Public Discussion on Indonesia’s Climate Responsibility: Examining the SNDC Target and the Path to 1.5 Degrees Celsius Compatibility
Background
COP 28 produced one of the most important decisions regarding the first Global Stocktake (GST-1), which states that the policies and actions carried out by countries in the world are still unable to hold back the increase in average global temperature by 1.5 degrees Celsius – in line with the Paris Agreement. According to the GST-1 report, if every country implements all of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the earth’s temperature will collectively reach 2.1 – 2.8oC (UNFCCC, 2023). In line with this momentum, global countries, including Indonesia, are required to submit NDCs in early 2025 to map out emission reduction plans until 2035 (COP21, Dec.1/CP.21). The Government of Indonesia, through the National Focal Point; Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF), has announced that Indonesia will submit the Second NDC (SNDC) 2031-2035 document in 2024 as a more ambitious GHG emission reduction commitment (MoEF, 2024).
Referring to the public consultation on the preparation of the SNDC, it was stated that the document was prepared referring to the CBDR-RC principle or the principle of equal responsibility but adjusted to the capabilities of each country, and Indonesia’s SNDC will be aligned with the 1.5oC scenario of the Paris Agreement (MoEF, 2024). However, a recent study by Climate Action Tracker assessed that the announced climate target scenario is not yet suitable to put Indonesia on a 1.5°C trajectory, in line with the Paris Agreement commitments (CAT, 2024).
Differences in the assessment of emission reduction targets between entities occur due to the bottom-up approach adopted by world countries in the Paris Agreement, where each country determines its own voluntary emission reduction contribution based on considerations of conditions, capabilities, andresponsibilities in the form of NDC documents (UNFCCC, 2015). Then, although the IPCC Assessment Report states how much carbon budget is still possible to keep the earth’s temperature below 1.5oC, through a review of technical criteria (calculation of emissions and earth’s carrying capacity), as well as non-technical criteria (policy and social considerations), the figure is global and collective, not divided to the national level (IPCC, 2023).
Thus, while the CBDR-RC principle provides a basis for equity in climate action between countries, particularly in relation to historical emissions and resource capability and availability, there is no methodology or mechanism that determines emission reduction targets for individual countries. Based on the facts mentioned, determining the number or percentage of regional emission reductions is still a dynamic process influenced by various factors, including ongoing discussions and negotiations.
Considering this, the Institute for Essential Services Reform intends to hold a seminar on “Indonesia’s carbon budget ” with the government, academicians, think tanks, civil society groups, and the wider community. Thus, an understanding can be built about how much Indonesia’s contribution is considered fair in the global effort to keep the earth’s temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Objectives
To build a common understanding of the maximum and minimum amount of Indonesia’s carbon emissions until 2030 that must be achieved, as Indonesia’s contribution to global emission reduction efforts in line with the Paris Agreement.
Speakers
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Arief Rosadi - Climate and Energy Diplomacy Program Manager IESR
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Delima Ramadhani - Koordinator Proyek Climate Policy IESR
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Agus Sari - Landscape Indonesia*
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Retno Gumilang - Pusat Penelitian Kebijakan Keenergian Institut Teknologi Bandung*
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Jamie Wong - NewClimate Institute*
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Speaker to be confirm mark *
