Media Briefing: Preparing for Indonesia’s Energy Transition & Anticipating Its Implications and Launching The Indonesia Energy Transition Dialogue (IETD) 2023

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Background

Between 2021 and 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued reports from three working groups, all of which uniformly conveyed that there is already scientific evidence related to the climate crisis and its impact on the Earth. One of the key findings of the report is that greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have contributed to an increase in the Earth’s average temperature by 1.1°C since 1850-1900 and have the potential to rise beyond 1.5°C within the next 20 years. Furthermore, the report also outlines mitigation options that can be pursued and the scale of change that needs to occur, especially in this decade, to stay on track for 1.5°C.

Indonesia ratified the Paris Agreement through Law No. 16/2016. This means that Indonesia has legally committed itself to addressing the challenges of climate change by supporting global efforts to limit the increase in the average temperature to 1.5°C below the pre-industrial era average temperature. According to one of the IPCC models, to achieve this temperature limit, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 compared to GHG emission levels in 2010 and reach net zero by 2050.

As a country that has ratified the Paris Agreement, Indonesia has reaffirmed its commitment to contribute to addressing the climate crisis. Indonesia’s own GHG emission reduction target in the Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (UNDC) is 29%, which increases to 31.89% in the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (ENDC), while the target with international support in the UNDC is 41%, increasing to 43.20% in the ENDC.

A study by the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) and the University of Maryland (2022) found that 9.2 GW of coal must be phased out from the state-owned utility (PLN) grid by 2030, and all unabated coal generation must be retired by 2045 at the latest, to put Indonesia on track to achieve the Paris Agreement’s global temperature target of 1.5°C. The study also concluded that coal emissions should begin to decline before the end of the decade.

Several initiatives and measures are in place to support and facilitate the early retirement of Indonesia’s power plants. In addition to the Transition Mechanism (ETM) launched at COP-26, during the G20 Summit, Indonesia and the International Partnership Group (IPG) have also signed the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreement. This agreement aims to achieve the power sector’s peak emissions target of 290 million metric tons of CO2 (MtCO2) by 2030, attain a renewable energy mix of 34% by 2030, and make the power sector carbon-neutral by 2050.

In an effort to strengthen Indonesia’s climate action, the Government of Indonesia received a funding commitment of USD 20 billion from the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) program. The formulation of the implementation of the funding is translated into a Comprehensive Investmentand Policy Plan (CIPP), which focuses on investment areas consisting of developing transmission and distribution networks, the early retirement of coal-fired power plants, accelerating the utilization of baseload-type renewable energy, accelerating the utilization of variable-type renewable energy, and building renewable energy supply chains. The government has finalized the CIPP document and will conduct public consultations over the next few months.

The energy transition can reduce Indonesia’s exposure to similar problems in the future. A smooth and successful energy transition requires the support of all parties, including the general public. Therefore, the process of preparing for the energy transition also needs to pay attention to aspects of inclusiveness. Additionally, it is important to consider impact management and anticipate the implications of the energy transition process. This includes considerations such as the fate of CFPP workers whose operational periods are ending prematurely, the creation of new jobs (green jobs), and how Indonesia’s energy transition can support economic growth through the shift from fossil industries to low-carbon industries.

Therefore, to further discuss the readiness of the energy transition in Indonesia and the launch of the 6th Indonesia Energy Transition Dialogue (IETD), we will organize a Media Briefing. This media briefing aims to provide an overview of the process and impact of Indonesia’s energy transition and to convey the implementation plan of the IETD as a forum for fact-based discussions that support the best policy formulation in the energy sector, facilitating more ambitious climate targets.

1 www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/

2 IESR UMD, 2022, Financing Indonesia coal phase-out

Objective

  1. To inform about the JETP program’s Comprehensive Investment and Policy (CIPP) development.
  2. To discuss the socio-economic implications of the energy transition and anticipation measures in Indonesia.
  3. To announce the implementation details of the Indonesia Energy Transition Dialogue 2023 event on September 18-20, 2023.

Presentation Material

ESDM

130923-DEK-IETD-IESR-ESDM

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Faisal Basri

130923-DEK-IETD-IESR-Faisal-Basri

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CASE IESR: Indonesia Needs to Encourage Stronger Commitment from ASEAN Countries to Reducing GHG Emissions in the Region

press release

Jakarta, 15 August 2023 Holding the Chair of ASEAN in 2023 and possessing significant economic influence within the ASEAN region, Indonesia can foster a joint agreement among other ASEAN member countries to promote the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in alignment with the Paris Agreement. Additionally, Indonesia can mobilize support from other countries as several ASEAN nations aim to phase out coal-fired power plant operations incrementally before 2050. Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), conveyed this message during a media briefing titled “Measuring ASEAN’s Climate Ambition at the Helm of Indonesia’s ASEAN 2023 Chairmanship.”

According to Fabby, while Indonesia prohibits the construction of new coal-fired power plants (PLTU) for general use, allowing their construction for industrial purposes can impede the achievement of a higher renewable energy mix. He emphasized that the Indonesian government should advocate for a stronger commitment to ending the operation of coal-fired power plants throughout ASEAN countries. Furthermore, Indonesia should bolster its renewable energy expansion within ASEAN, particularly in solar energy development. Fabby encouraged discussions on an integrated supply chain to be established during the ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) scheduled for August 2023.

“We hope that during AMEM, Indonesia can propose to become a manufacturing hub for solar PV, encompassing technology from polysilicon to solar modules. Although some ASEAN countries have advanced manufacturing capabilities, they are still limited to cells and modules. Moreover, this manufacturing progress lacks integration. Indonesia, endowed with raw materials like silica sand, has the potential, as Chair of ASEAN 2023, to champion an integrated supply chain through a collective agreement,” he stated.

He added that climate threats are escalating for ASEAN nations, significantly impacting the region’s food security, energy security, and developmental progress. Without earnest endeavors to curb global emissions, climate change will compound challenges, making sustained economic growth of over 6% in the Southeast Asian region even more challenging.

Berlianto Pandapotan Hasudungan, Director of ASEAN Economic Cooperation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Indonesia, explained that transitioning to renewable energy and reducing reliance on petroleum is pivotal for Indonesia’s leadership within ASEAN amidst geopolitical, Myanmar, and climate crises.

“Alongside the advancement of electric vehicles, ASEAN is fostering energy interconnections among member countries and embarking on studies for energy interconnections within the region,” he elaborated.

Shahnaz Nur Firdausi, a Researcher on Climate and Energy at IESR, highlighted that Indonesia’s climate policies and commitments do not align with the Paris Agreement’s objective of capping temperature rise at 1.5°C. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) report underscores the insufficiency of Indonesia’s climate targets and policies. If other countries follow a similar path, global warming could exceed 2°C to 3°C.

“For this reason, Indonesia’s climate policies and actions in 2030 require substantial improvements in line with a temperature limit of 1.5°C. Indonesia should elevate the NDC target to 75% under the NDC business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, excluding land use and land use change and forestry (conditional), and 62% (unconditional). Furthermore, Indonesia’s land use and forestry emissions have accounted for nearly 50% of total emissions over the past two decades,” said Shahnaz.

In concluding remarks, Agus Tampubolon, the Project Manager of Clean, Affordable, and Secure Energy (CASE) for Southeast Asia, emphasized the significance of collaboration among ASEAN member countries to expedite the energy transition.

“Indonesia can serve as a model for the ASEAN region by spearheading the energy transition. ASEAN countries possess tremendous potential for joint efforts in advancing solar PV technologies and crafting policies that facilitate the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy, thereby amplifying climate targets,” Agus affirmed.

Renewable Energy Becomes Attraction for Investors

Semarang, 4 July 2023 – Electricity is not only the essential need for households, but also drives economic activity to a large industrial scale. In addition to the need for a reliable electricity supply, large-scale industries are starting to pay attention to the source of the electricity supply. In fact, for export-oriented industries, the production process needs to be carried out with minimal emissions in advance since the implementation of carbon footprint calculations on products exported to certain countries. This means that goods or components of goods produced n from fossil energy generation will receive a higher carbon tax.

Central Java Province, which is currently developing a number of regional industries, pays close attention to the development of alternative energy sources other than fossils. This was said by the Deputy Governor of Central Java, Taj Yasin Maimoen, in his remarks at the Central Java Renewable Energy Investment Forum 2023 which was organized by the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) in collaboration with the Central Java Energy and Mineral Resources Provincial Office, Tuesday 4 July 2023.

“The growth of industrial infrastructure is accompanied by high growth in energy needs. Currently it is not just energy, but energy that comes from new, renewable energy,” said Taj Yasin.

Taj Yasin added that Central Java has abundant potential for renewable energy, but its utilization has not been optimal. To drive the use of renewable energy, the Provincial Government of Central Java is promoting the installation of PV rooftops on government buildings.

“From the installation of rooftop PV in government buildings, it shows that there are 30-40% savings on electricity bills for the institutions that install them,” he said.

Previously, the Executive Director of IESR, Fabby Tumiwa, said that the availability of electricity from clean energy is the main attraction for investors to invest in one country.

“If we want to increase investment competitiveness, we must increase the availability of green energy. The supply of electricity from renewable energy is a new indicator for investors to invest their capital,” said Fabby.

Sakina Rosellasari, Head of the Central Java Investment and One-Stop Service Office (DPMPTSP), stated that Central Java is currently designing 23 projects to be offered to investors. Part of the project is related to the development of renewable energy.

“Investment interest is already approaching pre-pandemic times. We hope this meeting will improve communication and encourage investment realization in Central Java,” she said.

This trend is in line with the Indonesian Low Carbon Development study, that efforts to reduce GHG emissions must be carried out in an integrated manner in development plans to push Indonesia out of the middle-income country trap by ensuring economic growth of 5%.

What is Solar Energy and How is it Developed in Indonesia?

PLTS Atap

Jakarta, December 19, 2022 – The role of energy is critical for increasing economic activity and national security. Thus, energy management, including supply, utilization, and exploitation, should be carried out fairly, sustainably, optimally, and in an integrated manner. Moreover, Indonesia has ratified the Paris Agreement and submitted its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with an unconditional target of 31.89% in 2030 with its capabilities and a conditional target (with international support) of 43.2%.

Based on the Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia’s Energy System study released by IESR, Indonesia can achieve the target of the Paris Agreement being carbon neutral by 2050. This decade is essential because Indonesia must reach peak emissions in the energy sector by 2030 and reinforce a mix of renewable energy in the electricity to 45%.

Developing the renewable energy sector is a mitigation action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and support sustainable energy. Hence, Indonesia continues to intensify the use of renewable energy. Solar energy is one of the renewable energy choices that continue to be encouraged for its use in Indonesia.

Quoted from the Sustainable Professional Development Module for Solar and Wind Energy Conversion, Ministry of Education and Culture, solar energy is obtained by converting solar energy through specific equipment into resources in other forms. Furthermore, French scientist Edmond Becquerel discovered that certain materials would give off electricity sparks when sunlight struck in 1839. Even though the sun is located about 149 million kilometresr from the earth, its rays can be used as a renewable energy source. In solar panels, the sunlight is converted into electrical energy using photovoltaic technology (photovoltaic/PV).

Based on the Indonesia Solar Energy Outlook 2023 report issued by IESR, solar power will play an essential role in deep decarbonization in Indonesia in 2060 or sooner in 2050; at least 88% of installed power capacity will come from solar power in 2050. Unfortunately, the use of solar energy in Indonesia has only reached 0.2 GWp of installed capacity and will generate less than 1% of total electricity generation by the end of 2021.

However, Indonesia’s solar energy progress can be seen from the lower price of solar PV electricity obtained through a power purchase agreement (PPA) entered into by PT PLN (Persero) with Independent Power Producers (IPP). The cost of PPA solar PV has fallen by around 78% from US$0.25/kWh to US$0.056/kWh between 2015 and 2022. For this reason, IESR predicts that at least with the addition of large-scale solar PV projects, decreasingsolar module prices, and improving the investment climate, solar PV investment per unit prices will continue to fall, approaching the world price trend. In addition, in terms of project pipeline development for large-scale solar PV, there are currently eight projects with a total capacity of 585 MWp (which have been tendered).