A Moment of Reflection on Ourselves and Our Climate Targets

Jakarta, 11 May 2023 – This year’s Earth Day is quite a unique one as it falls on the day of Eid ul-Fitr, an Islamic celebration that marks the end of the month-long fasting of Ramadhan. Theologically, those who are successful in withholding all kinds of worldly desires during the holy month would see their entire past sins being wiped out clean. Despite eating less, food waste in Indonesia is on the contrary increasing almost 20% higher during Ramadhan relative to other months, as hinted by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (MoEF). In terms of GHG emissions, Food Loss and Waste (FLW) in 2000 – 2019 accounted for 1,702.9 million tons  of CO2 (MtCO2) or 7.29% per year of GHG emissions in Indonesia, according to a 2021’s report organized by Bappenas. Apart from that, electricity consumption is also increasing by 5% according to PLN, mainly driven by industrial activities and household electricity consumption. With almost 70% of Indonesia’s electricity still supplied by coal-fired power plants, such an increase would surely increase GHG emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. Sadly, all of these contradict the spirit of Eid ul-Fitr itself as we are not entirely cleansed per se, solely due to our activities during the holy month having instead contributed to the GHG emissions.

The question then, why the concern about GHG emissions?

The Earth’s climate has significantly shifted compared to its pre-industrial state. According to IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, global temperature has been recorded to be 1.09 °C higher in 2011 – 2020 than in 1850 – 1900. The figure indicates that heat being trapped within the sphere has exceeded what is required to keep the Earth’s climate warm enough for its inhabitants. Large concentrations of GHG emissions, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, in the atmosphere have been traced to be higher than during prehistoric times, ranging between 800,000 to 2,000,000 years ago, as stipulated in the report. Human-induced GHG emissions have been thought with absolute certainty to cause the continuous emissions increase, inching closer to more prevalent extreme weather events.

So, what sort of human activities of prominent influence on the climate? The report further elaborates the GHG-emitting human activities and their contributions to global GHG emissions. 79% of global GHG emissions in 2019 came from the energy, industry, and building sectors, whilst the remaining came from agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU). The former has been contributing to the large generation of carbon dioxide, particularly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes (CO2-FFI). Such conditions come as no surprise as most of the energy that we consume is still being sourced from fossil fuels. This is especially true for developing countries, whereby fossil fuels are perceived to be much cheaper than clean alternatives. For these countries, there is a balance that needs to be struck between reducing their GHG emissions and maintaining economic growth.

 Has Indonesia exerted enough effort in its commitment towards climate change?

Just last year, Indonesia submitted its enhanced NDC (ENDC) to the UNFCCC to demonstrate its continued commitment to the climate change issue. Within the new document, the bar has been slightly increased. The country pledged to reduce its GHG emissions reduction by 31.2% (unconditional) and 43.2% (conditional) relative to Business-as-Usual (BAU) in 2030. Despite its intention to meet Decision 1/CMA.3 line 29 of the Glasgow Pact, the enhanced target is still far from being aligned with the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Aligned with that, Climate Action Tracker has recently rated the country’s ENDC to be highly insufficient. It argued that the targets can be met with existing policy. With conceivable targets, the government does not require further efforts. The analysis further suggested that the electricity sector should be seeing a significant drop in emissions to be aligned with the 1.5°C pathways. This means phasing out unabated coal-fired power plants’ capacity down to 10% in 2030 and to be completely phased out in 2040. Presidential Regulation 112/2022 should have provided a legal basis for relevant stakeholders to take necessary actions. JETP’s joint commitment that would see 20 billion USD being mobilized by the International Partners Group (IPG) countries should further jumpstart the energy transition in Indonesia. In his latest speech during the Hannover Messe, President Jokowi further hinted that Indonesia will phase out its entire coal fleet by 2050.

Through the moment of Earth Day and Eid ul-Fitr, let’s try to reflect on whether we have done enough to help prevent further worsening of climate change. Have we cleansed ourselves in the entirety? Have our lifestyles reflected what we have been advocating so far?

Photo by Asia Chang on Unsplash

The Increase of Emission Reduction Targets in Indonesia’s NDC is Still a Long Way to Mitigating a Climate Crisis

Jakarta, 6 December 2022- Indonesia has submitted Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (ENDCs) documents by increasing the target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by only around 2%. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which is a member of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of three think tanks that conducts monitoring and assessment of climate change policies in 39 countries and the European Union, found that the slight increase in Indonesia’s NDC target was still insufficient to prevent a global temperature rise of 1.5°C.

In Enhanced NDC, the target of reducing emissions by own efforts (unconditional) increases from 29% in the Updated NDC document to 31.89% in 2030, and with international assistance (conditional) increases from 41% to 43.2%. IESR and CAT view that Indonesia should be able to set even more ambitious targets, especially after the issuance of Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No 112 of 2022 concerning the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity.

“Indonesia is still hesitant to set ambitious emission reduction targets and play in the safe zone. The reduction target set in the Enhanced NDC (E-NDC) is too easy to achieve because the reference is the business-as-usual emission increase projection in 2030. The emission reduction target should be based on the absolute emission level based on a certain year. To be in line with the 1.5°C ambition, emissions from the energy sector in 2030 must be equivalent to the level of emissions from the energy sector in 2010,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, at the launch of the results of the CAT assessment of Indonesia’s climate action and policies.

To achieve significant emission reductions, Indonesia needs to carry out more ambitious mitigation in the sectors with dominant emitters, such as the energy sector, and the forest and land sector. Having abundant renewable energy potential, even up to more than 7 TW, Indonesia can utilize it as a source of energy with minimal emissions.

However, until 2021, the renewable energy mix in the energy system in Indonesia is still 11.5%. IESR views that with several developments in international support and the government’s commitment to early retirement coal power plants will provide free space for the development of renewable energy so that it can achieve the target of 23% renewable energy in 2025, even reaching 40% in 2030. In the Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia Energy System study (2021), IESR concludes that by 2050, 100% utilization of renewable energy in Indonesia’s energy system is technically and economically feasible.

“Indonesia’s climate action status can be enhanced by ensuring that climate policies in this decade are implemented to fulfil a fair contribution based on global efforts (fair share). The NDC target with international assistance must also be consistent, at least with the optimal path with the lowest cost for the ambition of 1.5°C (global least cost pathways),” explained Delima Ramadhani, Coordinator of Climate Action Tracker, IESR.

According to her, the dominance of coal-fired power plants, which are currently around 61% of Indonesia’s energy system, needs to be significantly reduced to only 10% of coal-fired power plants that do not use carbon capture and storage technology (unabated coal-fired power plan) in 2030 and terminate their operations gradually until stop completely by 2040. For that, Indonesia must increase its climate commitments, and international assistance plays a major role in the implementation of the coal phase-out per the Paris Agreement.

Several funding mechanisms for ending coal operations have also been discussed and agreed upon by Indonesia, such as the Energy Transition Mechanism scheme and the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP). IESR considers that, although it is still not aligned with the 1.5°C targets, the JETP agreement is a step forward in the energy transition in Indonesia. The funding commitment of USD 20 billion is not enough to achieve decarbonization of the energy sector which requires at least a total investment of USD 135 billion by 2030.

“The portion of grants in JETP funding needs to be enlarged, which can be used to accelerate the strengthening of the energy transition ecosystem and project preparation. In addition, the next step after JETP has been agreed upon is the preparation of an investment plan that is carried out transparently and mainstreams the principles of justice in the energy transition by involving the participation of the community, local government and affected groups,” concluded Fabby.

Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis initiative that tracks countries’ climate actions and measures them against the globally agreed Paris Agreement goal of holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT has provided an independent analysis of around 40 countries since 2009. CAT members include Climate Analytics, the New Climate Institute, and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which joined as partners in 2022.

 

The Increase of Emission Reduction Targets in Indonesia’s NDC is Still a Long Way to Mitigating a Climate Crisis

Jakarta, 6 December 2022- Indonesia has submitted Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (ENDCs) documents by increasing the target of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by only around 2%. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which is a member of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), a consortium of three think tanks that conducts monitoring and assessment of climate change policies in 39 countries and the European Union, found that the slight increase in Indonesia’s NDC target was still insufficient to prevent a global temperature rise of 1.5°C.

In Enhanced NDC, the target of reducing emissions by own efforts (unconditional) increases from 29% in the Updated NDC document to 31.89% in 2030, and with international assistance (conditional) increases from 41% to 43.2%. IESR and CAT view that Indonesia should be able to set even more ambitious targets, especially after the issuance of Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No 112 of 2022 concerning the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Provision of Electricity.

“Indonesia is still hesitant to set ambitious emission reduction targets and play in the safe zone. The reduction target set in the Enhanced NDC (E-NDC) is too easy to achieve because the reference is the business-as-usual emission increase projection in 2030. The emission reduction target should be based on the absolute emission level based on a certain year. To be in line with the 1.5°C ambition, emissions from the energy sector in 2030 must be equivalent to the level of emissions from the energy sector in 2010,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR, at the launch of the results of the CAT assessment of Indonesia’s climate action and policies.

To achieve significant emission reductions, Indonesia needs to carry out more ambitious mitigation in the sectors with dominant emitters, such as the energy sector, and the forest and land sector. Having abundant renewable energy potential, even up to more than 7 TW, Indonesia can utilize it as a source of energy with minimal emissions.

However, until 2021, the renewable energy mix in the energy system in Indonesia is still 11.5%. IESR views that several developments in international support and the government’s commitment to early retirement coal power plants will provide free space for the development of renewable energy so that it can achieve the target of 23% renewable energy in 2025, even reaching 40% in 2030. In the Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia Energy System study (2021), IESR concludes that by 2050, 100% utilization of renewable energy in Indonesia’s energy system is technically and economically feasible.

“Indonesia’s climate action status can be enhanced by ensuring that climate policies in this decade are implemented to fulfil a fair contribution based on global efforts (fair share). The NDC target with international assistance must also be consistent, at least with the optimal path with the lowest cost for the ambition of 1.5°C (global least cost pathways),” explained Delima Ramadhani, Coordinator of Climate Action Tracker, IESR.

According to her, the dominance of coal-fired power plants, which are currently around 61% of Indonesia’s energy system, needs to be significantly reduced to only 10% of coal-fired power plants that do not use carbon capture and storage technology (unabated coal-fired power plan) in 2030 and terminate their operations gradually until stop completely by 2040. For that, Indonesia must increase its climate commitments, and international assistance plays a major role in the implementation of the coal phase-out per the Paris Agreement.

Several funding mechanisms for ending coal operations have also been discussed and agreed upon by Indonesia, such as the Energy Transition Mechanism scheme and the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP). IESR considers that, although it is still not aligned with the 1.5°C targets, the JETP agreement is a step forward in the energy transition in Indonesia. The funding commitment of USD 20 billion is not enough to achieve decarbonization of the energy sector which requires at least a total investment of USD 135 billion by 2030.

“The portion of grants in JETP funding needs to be enlarged, which can be used to accelerate the strengthening of the energy transition ecosystem and project preparation. In addition, the next step after JETP has been agreed upon is the preparation of an investment plan that is carried out transparently and mainstreams the principles of justice in the energy transition by involving the participation of the community, local government and affected groups,” concluded Fabby.

Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis initiative that tracks countries’ climate actions and measures them against the globally agreed Paris Agreement goal of holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT has provided an independent analysis of around 40 countries since 2009. CAT members include Climate Analytics, the New Climate Institute, and the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), which joined as partners in 2022.

 

Report Launching and Discussion: Climate Action Tracker (CAT) – Indonesia Assessment 2022

Background

Under the Paris Agreement, the government has committed to limiting global temperature rise to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and working towards limiting it to 1.5°C. Achieving this goal would require halving global emissions by 2030, achieving zero CO2 emissions by 2050, and all greenhouse gases by around 2070, with negative emissions thereafter.

Climate Action Tracker is an independent scientific analysis initiative that tracks a country’s climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement goal of holding warming well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT has been providing this independent analysis to policymakers since 2009.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) tracks countries’ progress towards achieving their self-imposed climate targets under the Paris Agreement and measures the combined impact of these commitments and policies on global temperature levels by the end of the century.

In general, CAT calculates and evaluates climate change mitigation targets, policies and actions. The project also combines the actions of individual countries at the global level and determines the likelihood of temperature rise during the 21st century using the MAGICC climate model. CAT further developed the sectoral analysis to illustrate the pathways needed to meet global temperature goals.

This year CAT is collaborating with the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) to analyze several countries, one of which evaluates Indonesia’s progress (actions and policies) in achieving climate targets according to the Paris Agreement to keep global temperature rise below 2°C and strive to keep global temperature rise of 1.5°C. This study analyzes national actions such as 1) the impact of climate policies and actions on emissions; policies that have been implemented/established by governments and how (likely) this will affect national emissions over the period up to 2030, and beyond. 2) the impact of the pledge, target, and NDC on national emissions during the period up to 2030, and thereafter and 3) whether so far Indonesia has exercised its fair share in global efforts to limit global climate warming according to the Paris Agreement and whether its plans and mitigation efforts have been carried out in line with the global least cost pathways.

The results of the latest study were published in October 2022 on the website https://climateactiontracker.org. Therefore, to expand the usefulness and dissemination of information from the results of this research to policymakers, stakeholders and the wider community, we will publish the CAT: Indonesia Assessment 2022 report in Jakarta, Indonesia on 6 December 2022.

Objective

The launch event and discussion of the Climate Action Tracker: Indonesia Assessment 2022 was held with the aim of:

  1. Inform and introduce the Climate Action Tracker: Indonesia assessment report, which analyzes Indonesia’s efforts to achieve climate targets according to the Paris Agreement.
  2. Increase public understanding of Indonesia’s status and progress in achieving climate change targets
  3. Facilitate discussions between policymakers, academics, and civil society regarding climate change issues.