Draft CIPP Targets 44 Percent Renewable Energy Mix by 2030

Jakarta, November 2, 2023 – The government has released the draft of the Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) in the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) for public consultation on Wednesday (1/11/2023). 

The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) has acknowledged some changes in the CIPP document, particularly the significant increase in the renewable energy mix target to around 44% by 2030, up from 34% in the JETP joint statement last year. However, the CIPP includes establishing a net zero emissions (NZE) target in the electricity sector by 2050. This does not align with the Paris Agreement, which calls for phasing out fossil generation by 2040.

Furthermore, the emission reduction target was focused solely on power plant emissions within the PLN grid, rather than addressing emissions from the overall power sector, to 250 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2030. This figure does not include the emission reduction target from captive power. If combined, the total peak emission target is much higher than projected during the JETP negotiation last year. Furthermore, the previous draft had a plan to end the operation of coal-fired power plants with a total capacity of 5 GW, but it was removed due to unclear funding sources from the IPG.

IESR assesses that eliminating the plan of early retirement of coal power plants will make it difficult for Indonesia to achieve its net-zero target in 2050 and increase the renewable energy mix after 2030. In the current JETP scenario, emission reductions are achieved by reducing the utilization of coal power plants. Therefore, to achieve the new target of 44% renewable energy mix in 2030, there should be an increase in the flexibility of PLN’s coal power plant operations, and a review of private coal power plant contracts, as well as regulatory support for accelerating the development of renewable energy in Indonesia. The renewable energy development plan, which gives a large portion to geothermal power plant (PLTP) and hydropower (PLTA) and adjusts PLN’s priorities, can pose a risk in achieving this target, considering the development period of geothermal power plant (PLTP) projects, which takes 8 to 12 years and hydropower, which can take 6 to 10 years.

“The elimination of the plan to early retire the operation of 5 GW of coal-fired power plants before 2030 due to the lack of funding support is regrettable. This makes Indonesia’s JETP even further away from the Paris Agreement target. Based on the results of the IESR study, to achieve the previous peak emission target of 290 million tons of carbon dioxide, it is necessary to end 8.6 GW of coal-fired power plants in PLN’s electricity network by 2030. For this reason, it is necessary to conduct further dialog with IPG to explore blended finance with a matching fund scheme where funding for early retirement of CFPP comes from additional funds above IPG’s commitment and is equalized with funds from State Budget and other sources,” explained Executive Director of IESR, Fabby Tumiwa.

IESR also highlighted the CIPP document that has not considered the termination of captive CFPP operations operated by utility companies outside PLN.

“The challenges of captive power plants vary depending on the industry they supply. However, there is already a basis for Presidential Regulation 112/2022, which requires a 35% reduction in emissions and an end of operations by 2050. Therefore, emission reduction strategies and early termination of operations for captive power plants and other business areas need to be reviewed immediately,” said Deon Arinaldo, Program Manager of Energy Transformation, IESR.

Policy reforms and increased commitment from policymakers and stakeholders are crucial in implementing CIPP, which aims for a 44% renewable energy mix by 2030. Indonesia’s renewable energy capacity of 12.6 GW needs to be increased by 62 GW to reach around 75 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2030.

“The procurement process of existing renewable energy plants is still constrained in several ways. Often, this is due to project preparation, including grid connectivity studies, land acquisition, and the completion of relevant permits before the auction process. In Indonesia, this is still a burden on developers, making renewable investment prospects accessible only to certain ‘players’. Policy reforms that emphasize efficiency and ease in the renewable energy plant procurement process are necessary if the capacity expansion target is to be achieved,” said Raditya Wiranegara, Senior Analyst IESR.

Emission reduction efforts listed in this CIPP document also need to emphasize justice aspects by including community participation. Based on IESR’s various studies on mitigating the impact of energy transition in coal-producing areas, the government needs to increase the capacity of national and local government institutions in implementing energy transition and diversifying the economy to a more sustainable economy.

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