-21 percent by 2030. Not only that, in terms of emission reduction targets, for the energy sector the KEN RPP implies a target level of emissions in the energy sector that is still large, namely 1,074-1,233 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030 ((CAT, 2024).

The reduction in the fossil energy mix should be substituted by an increase in the renewable energy mix of 55 to 82 percent by 2030. However, the target listed in the ENDC is not a renewable energy mix target, but a target for installed renewable energy capacity. This does not clearly show the relationship with emission reduction.

IESR and other CSOs also urge the government to involve public participation in the SNDC preparation process. In addition, the government also needs to implement the principles of Article 4 Line 13 in the Paris Agreement and the provisions in the COP series in preparing the SNDC. In addition, IESR and other civil society organizations also view the ENDC document as negligent in incorporating the principle of climate justice. Civil society encourages the preparation of the SNDC to accommodate wider participation, provide climate protection for vulnerable groups, and take place transparently.

In particular, IESR and other CSOs provide six recommendations for the preparation of the SNDC. The government in preparing the SNDC needs to, first, consider the principles of the Paris Agreement in accordance with Article. 4 Line 13 and in accordance with the guidelines adopted by the COP. Second, consider the integration of measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) for developing country parties. Third, abandon using the BAU scenario as the basis for calculating emission reductions and switch to using relative emissions in a particular year, taking into account more accurate global and Indonesian economic growth. Fourth, setting climate targets in line with the Paris Agreement. Fifth, implementing transparent and publicly accessible monitoring and evaluation. Sixth, incorporate and implement climate justice principles. These recommendations for the SNDC have been submitted to relevant ministries and institutions.

To increase media awareness on the progress of the SNDC and other climate change commitments while expanding the outreach of civil society recommendations, IESR will conduct a media briefing on the issue. In general, the media briefing will discuss trends in the development of climate change commitments (NDC, ENDC, and SNDC), projected emission increases and sectoral impacts, as well as criticism and recommendations from civil society on the latest SNDC developments. This activity is also expected to open the potential for further collaboration between CSOs and the media in guarding climate change and environmental issues.

Objectives

1. Increase media awareness on the progress of Indonesia’s climate change commitments.
2. Expanding the reach of publicity of CSO recommendations for the preparation of the SNDC.
3. To open potential collaboration between CSOs and media.

Presentation

The CAT Guide to a Good 2035 Climate Target – Anindita Hapsari

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Energy Sector SNDC Civil Society Input – Akbar Bagaskara

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Recommendation SNDC of FOLU Sector – Madani – Yosi Amelia

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