Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Service Reform (IESR), said the new energy prices through central Government could unbalance the level playing between the new and renewable energy sectors.
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Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Service Reform (IESR), said the government’s targets needed to be accompanied by accurate progress plans.
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Jakarta, 24 November 2022- To be aligned with the GHG emission reduction target according to the Paris Agreement, the government and PLN need to achieve a renewable energy mix of up to 41% in the electricity system by 2030. However, until today the Indonesian government has only targeted 25% of the renewable energy mix by 2030. Technological innovation, competitive prices for renewable energy, and the potential for coal-fired power plants (CFPP) to become stranded assets are qualified factors for higher renewable energy penetration in eight years.
The Institute for Essential Services Reform issued its latest report entitled “Enabling high share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s power system by 2030” which analyzes the 2021-2030 electricity development plan (RUPTL), technological advances and prices, changes in fuel prices, and projections of electricity demand to provide more opportunities towards the integration of renewable energy into the electricity network in Indonesia. This study is based on the scenario of Indonesia’s energy system achieving net zero emissions in 2050, which is aligned with the target of limiting temperature rise below 1.5°C per the Paris Agreement. In this scenario, electricity growth is assumed to reach 4.5% and added to the additional electricity demand from accelerated electrification in the transportation and industrial sectors (heating).
Using a similar power system optimization model with PLN, IESR found that the capacity of renewable energy in the power grid in 2030 could be increased to 129 GW of renewable energy with 112.1 GW coming from solar energy, 9.2 GW hydropower, 5.2 GW geothermal, 1.5 GW wind turbine, and 1 GW of biomass in the combined Java-Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi systems. The renewable energy mix in the electricity sector is also projected to reach 32%, 35%, 35% and 51% respectively in the Java-Bali, Sumatra, Kalimantan and Sulawesi systems. Solar energy is dominant because of its highest potential, cheapest cost, and fastest installation period in any area, either on a roof or floating.
Meanwhile, the electricity mix from coal-fired power plants will significantly decrease to only 39% in the same year. Moreover, to overcome the variability and intermittency of renewable energy and maintain system reliability, Indonesia can optimize gas-fired power plants and build energy storage (batteries).
The findings from this study are far greater than the renewable energy in the 2021-2030 RUPTL, which only targets 20.9 GW.
“The results of this IESR study are very relevant to the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) agreement that was announced at the G20. The target of JETP is a 34% renewable energy mix in 2030. Through this study, it is shown that the penetration of renewable energy generators in our electricity system is possible without impacting system reliability and electricity production costs,” said Fabby Tumiwa, Executive Director of IESR.
The results of the IESR analysis show that even with high penetration of renewable energy, the reserve margin (the percentage of additional installed capacity to annual peak demand) remains at PLN’s ideal limit of at least around 30%. This study also conducts a power flow analysis and analysis of system frequency stability in the Java-Bali and Sulawesi electricity systems in 2030. As a result, it requires upgrading several substations so that power can be distributed properly. However, this need can be minimized by distributing the development of renewable energy generators. Frequency stability was still achieved and complied with Indonesia’s grid code.
One of the keys to integrating renewable energy is increasing the flexibility of network operations, including implementing a flexible CFPP operation.
“Renewable energy’s intermittency is a challenge, but there are many strategic options that can be studied to be implemented in Indonesia. For instance, by using energy storage such as batteries and also more accurately forecasting renewable energy. System operations need to be changed to accommodate this,” said Akbar Bagaskara, Main Author of the Enabling high share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s power system by 2030 report.
The capacity of the transmission and distribution network also needs to be increased to ensure a smooth supply of electricity from renewable energy, especially in the Java-Bali and Sulawesi systems.
IESR views that higher integration of renewable energy in the electricity system needs to be encouraged by policymakers in Indonesia by issuing regulations that support the acceleration of renewable energy development, accelerate electrification in the industrial sector, stipulate flexible PLTU operating regulations, and support the development of the domestic solar panel industry.
Furthermore, PLN as an electricity utility company needs to actively develop infrastructure and network operations to become more flexible network operations to enable high integration of renewable energy.
“There is a need to change the operating paradigm of the electricity system to flexible operation, no longer baseload. Of course, it is necessary to develop an operating framework for an electricity system that can provide incentives for assets that can provide services to maintain network reliability or ancillary services. The design of this framework needs to be prepared from now on so that it is ready to be implemented when the renewable energy mix begins to grow rapidly,” explained Deon Arinaldo, Manager of the Energy Transformation Program, IESR.
Pendahuluan
Indonesia telah meratifikasi Perjanjian Paris melalui UU No. 16/2016. Sebagai hasilnya, Indonesia terikat secara hukum untuk berkontribusi dalam perjuangan global perubahan iklim melalui upaya dan tindakan yang ambisius dalam memitigasi emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) dan membatasi peningkatan suhu global rata-rata di bawah 1,5 derajat C. Dalam salah satu hasil model iklim IPCC untuk jalur yang kompatibel dengan 1,5 derajat C, emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (GRK) global harus turun 45% pada tahun 2030 dibandingkan dengan tahun 2010 dan mencapai emisi nol bersih pada tahun 2050. Saat ini, Indonesia termasuk dalam 10 besar penghasil emisi gas rumah kaca (GRK) dan masih diproyeksikan untuk meningkatkan emisinya, dengan sektor energi sebagai penyumbang GRK tertinggi pada tahun 2030.
Dengan pangsa pembangkit listrik sebesar 66% pada tahun 2021, pembangkit listrik tenaga batubara telah menjadi penyumbang utama emisi sektor energi (sekitar 40%), dan bahkan 90% dari emisi sektor listrik. RUPTL PLN terbaru (RUPTL hijau) masih mempertimbangkan penambahan 13,8 GW PLTU Batubara dalam satu dekade ke depan. Porsi energi terbarukan hanya akan meningkat menjadi sekitar 24% pada tahun 2030 menurut rencana yang sama, yang mengakibatkan peningkatan emisi sektor listrik (dan sektor energi) secara keseluruhan. Dengan demikian, hal ini jelas bertentangan dengan mandat Perjanjian Paris.
Menurut studi Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), secara teknis dan ekonomis, emisi sektor energi di Indonesia layak secara teknis dan ekonomis agar sesuai dengan Persetujuan Paris dan mencapai emisi nol pada tahun 2050. Salah satu tonggak penting adalah bahwa pangsa energi terbarukan dalam pembangkit listrik harus mencapai hampir setengahnya pada tahun 2030. Pada saat yang sama, elektrifikasi sektor transportasi dan industri juga akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik total dan menciptakan ruang serta fleksibilitas yang diperlukan untuk integrasi energi terbarukan (variabel) yang tinggi. Dengan pertumbuhan permintaan listrik yang tinggi, kapasitas energi terbarukan dan pengembangan jaringan serta interkoneksi harus dikerahkan dalam kecepatan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, mencapai 140 GW pada tahun 2030 (peningkatan empat belas kali lipat dari kapasitas saat ini).
Namun, integrasi energi terbarukan yang tinggi dalam sistem jaringan listrik berbasis kepulauan di Indonesia dianggap menantang. Perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik saat ini masih melihat sebagian kecil energi terbarukan, terutama energi terbarukan variabel (surya dan angin), yang akan beroperasi dalam sepuluh tahun ke depan. Selain itu, PLN sebagai operator jaringan listrik memiliki pengalaman yang terbatas dalam mengoperasikan jaringan listrik dengan porsi energi terbarukan yang tinggi. Studi dan pemodelan yang menunjukkan analisis tekno-ekonomi yang terperinci tentang pengoperasian energi terbarukan dengan porsi yang tinggi dalam sistem jaringan listrik nasional juga masih terbatas.
Masih banyak tantangan lain yang perlu dihadapi. Hal ini menunjukkan pentingnya analisis komparatif perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik saat ini dengan perencanaan yang selaras dengan jalur 1,5 derajat C. Memahami perbedaan dalam hal biaya, tantangan teknis, pengurangan emisi, dan kelayakan dapat memperluas pilihan dalam perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik di masa depan di negara ini. Lebih jauh lagi, sebagaimana studi IESR Dekarbonisasi Mendalam Sistem Energi Indonesia menunjukkan, Indonesia dapat memperoleh manfaat tambahan seperti harga yang lebih kompetitif serta manfaat sosial-ekonomi lainnya (pekerjaan ramah lingkungan), sambil mengatasi krisis iklim secara bersamaan.
Dengan latar belakang ini, IESR telah menyelesaikan analisis perencanaan sistem tenaga listrik, rencana perluasan kapasitas, dan uji keandalan sistem tenaga listrik dengan menggunakan PLEXOS dan DIgSILENT yang bertujuan untuk mengintegrasikan energi terbarukan untuk mengurangi emisi GRK secara keseluruhan dari sektor ini. IESR akan mengadakan webinar untuk meluncurkan laporan tersebut berjudul “Enabling high share of renewable energy in Indonesia’s power system by 2030: Alternative electricity development plan compatible with the Paris Agreement”, dan mengundang para pemangku kepentingan terkait untuk berdiskusi dan menyusun rekomendasi untuk dekarbonisasi sistem tenaga listrik.
Tujuan
Tujuan dari peluncuran laporan dan webinar diskusi adalah sebagai berikut:
“Enabling High Share of RE in Indonesia Power System”
221124-Alternative-RUPTL-1“Enabling High Share of RE in Indonesia Power System”
221124-0016-PPT-Keynote-Speech-IESR-1
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