Magnifying the Ambitious Climate Action from Business Sector

Direktur Eksekutif IESR

Jakarta, November 30, 2022 –  The Indonesian government needs to show strong attention to climate mitigation efforts by increasing commitment and may significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Fabby Tumiwa, stated that rising global temperatures are worsening the climate crisis. He conveyed his speech at the Astra Green Energy Summit 2022 with the theme “Real of Action on the Energy Transition Journey Towards a Sustainable Environment.”

“Since the United Nations Framework on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) document was agreed upon in 1992, most countries ratified its documents in 1994. Thus, all climate change negotiations are directed at preventing the earth’s global surface temperature increase,” said Fabby Tumiwa.

Quoting Climate Action Tracker 2022 data, said Fabby, Indonesia’s climate policies in the energy sector are deemed insufficient to withstand the increase in the average global temperature below 1.5°C as agreed at the COP 26 Summit in Glasgow in 2021. For this reason, Fabby argues that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must peak in 2030 and then decline if Indonesia wants to prevent a rising temperature above 2°C, which has far-reaching implications.

“This means ambitious action is needed, especially for G20 states responsible for global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Reducing GHG emissions must also be carried out by economic actors. If it is only the government’s responsibility for its reduction, I think it will be difficult,” explained Fabby Tumiwa.

Fabby explained that the decarbonization process needs to be carried out comprehensively because it is related to Indonesia’s energy supply structure. Indonesia’s primary energy supply for electricity generation is mainly based on fossil fuel. The increase in fuel consumption was also relatively high, marked by the rise in motorized vehicles.

“Since the last ten years, Indonesia has replaced fossil fuels with biofuels. Until 2021, the proportion of fuel substituted for biofuels has reached 14%. Thus, the use of low-carbon fuels needs to be increased to 40-60% in 2040. This means we need to encourage the use of synthetic fuels other than biofuels,” said Fabby Tumiwa.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister, Arifin Tasrif, said business entities are expected to be involved in accelerating the energy transition. For example, they apply energy efficiency throughout the business chain and develop technological innovations and clean industries. They are also expected to mitigate the impact of the energy transition in the business sector and supply chain.

“To overcome the obstacles to the energy transition, synergy between stakeholders, the government, the media, NGOs, and the private sector is needed to achieve zero emissions,” said Arifin.

IESR: Renewable Energy Integration in Electricity Plan Can Reach 129 GW by 2030

Jakarta, 24 November 2022- To be aligned with the GHG emission reduction target according to the Paris Agreement, the government and PLN need to achieve a renewable energy mix of up to 41% in the electricity system by 2030. However, until today the Indonesian government has only targeted 25% of the renewable energy mix by 2030. Technological innovation, competitive prices for renewable energy, and the potential for coal-fired power plants (CFPP) to become stranded assets are qualified factors for higher renewable energy penetration in eight years.

The Institute for Essential Services Reform issued its latest report entitled “Enabling high share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s power system by 2030” which analyzes the 2021-2030 electricity development plan (RUPTL), technological advances and prices, changes in fuel prices, and projections of electricity demand to provide more opportunities towards the integration of renewable energy into the electricity network in Indonesia. This study is based on the scenario of Indonesia’s energy system achieving net zero emissions in 2050, which is aligned with the target of limiting temperature rise below 1.5°C per the Paris Agreement. In this scenario, electricity growth is assumed to reach 4.5% and added to the additional electricity demand from accelerated electrification in the transportation and industrial sectors (heating).

Using a similar power system optimization model with PLN, IESR found that the capacity of renewable energy in the power grid in 2030 could be increased to 129 GW of renewable energy with 112.1 GW coming from solar energy, 9.2 GW hydropower, 5.2 GW geothermal, 1.5 GW wind turbine, and 1 GW of biomass in the combined Java-Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi systems. The renewable energy mix in the electricity sector is also projected to reach 32%, 35%, 35% and 51% respectively in the Java-Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi systems. Solar energy is dominant because of its highest potential, cheapest cost, and fastest installation period in any area, either on a roof or floating.

Meanwhile, the electricity mix from coal-fired power plants will significantly decrease to only 39% in the same year. Moreover, to overcome the variability and intermittency of renewable energy and maintain system reliability, Indonesia can optimize gas-fired power plants and build energy storage (batteries).

The findings from this study are far greater than the renewable energy in the 2021-2030 RUPTL, which only targets 20.9 GW.

“The results of this IESR study are very relevant to the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreement that was announced at the G20. The target of JETP is a 34% renewable energy mix in 2030. Through this study, it is shown that the penetration of renewable energy generators in our electricity system is possible without impacting system reliability and electricity production costs,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR.

The results of the IESR analysis show that even with high penetration of renewable energy, the reserve margin (the percentage of additional installed capacity to annual peak demand) remains at PLN’s ideal limit of at least around 30%. This study also conducts a power flow analysis and analysis of system frequency stability in the Java-Bali and Sulawesi electricity systems in 2030. As a result, it requires upgrading several substations so that power can be distributed properly. However, this need can be minimized by distributing the development of renewable energy generators. Frequency stability was still achieved and complied with Indonesia’s grid code.

One of the keys to integrating renewable energy is increasing the flexibility of network operations, including implementing a flexible CFPP operation.

“Renewable energy’s intermittency is a challenge, but there are many strategic options that can be studied to be implemented in Indonesia. For instance, by using energy storage such as batteries and also more accurately forecasting renewable energy. System operations need to be changed to accommodate this,” said Akbar Bagaskara, Main Author of the Enabling high share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s power system by 2030 report.

The capacity of the transmission and distribution network also needs to be increased to ensure a smooth supply of electricity from renewable energy, especially in the Java-Bali and Sulawesi systems.

IESR views that higher integration of renewable energy in the electricity system needs to be encouraged by policymakers in Indonesia by issuing regulations that support the acceleration of renewable energy development, accelerate electrification in the industrial sector, stipulate flexible PLTU operating regulations, and support the development of the domestic solar panel industry.

Furthermore, PLN as an electricity utility company needs to actively develop infrastructure and network operations to become more flexible network operations to enable high integration of renewable energy.

“There is a need to change the operating paradigm of the electricity system to flexible operation, no longer baseload. Of course, it is necessary to develop an operating framework for an electricity system that can provide incentives for assets that can provide services to maintain network reliability or ancillary services. The design of this framework needs to be prepared from now on so that it is ready to be implemented when the renewable energy mix begins to grow rapidly,” explained Deon Arinaldo, Manager of the Energy Transformation Program, IESR.

Peluncuran & Diskusi Laporan Perencanaan Sistem Tenaga Listrik yang Selaras dengan Persetujuan Paris

Siaran Tunda


Pendahuluan 

Indonesia telah meratifikasi Perjanjian Paris melalui UU No. 16/2016. Sebagai hasilnya, Indonesia terikat secara hukum untuk berkontribusi dalam perjuangan global perubahan iklim melalui upaya dan tindakan yang ambisius dalam memitigasi emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) dan membatasi peningkatan suhu global rata-rata di bawah 1,5 derajat C. Dalam salah satu hasil model iklim IPCC untuk jalur yang kompatibel dengan 1,5 derajat C, emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) global harus turun 45% pada tahun 2030 dibandingkan dengan tahun 2010 dan mencapai emisi nol bersih pada tahun 2050. Saat ini, Indonesia termasuk dalam 10 besar penghasil emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK) dan masih diproyeksikan untuk meningkatkan emisinya, dengan sektor energi sebagai penyumbang GRK tertinggi pada tahun 2030. 

Dengan pangsa pembangkit listrik sebesar 66% pada tahun 2021, pembangkit listrik tenaga batubara telah menjadi penyumbang utama emisi sektor energi (sekitar 40%), dan bahkan 90% dari emisi sektor listrik. RUPTL PLN terbaru (RUPTL hijau) masih mempertimbangkan penambahan 13,8 GW PLTU Batubara dalam satu dekade ke depan. Porsi energi terbarukan hanya akan meningkat menjadi sekitar 24% pada tahun 2030 menurut rencana yang sama, yang mengakibatkan peningkatan emisi sektor listrik (dan sektor energi) secara keseluruhan. Dengan demikian, hal ini jelas bertentangan dengan mandat Perjanjian Paris. 

Menurut studi Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), secara teknis dan ekonomis, emisi sektor energi di Indonesia layak secara teknis dan ekonomis agar sesuai dengan Persetujuan Paris dan mencapai emisi nol pada tahun 2050. Salah satu tonggak penting adalah bahwa pangsa energi terbarukan dalam pembangkit listrik harus mencapai hampir setengahnya pada tahun 2030. Pada saat yang sama, elektrifikasi sektor transportasi dan industri juga akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik total dan menciptakan ruang serta fleksibilitas yang diperlukan untuk integrasi energi terbarukan (variabel) yang tinggi. Dengan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik yang tinggi, kapasitas energi terbarukan dan pengembangan jaringan serta interkoneksi harus dikerahkan dalam kecepatan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, mencapai 140 GW pada tahun 2030 (peningkatan empat belas kali lipat dari kapasitas saat ini). 

Namun, integrasi energi terbarukan yang tinggi dalam sistem jaringan listrik berbasis kepulauan di Indonesia dianggap menantang. Perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik saat ini masih melihat sebagian kecil energi terbarukan, terutama energi terbarukan variabel (surya dan angin), yang akan beroperasi dalam sepuluh tahun ke depan. Selain itu, PLN sebagai operator jaringan listrik memiliki pengalaman yang terbatas dalam mengoperasikan jaringan listrik dengan porsi energi terbarukan yang tinggi. Studi dan pemodelan yang menunjukkan analisis tekno-ekonomi yang terperinci tentang pengoperasian energi terbarukan dengan porsi yang tinggi dalam sistem jaringan listrik nasional juga masih terbatas. 

Masih banyak tantangan lain yang perlu dihadapi. Hal ini menunjukkan pentingnya analisis komparatif perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik saat ini dengan perencanaan yang selaras dengan jalur 1,5 derajat C. Memahami perbedaan dalam hal biaya, tantangan teknis, pengurangan emisi, dan kelayakan dapat memperluas pilihan dalam perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik di masa depan di negara ini. Lebih jauh lagi, sebagaimana studi IESR Dekarbonisasi Mendalam Sistem Energi Indonesia menunjukkan, Indonesia dapat memperoleh manfaat tambahan seperti harga yang lebih kompetitif serta manfaat sosial-ekonomi lainnya (pekerjaan ramah lingkungan), sambil mengatasi krisis iklim secara bersamaan. 

Dengan latar belakang ini, IESR telah menyelesaikan analisis perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik, rencana perluasan kapasitas, dan uji keandalan sistem tenaga listrik dengan menggunakan PLEXOS dan DIgSILENT yang bertujuan untuk mengintegrasikan energi terbarukan untuk mengurangi emisi GRK secara keseluruhan dari sektor ini. IESR akan mengadakan webinar untuk meluncurkan laporan tersebut berjudul “Enabling high share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s power system by 2030: Alternative electricity development plan compatible with the Paris Agreement”, dan mengundang para pemangku kepentingan terkait untuk berdiskusi dan menyusun rekomendasi untuk dekarbonisasi sistem tenaga listrik. 

 

Tujuan

Tujuan dari peluncuran laporan dan webinar diskusi adalah sebagai berikut: 

  1. Untuk memberikan alternatif perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik berbasis penelitian yang dapat mendorong kemajuan Indonesia dalam upaya pengurangan emisi sektor energi kepada pemangku kepentingan yang lebih luas. 
  2. Untuk memberikan masukan bagi perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik yang diperbarui (RUPTL 2023-2032), yang diharapkan akan berjalan pada awal tahun 2023 
  3. Untuk mendiskusikan potensi tantangan dan peluang untuk mengatasi tantangan dalam mengintegrasikan pangsa energi terbarukan yang tinggi dalam sistem tenaga listrik. 

Materi Presentasi

Akbar Bagaskara – Penulis Studi, Peneliti Sistem Ketenagalistrikan, IESR

Enabling High Share of RE in Indonesia Power System

221124-Alternative-RUPTL-1

Unduh

Dadan Kusdiana – Plt Dirjen Ketenagalistrikan, Kementerian ESDM

Enabling High Share of RE in Indonesia Power System

221124-0016-PPT-Keynote-Speech-IESR-1

Unduh

 

COP27: The Race to Zero Emissions in 2050

Egypt, November 9, 2022 – The ambition of countries’ climate commitments to achieve their net zero is crucial by the middle of this century. The earth’s temperature has risen significantly to 1.1 degrees Celsius after pre-industrial levels. Measuring the policies and strategies of countries to achieve zero emissions needs to be done to encourage climate mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

Energy Transformation Program Manager of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) , Deon Arinaldo, at the COP27 side event in Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt, with the theme “Net-0 scenarios and How to Get Them Right” organized by the International Network of Energy Transition Think Tanks (INETTT) explained, Indonesia has realized the urgency of the energy transition. It can be seen from the existence of a low-carbon development strategy from the Ministry of National Development Planning of the Republic of Indonesia. The plan will show significant benefits when Indonesia achieves its conditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target by 2030. It starts with higher economic growth, job creation, and improving the quality of health.

However, Indonesia still provides significant fossil energy subsidies. Deon emphasized that fossil energy subsidy policies differ from efforts to make an energy transition and achieve decarbonization in the middle of this century.

“The Indonesian government’s policy of providing subsidies to shield the public will burden the state budget, especially with rising commodity prices in 2022. Energy subsidies are an “obstacle” to energy transformation, reformulation of energy subsidies is a priority agenda for the government,” said Deon.

This needs to be done by considering the best policy scenario for reducing emissions in the energy system, based on the IESR study entitled “Deep Decarbonization of Indonesia’s Energy System.” Deon recommends three stages of the best policy scenario: bending the greenhouse gas emissions curve and peaking emissions by 2030. Then,  removing a significant share of emissions through energy system transformation by 2045, achieving zero emissions through an increase in green synthetic fuel production, and decarbonize industry sector by 2050.

“With this strategy, achieving zero emissions by 2050 is technically and economically feasible. It opens up opportunities to improve climate policy. Decarbonization efforts have to simultaneously ramp up the overall energy system. This decade (2020-2030) is the critical period,” explained Deon.

Nhien Ngo To, Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition, said Vietnam had implemented a strategy of reducing emissions to net zero emissions by 2050. The plan sets the overall goal of adapting proactively and effectively. Then, minimize the vulnerability and damage caused by climate change.

“Unfortunately, there are still some challenges to face. Such as inefficient use of energy, high energy intensity, lack of financing, lack of skilled workforce for energy transition, and gaps in the coordination of key stakeholders,” said Nhien Ngo To.

Energy Programme Manager and Climate Finance Lead at GreenCape, Jack Radmore, said South Africa has a reasonably mature policy sector and plans related to a green economy and decarbonization. It could be seen in the national climate change response strategy since 2004, which has been improved and adapted over the years.

“South Africa has established a committee to accelerate the energy transition. The government has also adopted more ambitious emission reduction targets. Considering that 90 percent of electricity in South Africa still depends on coal-fired power plants with more than 600,000 people working in the mining sector,” stated Jack Radmore.

Al Kumba, Energy Transition Director, SHURA, stated that Turkey had taken significant steps in terms of decarbonizing the electricity sector over the past decade. Currently, 50 percent of installed power in Turkey comes from renewable energy. In terms of power generation, around 40 percent comes from renewable energy. However, Turkey’s energy mix is ​​still dependent on fossil fuels, only about 16 percent of which is supplied by renewable energy.

“Decarbonization is important for Turkey. Several concrete steps to realize decarbonization, such as Turkey has ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2021 and announced its ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2053. Turkey also has a green action plan to build its ports more environmentally friendly and expand forests and protected areas. Turkey is one of the countries that take the lead in fighting desertification and erosion,” said Al Kumba.

APLSI Declares Just Energy Transition, Supports Acceleration of Green Energy Mix

press release

Jakarta, 15 November 2022- Presidential Regulation No. 112/2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for Electricity Supply mandates the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) to develop a roadmap for the early retirement of the coal-fired power plants (CFPP). It is in line with Indonesia’s commitment to the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition declaration at the Conference of the Parties 26 Summit (COP26 Summit), which considers the early retirement of coal-fired power plants in the 2040s, with international funding and technical assistance, and achieving the Net Zero Emission (NZE) target by 2060 or earlier as stated by President Joko Widodo.

The Institute Essential Services Reform (IESR) views that the government’s goal needs to be supported by various parties, including Independent Power Producers (IPP), who currently operate more than 15 GW of power plants in Indonesia.

“Indonesia Independent Power Producers (APLSI) supports the Government of Indonesia’s plans and policies that encourage decarbonisation and energy transition. We are ready to transform to continue contributing to an independent, increasingly environmentally friendly and sustainable national electricity, to support the Indonesian Government’s Net Zero Emission target,” said Arthur Simatupang, Chairman of APLSI, at the declaration of the Just Energy Transition Initiative by Indonesian Power Producers organized by IESR in collaboration with APLSI in conjunction with the 2022 Indonesia G20 Summit in Bali. 

“APLSI wishes to optimize the role of the private sector as a government partner in building a reliable electricity system based on just energy transition by diversifying investment in power plants from various renewable energy sources whose potential is huge in Indonesia,” Arthur explained.

It has also been stated in the Expression of Interest between APLSI and the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin Indonesia) at the Kadin Net Zero Hub event at the B20 Indonesia Summit. At that event, Arthur mentioned that his party had signed an agreement to conduct an intensive joint study on the diversification of power plant investment so that the role of the private sector would be optimal in realizing low-carbon economic growth by partnering with the government in building a reliable, independent electricity system, and a just energy transition.

Furthermore, IESR said that a just energy transition would run with the availability of space for renewable energy development, including by terminating the operational period of CFPP more quickly.

“The IESR study found that to be consistent with limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C, all CFPPs, that are not equipped with carbon capture, must be retired before 2045. In the period 2022-2030, at least 9.2 GW of power plants must be retired, of which 4.2 GW comes from private electricity, without which it will be difficult to achieve NZE,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR.

On the same occasion, Rida Mulyana, Secretary General, MEMR, said the importance of partnership to decarbonise the energy system. He explained that based on Presidential Regulation 112/2022, Indonesia plans not to build new coal-fired power plants after 2030 except those that are committed or under construction.

Furthermore, Wanhar, Director of Electricity Program Development at the Directorate General of Electricity, MEMR outlined a roadmap for the early retirement of coal-fired power plants in Indonesia.

Through his presentation, Wanhar explained that the government also took various steps to achieve the NZE 2060 target, including ensuring the retirement of CFPP owned by IPP after the power purchase agreement (PPA) was ended, and Combined Cycle PP retired after the age of 30.  Furthermore, starting in 2030, there is an increasingly massive development of solar power plants, followed by wind power plants both on land and offshore starting in 2037.

However, Wanhar emphasized, several provisions need to be fulfilled in terminating the operational period of coal-fired power plants in Indonesia.

“Retirement of CFFP can only be done once grid reliability is ensured, with substitution from renewable replacement and/or transmission system installation, the assurance of just transition of a fair energy transition. There should not be any negative social impact from coal plant early retirement, affordable renewable energy generation prices, and the availability of international financing support,” Wanhar explained.

Based on IESR’s “Financing Indonesia’s Coal Phase-out” study with the Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, to retire 9.2 GW of coal-fired power plants by 2030, Indonesia needs international funding support to meet the cost of retiring the power plants, around USD 4.6 billion by 2030. 

Supporting decarbonisation efforts in the power sector, the Government of Indonesia will work with the International Partners Group (IPG) to realize investment plans to support the early retirement of coal-fired power plants as well as other low-carbon technologies. The cooperation will support the achievement of Indonesia’s electricity system decarbonisation targets, including achieving peak electricity sector emissions of 290 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030, preparing CFPP projects that must be retired early, and ensuring the achievement of a renewable energy mix of at least 34% by 2030.

“For the early retirement of coal-fired power plants, especially those owned by IPPs, to take place with the principle of just energy, the government must form a national commission or task force involving relevant government agencies by the end of this year. Its tasks include comprehensively assessing the list of coal-fired power plants that have the potential to be retired immediately, as well as renegotiating with IPPs,” explained Deon Arinaldo, Energy Transformation Programme Manager, IESR.

Deon added that CFPP contract negotiations between PLN and IPP must begin by considering the potential for additional costs without jeopardizing the investment climate in Indonesia. 

“The government also needs to assess the appropriate financing mechanism to retire coal-fired power plants owned by private power producers. The financing mechanism also needs to support the link between the financing of early retirement of CFPP and investment in renewable energy so that it can mobilize international financial support,” he concluded.

The Declaration of Supporting the Roadmap of Just Energy Transition was carried out to coincide with the G20 Summit. This is expected to provide a positive signal for the Indonesian Government’s leadership at the G20, which also highlights the energy transition or the transition from polluting energy to renewable energy as one of the main issues.

“Indonesia’s leadership in conducting early retirement of power plants to accelerate the energy transition will create a good precedent for other G20 countries.  The spirit to accelerate the end of CFPP operations through the declaration of IPPs  supported by the government and PLN will be an example for India, which will hold the G20 presidency in 2023 and become an example for other ASEAN countries in Indonesia’s leadership in ASEAN in 2023,” concluded Fabby Tumiwa.***

Points of declaration:

Support the Roadmap for a Just Energy Transition in Indonesia

  1. Willing to transform to continue to contribute to an independent national electricity that is increasingly environmentally friendly and sustainable to support the net zero emission target.
  2. Support the Indonesian government’s plans and policies that encourage decarbonisation and energy transition.
  3. Diversify investment in power generation from various alternative renewable energy sources, in which Indonesia has enormous potential.
  4. Committed to opening up opportunities for renewable green energy sources and a sustainable energy supply ecosystem.
  5. Optimizing the role of the private sector as a government partner in building a reliable electricity system and a just energy transition. 

Approaching the G20 Summit, Government Needs to be Consistently Calling for and Raising Climate Ambitions

Jakarta, 9 November 2022-The journey of the Indonesian G20 Presidency will end after the G20 summit in November 2022. Therefore, Indonesia needs to show strong attention to climate mitigation efforts, by increasing its commitment to significantly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Climate Transparency 2022 report shows Indonesia’s power sector which is dominated by fossil fuels (81%) and produces 62% of its electricity from coal, making the energy sector still the largest contributor to GHG emissions (43%), followed by the transportation sector (25%) in second place in 2021.

Besides that, Indonesia’s emission intensity of the power sector increased throughout the 2016-2021 period by 5.5% to 784.8 gCO2/kWh. This number is greater than the average emissions in the energy sector of G20 countries in the same period which decreased by 8.1% to 444.7 kWh. This is presumed economic activity that has returned rapidly after the pandemic. 

Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform, believes that the G20 countries which are responsible for 85% of the world’s GHG emissions, must take a greater role in drastically cutting GHG emissions. Globally, they must cut approximately 45% of GHGs at 2010 levels by 2030. Unfortunately, until now, none of the G20 countries has met this target, including Indonesia, which is the G20 president. 

“Along with the G20 meeting in Bali next week, it is necessary for G20 countries to accelerate the energy transition, moving away from fossil energy that is expensive, polluting and dangerous. Taking the energy transition as one of the G20 priority issues, President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) needs to remind G20 countries to be more ambitious in carrying out the energy transition, including Indonesia. The key to reducing emissions is to first, immediately reduce coal power plants and plan to phase out coal power plants, which must be done before 2040. Second, accelerate renewable energy to replace energy and encourage energy efficiency,” said Fabby.

Furthermore, Fabby implied the fossil subsidies, which are increasing every year and hindering the development of renewable energy and energy efficiency. He hopes that at the G20 Summit, President Jokowi can invite G20 countries to take a stand to cut fossil energy subsidies. 

Meanwhile, based on Climate Transparency 2022 calculations, Indonesia’s unconditional Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target will increase emissions by 421% above 1990 levels, or an average of 1,661 MtCO₂e by 2030. To stay below the 1.5°C temperature limit, Indonesia’s emissions by 2030 must be around 449 MtCO₂e, at an ambition gap of 1,212 MtCO₂e. All of these figures do not include emissions from land use.

Despite submitting the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in September 2022, the emission reduction targets in the emission sector are not at all consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. Based on the  Enhanced NDC, by 2030, the target level of unconditional emission (unconditional) NDCs in the energy sector will be 1,311 MtCO₂e, with a target of unconditional reduction of NDCs of 358 MTon CO₂eq. 

“The increase in emission reduction targets, especially in the energy sector, should be appreciated, but unfortunately, the increasing ambition is still far from achieving a trajectory of 1.5 degrees Celsius. In addition, the implementation is still far from the target that has been set,” explained Farah Vianda, Green Economy Program Officer, IESR. 

According to her, Indonesia’s commitment to gradually stop the use of coal-fired power plants and start the transition to renewable energy referred to in the declaration of ‘Global Coal to Clean Power Transition’ at COP26, needs to be realized immediately. Even Climate Transparency 2022 reveals that the energy transition process must equitably take place, one of which is,  by accommodating the interests of around 100,000 people working in the coal industry.

“The Indonesian government needs to facilitate a just transition for coal mining sector workers and ensure alternative sources of economic growth in areas dependent on fossil energy. The government can diversify the economy to prioritize investment in the clean energy sector, engage in social dialogue to ensure an inclusive transition, and implement carefully designed early mitigation actions,” Farah said.

Farah stated that every commitment must be realized, considering that Indonesia has signed the Silesian Declaration on Solidarity and Just Transition (COP24), but until now both policies to increase renewable energy and retiring coal-fired power plants are still at the middle level.

Furthermore, Climate Transparency 2022 encourages Indonesia to design a clear roadmap to phase out coal power and start the energy transition. The 2021-2030 Business Plan (RUPTL) still maintains the use of coal.

Climate Transparency identified several opportunities for Indonesia to increase its climate ambitions. First, Bappenas has developed a net zero emissions  2045 roadmap which is considered to provide economic and social benefits compared to the zero emissions target of 2060. Second, the energy sector’s high carbon intensity continues to increase. Third, the transportation sector accounts for 33% of final energy consumption, and 95% of this demand is met through oil. Strong policies to decarbonise the transport sector would help Indonesia achieve its net zero targets. 

Based on the evaluation of the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), Indonesia’s climate targets and policies are “highly insufficient”. The rating shows that Indonesia’s climate policies and commitments lead to rising rather than reducing emissions and are completely inconsistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. To get a better ranking, Indonesia needs to set more ambitious NDC targets and policies. Its unconditional NDC targets need to be brought well below its current policies to result in emissions close to present levels by 2030. Meanwhile, its conditional NDC targets need to be well below present levels in 2030.