Melalui publikasi Indonesia Clean Energy Outlook (ICEO), IESR telah melacak kemajuan penerapan energi bersih di Indonesia sejak 2017. Mulai tahun 2020, ICEO bertransformasi menjadi Indonesia Energy Transition Outlook (IETO), yang mencakup isu yang lebih luas dan pendalaman analisis.
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Indonesia Sustainable Finance Outlook (ISFO) 2023 adalah penelitian unggulan terbaru Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR). Laporan ini memberikan analisis yang komprehensif dan mendalam tentang pembiayaan berkelanjutan di Indonesia, dengan fokus pada sektor energi.
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Laporan ini bertujuan untuk memberikan analisis holistik seputar pengoperasian pembangkit listrik tenaga batu bara fleksibel (PLTU).
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Edisi kelima dari IETO ini mengumpulkan berbagai perspektif dari pemangku kepentingan di sektor energi dan mengurasinya dengan studi mendalam untuk menyampaikan analisa strategis mengenai bagaimana transisi energi menuju sistem energi rendah karbon bertransformasi di tanah air.
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Laporan ini memiliki dua tujuan. Pertama, memberikan wawasan dan meningkatkan kesadaran kepada para pemangku kepentingan terkait, terutama pembuat kebijakan dan lembaga keuangan, tentang risiko yang akan timbul dari transisi energi global dan berpotensi memengaruhi investasi batu bara dan sistem keuangan Indonesia. Kedua, laporan ini diharapkan dapat digunakan sebagai referensi untuk membawa isu terkait aset terdampar dari dampak keluarnya batubara menjadi prioritas jalur keuangan G20 oleh Presiden Indonesia pada tahun 2022. Dengan demikian, negara-negara G20 lainnya akan mampu. untuk memberikan perhatian lebih dan menghindari risiko.
Tulisan ini dibuat sebagai bagian dari upaya Climate Transparency, sebuah kemitraan internasional yang terdiri dari IESR dan 13 organisasi riset lain dan NGO yang membandingkan aksi iklim G20 – www.climate-transparency.org. Secara khusus, tulisan ini adalah salah satu upaya IESR dalam mendukung transisi batubara yang berkeadilan, dimana tulisan ini merupakan discussion paper dari laporan IESR yang berjudul “Indonesia’s Coal Dynamics: Toward A Just Energy Transition”. Tulisan ini didanai oleh International Climate Initiative (IKI). Kementerian Federal untuk Lingkungan, Konservasi Alam, dan Keamanan Nuklir (BMU) Jerman mendukung inisiatif ini berdasarkan keputusan yang diadopsi oleh German Bundestag.
The economy of Indonesia has shown a significant growth over recent decades. Indonesia is one largest economy in the world with GDP more than 1 trillion dollar, and the largest economy in Southeast Asia. Indonesia economy growth after the economic crisis, moving away from lower income country to middle income countries, with average Gross Domestic Product has reached USD 3500/capita.
Coal is the heart of Indonesia energy policies since late 1970s. Although Indonesia coal reserve is not the largest in the world, the coal endowment in Indonesia is relatively significant compare to other fossil resources. Total coal reserve is 22.6 billion ton or 2.2% of Introduction total global reserve (BP 2018).1 Drive by the abundance of this reserve the government has set policy to increase the use of coal for generating electricity as stipulated in the various National Energy Policy (NEP) documents issued since 1980s. In NEP 2014, coal is set to contribute 30% of the total national primary energy mix by 2025 in which the total energy supply is expected to reach 400 million ton oil equivalent (TOE). Not only for the electricity, the government also plans to use coal for substituting oil and LPG to be used for transport and cooking.
How Renewable Energy Can Power Java-Bali and Sumatera
Indonesia is the world’s 4th most populous country on a continuous growth trajectory. To supply the increasing electricity demand, the government is emphasizing the role of fossil, and, in particular, coal-fired generation, which is supposed to grow to 65% of total generation. At the same time, it stipulates that by 2025, Renewable energy shall make up 23% of the primary energy mix, up from 8% today. Policy focus is on hydro and geothermal resources, while solar and wind power plays only a negligible role.
Globally, the trend is very different: power systems around the world are increasingly being shaped by renewables. Solar and wind-driven by significant technology cost reduction – have been at the forefront of power sector investment for years and will continue to play a decisive role in modernizing and decarbonizing power systems globally.
Against this background, we conducted a model-based powers system analysis, performed with the PLEXOS model which is widely used for power sector analysis. The study focuses on the Java-Bali and Sumatra systems, which is where the majority of the population lives and about 90% of the electricity is produced and consumed.
The model assesses both the demand and supply dimensions of the power system. Looking ten years ahead, we have assessed different pathways for Indonesia’s power system: what are the impacts of a moderate electricity demand growth on investment and power plant utilization? What is the impact of adding considerable shares of wind and solar capacity to system cost, and how will the system ensure the security of supply?
Indonesia is the world’s 4th most populous country on a continuous growth trajectory. To supply the increasing electricity demand, the government is emphasizing the role of fossil, and, in particular coal-fired generation, which is supposed to grow to 65% of total generation. At the same time, it stipulates that by 2025, Renewable energy shall make up 23% of primary energy mix, up from 8% today. Policy focus is on hydro and geothermal resources, while solar and wind power play only a negligible role.
Globally, the trend is very different: power systems around the world are increasingly being shaped by renewables. Solar and wind-driven by significant technology cost reduction – have been at the forefront of power sector investment for years and will continue to play the decisive role in modernizing and decarbonizing power systems globally.
Against this background, we conducted a model-based powers system analysis, performed with the PLEXOS model which is widely used for power sector analysis. The study focuses on the Java-Bali and Sumatra systems, which is where the majority of the population lives and about 90% of the electricity is produced and consumed. The model assesses both the demand and supply dimensions of the power system. Looking ten years ahead, we have assessed different pathways for the Indonesia’s power system: what are the impacts of a moderate electricity demand growth on investment and power plant utilisation? What is the impact of adding considerable shares of wind and solar capacity to system cost, and how will the system ensure security of supply?
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