Launch of Indonesia’s Climate Action Tracker Assessment Report and Climate Transparency Implementation Checkup

“State of Indonesia’s Climate Policy 2023: Expectations for Increased Ambition and Strengthened Implementation to Achieve the Paris Agreement Targets by 2030”

Replay Event

Background

The year 2023 was recorded as one of the hottest years on record, with global temperatures rising by 1.4 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era. In the first global stocktake carried out during the COP-28 Dubai event, the United Arab Emirates also stated that policies and actions taken by countries in the world are still unable to reduce the rate of increase in emissions in line with the Paris Agreement targets. The Global Stocktake results show that based on the current accumulation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), there are still around 20.3–23.9 GtCOe2 emissions that need to be reduced to prevent a temperature rise above 1.5C by 2030. Thus, more ambitious climate policies and actions at the national level play an important role in the global effort to achieve the Paris Agreement targets.

In the context of climate policy in Indonesia, data from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) as of December 2023 shows that Indonesia still needs to reduce around 800 MtCOe2 in 2030 emissions to align its emission reduction target with the Paris Agreement (CAT, 2023). The operationalization of new coal power plants as well as the quantification of emissions from off-grid generation caused Indonesia’s emissions to rise by around 21% in 2022 (CAT, 2023). This results in Indonesia’s emissions being projected to increase by around 300 MtCO2 by 2030. Based on CAT’s assessment, Indonesia needs to increase the percentage of the renewable energy mix by around 55%–80% by 2030. Therefore, Indonesia needs to re-evaluate the climate targets contained in its NDC and also improve coordination between sectors in order to accelerate the achievement of the Paris Agreement targets.

Indonesia will experience a change of government in 2024. With this change, there is a possibility that the policy direction of the new government will be different from the previous government. It is hoped that the new government will be able to formulate a more ambitious and comprehensive climate policy umbrella so that it can support the achievement of the Paris Agreement targets and remain in line with the country’s development plan. Publication of Climate Action Tracker Country Assessment: Indonesia and Climate Transparency Implementation Check The report is expected to be a reference for recommendations for policymakers in order to harmonize climate policies at the national level and also commitments at the global level. In addition, the dissemination of these two reports is also expected to open a discussion space for the public to provide feedback and recommendations on climate policy in Indonesia.

Objective 

  1. Dissemination of the Climate Action Tracker report: Indonesia Climate Action Status 2023 to stakeholders and the general public;
  2. Facilitate discussions on the implementation of climate policies in the electricity, financing, and AFOLU sectors;
  3. Become a cross-sector discussion space for the government as a policy maker, civil society organizations, academics, and the general public in order to realize climate policy and energy transition in Indonesia in line with the Paris Agreement targets;
  4. A means of gathering opinions and inputs from various levels of society and sectors, which can be used as recommendations for climate and energy transition policies in Indonesia.

Presentation

 

Status of Indonesia’s Climate Action and Policy 2023- Delima Ramadhani

Status-Aksi-dan-Kebijakan-Iklim-Indonesia-2023-Delima-Ramadhani

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Renewable Energy Development in Indonesia Power Sector – Akbar Bagaskara

Renewable-Energy-Development-in-Indonesia-Power-Sector-Akbar-Bagaskara

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Increasing AFOLU Sector Climate Ambition Towards Net Sink 2030 – Yosi Amelia

Peningkatan-Ambisi-Iklim-Sektor-AFOLU-Menuju-Net-Sink-2030-Yosi-Amelia

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Landscape of Climate-Aligned Investment in Indonesia Financial Sector – Luthfyana Larasati

Landscape-of-Climate-Aligned-Investment-in-Indonesia-Financial-Sector-Luthfyana-Larasati

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Bridging the Cross-Sectoral Gap in Pursuing More Ambitious Climate Targets in Indonesia

Background

In 2022, Indonesia increased its GHG emission reduction target from 29% using its own resources to 31.89%, and from 41% to 43.80% with international assistance. The government considers this target more ambitious than before. Several policies have been implemented to achieve this, including the FOLU Net Sink 2030, the B40 policy, increased actions in the waste sector, heightened targets in the agricultural and industrial sectors, Presidential Regulation 18/2021 concerning the Value of Carbon Economy, and Presidential Regulation 112/2022 concerning the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for Electricity Supply. These policies serve as the foundation for the increased target.

According to the Climate Action Tracker analysis (2022), Indonesia has taken positive steps towards reducing emissions, such as the plan to phase out coal-fired power plants by 2050. The role of international assistance is crucial in facilitating Indonesia’s coal phase-out. However, CAT assesses Indonesia’s climate targets and policies as ‘highly insufficient’, indicating that the country’s current climate policies and commitments do not align with limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C and will result in a temperature increase worldwide.

Indonesia is not alone, and the trend of increasing GHG emissions will continue alongside the rise in energy consumption. According to the ASEAN Center for Energy, GHG emissions from the energy sector in ASEAN are projected to reach 4,171 Mt CO2-eq by 2040. Through a joint statement, ASEAN committed to communicating their respective NDCs that reflect ambitions aligned with UNFCCC decisions and the Paris Agreement. Among the six ASEAN countries analyzed by CAT (Climate Action Tracker, 2022), 3 (Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam) have a ‘critically insufficient’ climate action status. This rating indicates that these countries’ climate commitments and policies are minimal and not consistent with the Paris Agreement.

In its leadership of ASEAN in 2023, Indonesia has prioritized green infrastructure development, SDGs implementation, and energy security. From the outcome of the 42nd ASEAN Summit held on May 10-11, 2023, it appears that there is no specific statement on the climate action agenda in ASEAN. Therefore, with this momentum of ASEAN leadership, it is essential for Indonesia to reaffirm its climate commitments aligned with the Paris Agreement and push for more ambitious climate targets and emission reductions at the Southeast Asian regional level.

IESR intends to assess the status of policies and the potential for increasing climate ambition in line with the below 1.5°C target through a joint seminar involving various policymakers, academicians, and civil society organizations. This meeting aims to facilitate an exchange of information and discussions to harmonize the perspectives of policymakers from sectors that impact climate change with those of practitioners and activists working on climate issues. The goal is to emphasize the need to elevate Indonesia’s climate ambition and its translation within ASEAN.

Furthermore, the seminar is expected to foster synergy among all stakeholders to ensure Indonesia successfully achieves its climate targets in accordance with the Paris Agreement. The seminar will also delve into Indonesia’s opportunities and challenges in meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate target of limiting temperature rise to below 1.5°C. Additionally, the outcomes of these discussions can serve as input and recommendations for the climate and energy transition agenda, particularly for Indonesia’s leadership in ASEAN 2023.

Objectives

  1. Facilitate the exchange of information, practitioner and expert perspectives, and civil society organization (CSO) expectations regarding the conditions, potential, and challenges for achieving a more ambitious climate target in alignment with the 1.5°C goal.
  2. Provide insights to guide Indonesia’s leadership in the climate agenda and energy transition during its chairmanship of ASEAN, influencing various sectors relevant to these matters.

A Moment of Reflection on Ourselves and Our Climate Targets

Jakarta, 11 May 2023 – This year’s Earth Day is quite a unique one as it falls on the day of Eid ul-Fitr, an Islamic celebration that marks the end of the month-long fasting of Ramadhan. Theologically, those who are successful in withholding all kinds of worldly desires during the holy month would see their entire past sins being wiped out clean. Despite eating less, food waste in Indonesia is on the contrary increasing almost 20% higher during Ramadhan relative to other months, as hinted by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF). In terms of GHG emissions, Food Loss and Waste (FLW) in 2000 – 2019 accounted for 1,702.9 million tons  of CO2 (MtCO2) or 7.29% per year of GHG emissions in Indonesia, according to a 2021’s report organized by Bappenas. Apart from that, electricity consumption is also increasing by 5% according to PLN, mainly driven by industrial activities and household electricity consumption. With almost 70% of Indonesia’s electricity still supplied by coal-fired power plants, such an increase would surely increase GHG emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. Sadly, all of these contradict the spirit of Eid ul-Fitr itself as we are not entirely cleansed per se, solely due to our activities during the holy month having instead contributed to the GHG emissions.

The question then, why the concern about GHG emissions?

The Earth’s climate has significantly shifted compared to its pre-industrial state. According to IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, global temperature has been recorded to be 1.09 °C higher in 2011 – 2020 than in 1850 – 1900. The figure indicates that heat being trapped within the sphere has exceeded what is required to keep the Earth’s climate warm enough for its inhabitants. Large concentrations of GHG emissions, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, in the atmosphere have been traced to be higher than during prehistoric times, ranging between 800,000 to 2,000,000 years ago, as stipulated in the report. Human-induced GHG emissions have been thought with absolute certainty to cause the continuous emissions increase, inching closer to more prevalent extreme weather events.

So, what sort of human activities of prominent influence on the climate? The report further elaborates the GHG-emitting human activities and their contributions to global GHG emissions. 79% of global GHG emissions in 2019 came from the energy, industry, and building sectors, whilst the remaining came from agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU). The former has been contributing to the large generation of carbon dioxide, particularly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes (CO2-FFI). Such conditions come as no surprise as most of the energy that we consume is still being sourced from fossil fuels. This is especially true for developing countries, whereby fossil fuels are perceived to be much cheaper than clean alternatives. For these countries, there is a balance that needs to be struck between reducing their GHG emissions and maintaining economic growth.

 Has Indonesia exerted enough effort in its commitment towards climate change?

Just last year, Indonesia submitted its enhanced NDC (ENDC) to the UNFCCC to demonstrate its continued commitment to the climate change issue. Within the new document, the bar has been slightly increased. The country pledged to reduce its GHG emissions reduction by 31.2% (unconditional) and 43.2% (conditional) relative to Business-as-Usual (BAU) in 2030. Despite its intention to meet Decision 1/CMA.3 line 29 of the Glasgow Pact, the enhanced target is still far from being aligned with the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Aligned with that, Climate Action Tracker has recently rated the country’s ENDC to be highly insufficient. It argued that the targets can be met with existing policy. With conceivable targets, the government does not require further efforts. The analysis further suggested that the electricity sector should be seeing a significant drop in emissions to be aligned with the 1.5°C pathways. This means phasing out unabated coal-fired power plants’ capacity down to 10% in 2030 and to be completely phased out in 2040. Presidential Regulation 112/2022 should have provided a legal basis for relevant stakeholders to take necessary actions. JETP’s joint commitment that would see 20 billion USD being mobilized by the International Partners Group (IPG) countries should further jumpstart the energy transition in Indonesia. In his latest speech during the Hannover Messe, President Jokowi further hinted that Indonesia will phase out its entire coal fleet by 2050.

Through the moment of Earth Day and Eid ul-Fitr, let’s try to reflect on whether we have done enough to help prevent further worsening of climate change. Have we cleansed ourselves in the entirety? Have our lifestyles reflected what we have been advocating so far?

Photo by Asia Chang on Unsplash

The Increase of Emission Reduction Targets in Indonesia’s NDC is Still a Long Way to Mitigating a Climate Crisis

Jakarta, 6 December 2022- Indonesia has submitted Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (ENDCs) documents by increasing the target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by only around 2%. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which is a member of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of three think tanks that conducts monitoring and assessment of climate change policies in 39 countries and the European Union, found that the slight increase in Indonesia’s NDC target was still insufficient to prevent a global temperature rise of 1.5°C.

In Enhanced NDC, the target of reducing emissions by own efforts (unconditional) increases from 29% in the Updated NDC document to 31.89% in 2030, and with international assistance (conditional) increases from 41% to 43.2%. IESR and CAT view that Indonesia should be able to set even more ambitious targets, especially after the issuance of Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No 112 of 2022 concerning the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity.

“Indonesia is still hesitant to set ambitious emission reduction targets and play in the safe zone. The reduction target set in the Enhanced NDC (E-NDC) is too easy to achieve because the reference is the business-as-usual emission increase projection in 2030. The emission reduction target should be based on the absolute emission level based on a certain year. To be in line with the 1.5°C ambition, emissions from the energy sector in 2030 must be equivalent to the level of emissions from the energy sector in 2010,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, at the launch of the results of the CAT assessment of Indonesia’s climate action and policies.

To achieve significant emission reductions, Indonesia needs to carry out more ambitious mitigation in the sectors with dominant emitters, such as the energy sector, and the forest and land sector. Having abundant renewable energy potential, even up to more than 7 TW, Indonesia can utilize it as a source of energy with minimal emissions.

However, until 2021, the renewable energy mix in the energy system in Indonesia is still 11.5%. IESR views that with several developments in international support and the government’s commitment to early retirement coal power plants will provide free space for the development of renewable energy so that it can achieve the target of 23% renewable energy in 2025, even reaching 40% in 2030. In the Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia Energy System study (2021), IESR concludes that by 2050, 100% utilization of renewable energy in Indonesia’s energy system is technically and economically feasible.

“Indonesia’s climate action status can be enhanced by ensuring that climate policies in this decade are implemented to fulfil a fair contribution based on global efforts (fair share). The NDC target with international assistance must also be consistent, at least with the optimal path with the lowest cost for the ambition of 1.5°C (global least cost pathways),” explained Delima Ramadhani, Coordinator of Climate Action Tracker, IESR.

According to her, the dominance of coal-fired power plants, which are currently around 61% of Indonesia’s energy system, needs to be significantly reduced to only 10% of coal-fired power plants that do not use carbon capture and storage technology (unabated coal-fired power plan) in 2030 and terminate their operations gradually until stop completely by 2040. For that, Indonesia must increase its climate commitments, and international assistance plays a major role in the implementation of the coal phase-out per the Paris Agreement.

Several funding mechanisms for ending coal operations have also been discussed and agreed upon by Indonesia, such as the Energy Transition Mechanism scheme and the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP). IESR considers that, although it is still not aligned with the 1.5°C targets, the JETP agreement is a step forward in the energy transition in Indonesia. The funding commitment of USD 20 billion is not enough to achieve decarbonization of the energy sector which requires at least a total investment of USD 135 billion by 2030.

“The portion of grants in JETP funding needs to be enlarged, which can be used to accelerate the strengthening of the energy transition ecosystem and project preparation. In addition, the next step after JETP has been agreed upon is the preparation of an investment plan that is carried out transparently and mainstreams the principles of justice in the energy transition by involving the participation of the community, local government and affected groups,” concluded Fabby.

Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis initiative that tracks countries’ climate actions and measures them against the globally agreed Paris Agreement goal of holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT has provided an independent analysis of around 40 countries since 2009. CAT members include Climate Analytics, the New Climate Institute, and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which joined as partners in 2022.

 

The Increase of Emission Reduction Targets in Indonesia’s NDC is Still a Long Way to Mitigating a Climate Crisis

Jakarta, 6 December 2022- Indonesia has submitted Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (ENDCs) documents by increasing the target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by only around 2%. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which is a member of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of three think tanks that conducts monitoring and assessment of climate change policies in 39 countries and the European Union, found that the slight increase in Indonesia’s NDC target was still insufficient to prevent a global temperature rise of 1.5°C.

In Enhanced NDC, the target of reducing emissions by own efforts (unconditional) increases from 29% in the Updated NDC document to 31.89% in 2030, and with international assistance (conditional) increases from 41% to 43.2%. IESR and CAT view that Indonesia should be able to set even more ambitious targets, especially after the issuance of Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No 112 of 2022 concerning the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity.

“Indonesia is still hesitant to set ambitious emission reduction targets and play in the safe zone. The reduction target set in the Enhanced NDC (E-NDC) is too easy to achieve because the reference is the business-as-usual emission increase projection in 2030. The emission reduction target should be based on the absolute emission level based on a certain year. To be in line with the 1.5°C ambition, emissions from the energy sector in 2030 must be equivalent to the level of emissions from the energy sector in 2010,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, at the launch of the results of the CAT assessment of Indonesia’s climate action and policies.

To achieve significant emission reductions, Indonesia needs to carry out more ambitious mitigation in the sectors with dominant emitters, such as the energy sector, and the forest and land sector. Having abundant renewable energy potential, even up to more than 7 TW, Indonesia can utilize it as a source of energy with minimal emissions.

However, until 2021, the renewable energy mix in the energy system in Indonesia is still 11.5%. IESR views that several developments in international support and the government’s commitment to early retirement coal power plants will provide free space for the development of renewable energy so that it can achieve the target of 23% renewable energy in 2025, even reaching 40% in 2030. In the Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia Energy System study (2021), IESR concludes that by 2050, 100% utilization of renewable energy in Indonesia’s energy system is technically and economically feasible.

“Indonesia’s climate action status can be enhanced by ensuring that climate policies in this decade are implemented to fulfil a fair contribution based on global efforts (fair share). The NDC target with international assistance must also be consistent, at least with the optimal path with the lowest cost for the ambition of 1.5°C (global least cost pathways),” explained Delima Ramadhani, Coordinator of Climate Action Tracker, IESR.

According to her, the dominance of coal-fired power plants, which are currently around 61% of Indonesia’s energy system, needs to be significantly reduced to only 10% of coal-fired power plants that do not use carbon capture and storage technology (unabated coal-fired power plan) in 2030 and terminate their operations gradually until stop completely by 2040. For that, Indonesia must increase its climate commitments, and international assistance plays a major role in the implementation of the coal phase-out per the Paris Agreement.

Several funding mechanisms for ending coal operations have also been discussed and agreed upon by Indonesia, such as the Energy Transition Mechanism scheme and the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP). IESR considers that, although it is still not aligned with the 1.5°C targets, the JETP agreement is a step forward in the energy transition in Indonesia. The funding commitment of USD 20 billion is not enough to achieve decarbonization of the energy sector which requires at least a total investment of USD 135 billion by 2030.

“The portion of grants in JETP funding needs to be enlarged, which can be used to accelerate the strengthening of the energy transition ecosystem and project preparation. In addition, the next step after JETP has been agreed upon is the preparation of an investment plan that is carried out transparently and mainstreams the principles of justice in the energy transition by involving the participation of the community, local government and affected groups,” concluded Fabby.

Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis initiative that tracks countries’ climate actions and measures them against the globally agreed Paris Agreement goal of holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT has provided an independent analysis of around 40 countries since 2009. CAT members include Climate Analytics, the New Climate Institute, and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which joined as partners in 2022.

 

Report Launching and Discussion: Climate Action Tracker (CAT) – Indonesia Assessment 2022

Background

Under the Paris Agreement, the government has committed to limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and working towards limiting it to 1.5°C. Achieving this goal would require halving global emissions by 2030, achieving zero CO2 emissions by 2050, and all greenhouse gases by around 2070, with negative emissions thereafter.

Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis initiative that tracks a country’s climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement goal of holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT has been providing this independent analysis to policymakers since 2009.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) tracks countries’ progress towards achieving their self-imposed climate targets under the Paris Agreement and measures the combined impact of these commitments and policies on global temperature levels by the end of the century.

In general, CAT calculates and evaluates climate change mitigation targets, policies and actions. The project also combines the actions of individual countries at the global level and determines the likelihood of temperature rise during the 21st century using the MAGICC climate model. CAT further developed the sectoral analysis to illustrate the pathways needed to meet global temperature goals.

This year CAT is collaborating with the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) to analyze several countries, one of which evaluates Indonesia’s progress (actions and policies) in achieving climate targets according to the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise below 2°C and strive to keep global temperature rise of 1.5°C. This study analyzes national actions such as 1) the impact of climate policies and actions on emissions; policies that have been implemented/established by governments and how (likely) this will affect national emissions over the period up to 2030, and beyond. 2) the impact of the pledge, target, and NDC on national emissions during the period up to 2030, and thereafter and 3) whether so far Indonesia has exercised its fair share in global efforts to limit global climate warming according to the Paris Agreement and whether its plans and mitigation efforts have been carried out in line with the global least cost pathways.

The results of the latest study were published in October 2022 on the website https://climateactiontracker.org. Therefore, to expand the usefulness and dissemination of information from the results of this research to policymakers, stakeholders and the wider community, we will publish the CAT: Indonesia Assessment 2022 report in Jakarta, Indonesia on 6 December 2022.

Objective

The launch event and discussion of the Climate Action Tracker: Indonesia Assessment 2022 was held with the aim of:

  1. Inform and introduce the Climate Action Tracker: Indonesia assessment report, which analyzes Indonesia’s efforts to achieve climate targets according to the Paris Agreement.
  2. Increase public understanding of Indonesia’s status and progress in achieving climate change targets
  3. Facilitate discussions between policymakers, academics, and civil society regarding climate change issues.